I think the current forecast is a reasonable first approximation for a three day forecast. The model you propose is more accurate but requires many more paramet

I think the current forecast is a reasonable first approximation for a three day forecast. The model you propose is more accurate but requires many more parameters, each with their own error bands. I think you are looking at a very complex rapidly evolving situation characterized by an eventual transition between exponential growth and S-curve transition that is very hard to predict. The chart now indicates the forecast points and assumes 3 days of exponential growth, which until the virus is contained is a reasonable three day forecast. I have no affiliation with the author of the chart but appreciate the thought and effort that went into it.