skmurphy

53 ms·

631.
by skmurphy 7y ago
#3 was to show what can happen in one hospital. These patients are hard to transfer. Lombardy is about 9200 sq mi. (about 100 miles square). If you need a ventilator you may not be able to withstand a 50 mile ambulance ride. But I concede I
632.
by skmurphy 7y ago
I have not read anything that indicates a cross-immunity between the Wuhan 2019 SARS and Guangdong 2002 SARS.
633.
by skmurphy 7y ago
Here are two reports that would indicate that the standard of care has been substantially reduced https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-h... "Doctors and nurses are unable to te
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by skmurphy 7y ago
My comment was directed at age structure of population accounting for difference in mortality, complicated by effective collapse of medical care in certain regions of Italy that meant severe cases that could have been managed because critic
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Interesting but a lot of medical jargon. It would be very interesting to see this translated into "plain English."
636.
by skmurphy 7y ago
My hypothesis is that Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore had to contend with earlier SARS outbreak and responded more quickly and comprehensively with contact tracing, social distancing.
637.
by skmurphy 7y ago
If you factor in collapse of medical services -- Italy ran out of ventilators / ICU beds--the gap becomes clearer. You have to look at over 60 as more likely to be hospitalized, putting strain on medical system.
638.
by skmurphy 7y ago
You make a reasonable argument. In 2003-6 I helped out Viet Cervical cancer project on screening models for Pap smears to detect cervical cancer. Vietnamese incidence was high. Vietnamese public health organization was well organized and ef
639.
by skmurphy 7y ago
Level of testing / surveillance is not clear. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ They have run about 2400 test which is 24 per million in population (on a par with US which is wr
640.
by skmurphy 7y ago
Population is about 5 million. I think a key effect is to reduce their margin for error.
641.
by skmurphy 7y ago
Key points: On the second floor of a residential building in northwest Wuhan, John Zhu has made his home a fortress against the virus. His wife and 13-year-old son have not stepped out of the apartment in 46 days. He has emerged only briefl
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Insomnia, fear and isolation: Inside one Wuhan apartment, virus toll on healthy(theglobeandmail.com)
2 points by skmurphy 7y ago|1 comments
643.
by skmurphy 7y ago
She was a cook who did not wash her hands thoroughly after defecating. Salmonella typhi bacteria causes typhoid and is excreted in feces. She transferred it into cold food--e.g. salads, peach ice cream--that she prepared (cooking kills the
644.
by skmurphy 7y ago
That's very different from the martial law that was effectively imposed in China. If you don't follow the law in most countries you will subject to sanctions, it's no different in Singapore. Typhoid Mary was subjected to forc
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Singapore offers a compelling counter example entailing enlisting voluntary cooperation, rigorous testing and contact tracing, price controls on masks. I don't think China's fundamentally totalitarian / martial law approach i
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by skmurphy 7y ago
It's the potential for exponential growth that has people concerned: look at growth rate of new cases in Korea, Italy, and Iran in last two weeks. US is harder to judge due to lack of testing, may be experiencing the same case rate gro
647.
by skmurphy 7y ago
Happy to collaborate if it's of interest. Here are some related posts. Constructive Pessimism https://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2016/09/07/constructive-pessim... How to Tell When Your Team Has a Workabl
648.
by skmurphy 7y ago
It's a thought provoking post. One refinement is that there are a number of earlier challenges you faced that are now "solved problems" so some of the squares should be marked blue instead of black or white because it's
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by skmurphy 7y ago
I interviewed the founder here https://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2019/08/12/tim-lombard-launche...
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by skmurphy 7y ago
you should take a look at https://www.pcbevo.com/ I think it offers analytics that complement your visualization.
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by skmurphy 7y ago
This is a fantastic insight. I have included it in my "quotes for entrepreneurs collected in Feb 2020." https://www.skmurphy.com/blog/2020/02/29/quotes-for-entrepre...
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Practical advice with links to more information. Additional updates will be posted on https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hYPrTMKfcEFux2rETlK07TAm... Probably the single most important "prediction" based
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by skmurphy 7y ago
experience in Singapore with a similar level of active surveillance argues that they would have been able to contain it except for getting unlucky with "patient 31."
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by skmurphy 7y ago
key graf: South Korea has announced hundreds of new coronavirus cases in the space of only a few days and raised its infectious disease alert to the highest level. The surge in cases has centered around two main clusters from a church in Da
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South Korean Clusters: How coronavirus cases exploded in churches and hospitals(graphics.reuters.com)
15 points by skmurphy 7y ago|4 comments
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by skmurphy 7y ago
I think it's more complicated than this. I think the article is using two terms interchangeably that have very different meaning: + pattern matching - matching a series of events or a system state against an existing inventory of model
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Key grafs: objectives and conclusions. Objectives: To examine the implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions for epidemic mitigation in 43 cities in the continental United States from September 8, 1918, through February 22, 1919, and
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Nonpharmaceutical Interventions by US Cities During 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic(jamanetwork.com)
2 points by skmurphy 7y ago|1 comments
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by skmurphy 7y ago
Real rates are probably more nuanced with many under 50 at very low risk and those above 60 at higher risk. A serious case can present as a viral pneumonia, if there is a break down in health care system and those who need oxygen on a tempo
660.
by skmurphy 7y ago
Assume a pandemic. In other words, assume you are going to get it and maximize chance of surviving. From what we know so far, many have very mild cases, some have severe to very severe. Some die from disease directly (e.g. loss of ling func

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