skepticATX

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61.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Completely agree. I think the AGI fantasy that took the world by storm a year and a half ago has died out. Of course, there are still true believers in these companies. They were true believers years and decades ago. But everyone who was su
62.
by skepticATX 2y ago
It really seems like executives have internally become disillusioned with the AGI fantasy. They’ll keep selling it, of course (although I have noticed quite the drop off in this type of language recently), but they don’t actually believe it
63.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Just the opinion of an outsider, so not worth very much. But Ilya seemed to be one of the few who actually believed in the mission. I’m sure it was hard for him to watch the company become so product focused. OpenAI under Sam strikes me as
64.
by skepticATX 2y ago
OpenAI hardly released gpt-4o. The demo yesterday was clearly a rushed response to I/O. It’s quite possible that Google will ship multi-modality features faster than OpenAI will.
65.
by skepticATX 2y ago
All of that is awesome, and makes for a better product. But it’s also primarily an engineering effort. What matters here is an increase in intelligence. And we’re not seeing that aside from very minor capability increases. We’ll see if they
66.
by skepticATX 2y ago
The increased expectations are a direct result of LLM proponents continually hyping exponential capabilities increase.
67.
by skepticATX 2y ago
Very impressive demo, but not really a step change in my opinion. The hype from OpenAI employees was on another level, way more than was warranted in my opinion. Ultimately, the promise of LLM proponents is that these models will get expone
68.
by skepticATX 3y ago
No. Humans can do System 2 thinking. Quite frankly this view ignores decades of cognitive science that clearly demonstrates that the brain is not just predicting next tokens.
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by skepticATX 3y ago
Mustafa wasn’t exactly on his best behavior at DeepMind, if the allegations are to be believed. It really is surprising that Microsoft would hire him.
70.
by skepticATX 3y ago
It would seem that Microsoft doesn’t care about the history of abuse allegations at DeepMind.
71.
by skepticATX 3y ago
The results really aren’t striking enough that it’s clear that this model blows GPT-4 away. It seems roughly equivalent, give or take a bit. Why can we still not easily surpass a (relatively) ancient model?
72.
by skepticATX 3y ago
> humanity, given 1000 years The problem is that this makes almost anything sound reasonable, besides things that violate the laws of physics. I don't think that thinking this far out is anything but pure speculation. Whether the me
73.
by skepticATX 3y ago
The predominate view of AI is that it is essentially magic. Which of course couldn’t be further from the truth. But I find these arguments much easier to understand if you look at it through that lens. Of course magic can cure cancer becaus
74.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Right. And the industry has slowly realized this. The "AGI" hype has died down since reaching a fever pitch when GPT-4 was released. Result after result has shown that LLMs have extreme difficulty generalizing beyond what they&#x2
75.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Seems like quite the overreaction to a research demo. Yes, it will get better. But generating anything close to coherent film / television show is a tall task. For all of the progress in image generation we still seem somewhat stagnant
76.
by skepticATX 3y ago
We don't have to treat humans and machines the same. Even if it were true that these models learn exactly like humans (which is patently false), we can still differentiate between the two. Society is built by and for humans. If we wa
77.
by skepticATX 3y ago
I don't know if it's illegal, because I'm not a lawyer. I do know that it is completely unethical. A few large companies should not be able to package up and sell the totality of humanity's creative output at the expense
78.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Quite frankly, using generative AI to screen candidates should be illegal until/unless the technology becomes more steerable and explainable. It's not a question of if these technologies are biased, it's only a question of
79.
by skepticATX 3y ago
> it won’t be made by typing your idea into DALL-E, it’ll happen with complex workflows on fine-tuned models. I'm not convinced that this is what will happen long-term, but if it is, I'd completely agree that it's a new ar
80.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Photography still takes a ton of skill though. It's still ultimately a human creation. AI art is the antithesis of this.
81.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Agreed. I think that the concern about disinformation stemming from AI images/video misses the bigger picture. Humanity will adapt to these new technologies. We'll begin to trust what we see less and less. Which will prevent us fr
82.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Many of the points made in this article apply to generative AI specifically. Which makes sense, because it's the flavor of the decade. But I think it's worth pointing that out, because AI does not inherently have to be inaccessi
83.
by skepticATX 3y ago
This is what lots of folks said about image generation. Which is now in many ways “solved”. And society has easily adapted to it. The same will happen with video generation. The reality is that people are a lot more resourceful / smart
84.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Plugins were a failure. GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more. It's not even clear that
85.
by skepticATX 3y ago
In most ways the lives of middle class Americans are better than that of their counterparts 30 years. We have an idealized view of what prior generations’ middle class looked like. Home ownership is the one exception. We need to build dense
86.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Yann has been by far the most clear-headed of all the AI leaders since the ChatGPT hype started. I’m not a huge fan of Meta but it’s hard not to like the work they are doing in AI. High expectations for their future as long as Yann is aroun
87.
by skepticATX 3y ago
I don’t think that’s Meta’s viewpoint, considering FAIR is run by Yann LeCun who has been quite vocal about the limitations of what we currently have.
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by skepticATX 3y ago
The “Google is going downhill” narrative only exists in the tech bubble. No one actually thinks this way in the real world. Generative AI features can enhance search somewhat but aren’t a replacement. It’s not enough of a driver on its own
89.
by skepticATX 3y ago
Every single human has abstractions that are unique to them. Your world model isn’t the same as mine. It’s just that usually these abstractions are fuzzy and hard to formalize, so they aren’t shared. It doesn’t mean that they don’t exist.
90.
by skepticATX 3y ago
This is a surprisingly balanced article, which I no longer expect to come out of Microsoft. I suspect that companies focusing on augmentation instead of replacement will be much more successful in the long run. Good to see that GitHub at le

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