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It really seems like executives have internally become disillusioned with the AGI fantasy. They’ll keep selling it, of course (although I have noticed quite the

It really seems like executives have internally become disillusioned with the AGI fantasy. They’ll keep selling it, of course (although I have noticed quite the drop off in this type of language recently), but they don’t actually believe it any longer.

famouswaffles 2y ago
Exxon executives in the 80s disbelieved in climate change, too, despite reports from their internal "safety" teams that it was going to be a big problem. Forget Climate Change, there's a reason the saying, "safety regulations are written in blood" exist. It's not that nobody ever forsees these issues, it's that people have a tendency to not care about future issues until they become present issues, no matter how sound the warning. Nobody except these execs know if they're really disillusioned with the AGI Fantasy or if they just don't care about stalling business. As things stand, Open AI's charter incentivizes downplaying AGI for business gains.
- asadotzler 2y ago
  They didn't disbelieve in climate change. They knew it was happening because their own scientists told them and so they canned half of those scientists, promoted the other half to generate bullshit "science" to counter the earlier reports and give the executives an excuse for their board and continued greed.
mupuff1234 2y ago
It might be confirmation bias, but I do think it's becoming more and more clear that OpenAI is struggling with improving the models beyond the GPT-4 level.
- jordanb 2y ago
  Just like with every previous AI boom/winter cycle 1) you get an amazing demo that blows everybody's nips off after working in obscurity for many years. 2) everyone thinks that, because they just learned about the current state of the art it must have just been invented, and draws a mental line to AGI with a slope based on assumed rather than actual rate of progress 3) the grifters at the top capitalize on the hype to kite a whole bunch of cheques. 4) 18-24 months of everyone paying attention to every little micro advancement makes people realize that progress is actually as slow as it's ever been 5) welcome to the next AI winter.
  - mptest 2y ago
    In human compatible by stuart russel he chronicles all the previous cycles. After deep blue, 'expert systems' even earlier - What I don't remember is if he describes the relative level of investment in each "boom" phase. I wonder if the level of investment was near comparable ever to what microsoft and google and fb etc are spending now on training foundation models. I feel like the money guys really believe it this time, given the money we're seeing still being poured in, and it's not slowing down yet (please correct me if I'm wrong). but also I am biased as I love the idea of agi and desperately want this time to be different

famouswaffles 2y ago

Exxon executives in the 80s disbelieved in climate change, too, despite reports from their internal "safety" teams that it was going to be a big problem. Forget Climate Change, there's a reason the saying, "safety regulations are written in blood" exist. It's not that nobody ever forsees these issues, it's that people have a tendency to not care about future issues until they become present issues, no matter how sound the warning. Nobody except these execs know if they're really disillusioned with the AGI Fantasy or if they just don't care about stalling business. As things stand, Open AI's charter incentivizes downplaying AGI for business gains.

asadotzler 2y ago
They didn't disbelieve in climate change. They knew it was happening because their own scientists told them and so they canned half of those scientists, promoted the other half to generate bullshit "science" to counter the earlier reports and give the executives an excuse for their board and continued greed.

mupuff1234 2y ago

It might be confirmation bias, but I do think it's becoming more and more clear that OpenAI is struggling with improving the models beyond the GPT-4 level.

jordanb 2y ago
Just like with every previous AI boom/winter cycle 1) you get an amazing demo that blows everybody's nips off after working in obscurity for many years. 2) everyone thinks that, because they just learned about the current state of the art it must have just been invented, and draws a mental line to AGI with a slope based on assumed rather than actual rate of progress 3) the grifters at the top capitalize on the hype to kite a whole bunch of cheques. 4) 18-24 months of everyone paying attention to every little micro advancement makes people realize that progress is actually as slow as it's ever been 5) welcome to the next AI winter.
- mptest 2y ago
  In human compatible by stuart russel he chronicles all the previous cycles. After deep blue, 'expert systems' even earlier - What I don't remember is if he describes the relative level of investment in each "boom" phase. I wonder if the level of investment was near comparable ever to what microsoft and google and fb etc are spending now on training foundation models. I feel like the money guys really believe it this time, given the money we're seeing still being poured in, and it's not slowing down yet (please correct me if I'm wrong). but also I am biased as I love the idea of agi and desperately want this time to be different