21 ms·

Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Plugins were a failure. GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. GPT-4

Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Plugins were a failure. GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more. It's not even clear that they're doing great research, because they don't publish. GPT-5 has to be incredibly good at this point, and I'm not sure that it will be.

rey0927 3y ago
until you get new architectures it's all gonna be big datasets and 7 trillions
15457345234 3y ago
> Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Good. I have no idea what's really going on inside that company but the way the staff were acting on twitter when Altman got the push was genuinely scary, major red flags, bad vibes, you name it, it reeked of it.
- rendall 3y ago
  What do you mean? How were they acting? I was surprised and touched by their loyalty, but maybe I missed something you noticed.
  - Sharlin 3y ago
    It's not clear to me how many of the undersigned did so under some degree of duress. Apparently there was a lot of pressure from the senior employees (those who had the most $$$ to lose) to sign.
    - earthnail 3y ago
      Well, to be fair, the board just tried to evaporate a lot of $$$ from most employees. Any unionising effort consists of employees convincing other employees to join them. Some people will care more about the union's goals than others, and you can be certain that those who care more will pester those that care less to join their cause. What happened at OpenAI was not a union effort, but I believe the comparison is excellent to understand normal dynamics of employee-based efforts.
  - doktrin 3y ago
    Like a cult reciting their vows of allegiance.
    - gkbrk 3y ago
      Literally reciting too. To the point of copy-pasting the same tweets.
  - Jensson 3y ago
    > I was surprised and touched by their loyalty They were loyal to money, nothing to be touched by.
- osigurdson 3y ago
  It lost a little of its cool factor. However, they provide a nearly essential service at this point. While it is easy to underestimate, I suspect this is already have a measurable impact on global GDP.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - 15457345234 3y ago
    > I suspect this is already have a measurable impact on global GDP. Yeah putting people out of work on an industrial scale is probably gonna have a pretty big effect on global GDP
    - osigurdson 3y ago
      Is inefficiency the path to economic greatness and quality of life improvements? I suspect no.
      - 15457345234 3y ago
        Probably the answer to that question is yes. Because a large number of people born aren't as intelligent as a really good LLM but unless you're intending to leave them to starve (hi to all the e/acc peeps out there, I hate you!) you need to create a system with inefficiencies so that they don't just litter the street begging and dying.
- Ringz 3y ago
  It seems as though everyone at OpenAI is advised by an unfiltered ChatGPT in their daily work and communication. /s
- msp26 3y ago
  For me it was Ilya burning a wooden effigy that represented 'unaligned' AI. Of course the firing and twitter stuff too. Something's fucked in this company for sure.
roody15 3y ago
Running Ollama with a 80gb mistral model works as well if not better than ChatGPT 3.5. This is a good thing for the world IMO as the magic is no longer held just OpenAI. The speed at which competitors have caught up in even the last 3 months is astounding.
- huytersd 3y ago
  But no one cares about 3.5. It’s an order of magnitude worse than 4. An order of magnitude is a lot harder to catch up with.
  - roody15 3y ago
    Yeah but for how long… at this rate I would expect some of the freely distributed models to hit gpt4 levels in as little as 3-6 months.
    - int_19h 3y ago
      I've heard claims like that 6 months ago. But so far nobody is even in the same ballpark. And not just freely distributed models, but proprietary ones backed by big money, as well. It really makes one wonder what kind of secret sauce OpenAI has. Surely it can't just be all that compute that Microsoft bought them, since Google could easily match that, and yet...
      - qeternity 3y ago
        > But so far nobody is even in the same ballpark. Miqu is pretty good. Sure, it's a leak...but there's nothing special there. It's just a 70b llama2 finetune.
        int_19h 3y ago
        By the standards of other llama2 finetunes, sure. Compared to GPT-4, I stand by my previous assertion.
    - 3y ago
sho 3y ago
> GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more Idk, I just tried Gemini Ultra and it's so much worse than GPT4 that I am actually quite shocked. Trying to ask it any kind of coding question ends up being this frustrating and honestly bizarre waste of time as it hallucinates a whole new language syntax every time and then asks if you want to continue with non-working, in fact non-existing, option A or the equally non-existent option B until you realise that you've spent an hour trying to make it at least output something that is even in the requested language and finally that it is completely useless. I'm actually pretty astonished at how far Google is behind and that they released such a bunch of worthless junk at all. And have the chutzpah to ask people to pay for it! Of course I'm looking forward to gpt-5 but even if it's only a minor step up, they're still way ahead.
- pb7 3y ago
  Do you have example links?
  - sho 3y ago
    here was one of them https://gemini.google.com/share/fde31202b221?hl=en https://gemini.google.com/share/fde31202b221?hl=en edit: as pointed out, this was indeed a pretty esoteric example. But the rest of my attempts were hardly better, if they had a response at all.
    - peddling-brink 3y ago
      That’s an awfully specific and esoteric question. Would you expect gpt4 to be significantly better at that level of depth? That’s not been my experience.
      - sho 3y ago
        OK, i have to admit that one was a little odd, I was beginning to give up and trying new angles. I can't really share my other sessions. But I was trying to get a handle on the language and thought it would be an easily-understood situation (multiple-token auth). I would have at least expected the response to be slightly valid. The language in question was only open sourced after GPT4's training date, so i couldn't compare. That's actually why I tried it in the first place. And yes, I do expect it to be better - GPT4 isn't perfect but I don't really it ever hallucinating quite that hard. In fact, its answer was basically that it didn't know. And when I asked it questions with other, much less esoteric code like "how would you refactor this to be more idiomatic?" I'd get either "I couldn't complete your request. Rephrase your prompt and try again." or "Sorry, I can't help with that because there's too much data. Try again with less data." GPT-4 was helpful in both cases.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
Custom GPTs like Grimoire or Cursor loaded on your repo are miles ahead of the competition for coding tasks at least.
- clbrmbr 3y ago
  How to load on your repo?
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    With Cursor, you can ask questions based on your codebase
al_borland 3y ago
I know things keep moving faster and faster, especially in this space, but GPT-4 is less than a year old. Claiming they are losing their luster, because they aren’t shaking the earth with new models every quarter, seems a little ridiculous. As the popularity has exploded, and ethical questions have become increasingly relevant, it is probably worth taking some time to nail certain aspects down before releasing everything to the public for the sake of being first.
- phreeza 3y ago
  Given how fast the valuation of the company and the scope of their ambition (e.g. raising a trillion dollars for chip manufacturing) has been hyped up, I think it's fair to say "You live by the hype, you die by the hype."
  - hef19898 3y ago
    Just time your exit correctly!
    - devoutsalsa 3y ago
      "This year I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October, and I've got a feeling they're going to peak right around January and BANG! That's when I'll cash in!" -Homer Simpson
      - hef19898 3y ago
        Homer obviously was smart, a nuclear scientist, car developer and Junior Vice President in his own tech start-up! So he should know! Edit: I forgot, NASA trained astronaut!
    - vonjuice 3y ago
      RIP vim users
  - bamboozled 3y ago
    Beautifully said.
jesterson 3y ago
Perhaps just me, but responses are way worse than it was few months ago. Now the system just makes shit up and says "Yes you are right" when you catch it on BS. It is practically unusable and I'll likely cancel paid plan soon.
- Chinjut 3y ago
  It was always like this ("Now the system just makes shit up and says 'Yes you are right' when you catch it on BS."). The scales are just falling from your eyes as the novelty fades.
  - jesterson 3y ago
    While what you say may well be true, I do have reasonably objective observations of it's deterioration with making up BS. Convinced hey do it on purpose.
mratsim 3y ago
> GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. If ChatGPT doesn't have product-market fit, what actually has?
- clbrmbr 3y ago
  GP meant Custom GPTs. Confusing names for sure.
danielscrubs 3y ago
Googlers are wishing OpenAI could vanish as it makes them look like the IBM-lookalike they are. Here are some hilarious highlights: https://twitter.com/Suhail/status/1757573182138290284 https://twitter.com/Suhail/status/1757573182138290284
- OJFord 3y ago
  I've had plenty of dumb policy violation misfires like that with ChatGPT, and got banned from Bing (which uses OpenAI API, not GPT4 at the time I think) for it the day it launched.
- lordswork 3y ago
  IMO, these examples are a result of Google's AI safety team being overly conservative and overly simplistic in their approaches. Google DeepMind is still an AI research powerhouse that is producing a ton of innovation both internal and publicly published.
remus 3y ago
> Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. I don't think it's hugely surprising given the massive hype. No doubt OpenAI are doing impressive things, but it's normal for the market to over value it initially as everyone tries to get onboard, and then for it to fall back to a more sensible level.
_giorgio_ 3y ago
Where is Ilya?! (Sutskever)
danpalmer 3y ago
I think OpenAI will do fine, but I have doubts about ChatGPT as a product. It’s just a chat UI, and I’m not convinced the UI will be chat 3 years from now. Personally, the chat UI is the main limiting factor in my own adoption, because a) it’s not in the tool I’m trying to use, and b) it’s quicker for me to do the work than describe the work I need doing.
- OJFord 3y ago
  I suppose it depends what you use it for; my time in search engine has reduced massively - and so has time 'not in the tool I'm trying to use' because it's been so much faster for me to find answers to some queries with ChatGPT than a search engine. I'm not particularly interested in having it outright program for me (other than say to sketch how to do something as inspiration, which I'll rewrite rather than copy) because I think typically I'd want to do it a certain way and it would take far longer to NLP an LLM to write it in whatever syntax than to WhateverSyntaxProgram it myself.
  - vintermann 3y ago
    Coding assistants copy your style to a fault. You got to be careful about things like typos in comments, or it'll start suggesting sloppy code as well. And conversely you have to be careful about overly bureaucratic conventions (doc comments for things entirely described by their name, etc.), or it will suggest overly wrapped hypercorporate code. But used as autocomplete, it's definitively a time saver. Most of us read faster than we type.
    - OJFord 3y ago
      I assumed that was not what we were talking about, because I replied to: > Personally, the chat UI is the main limiting factor in my own adoption, because a) it’s not in the tool I’m trying to use, [...] though I haven't tried it through some combination of it the effort to set it up & it not particularly appealing to me anyway. The best it could possibly be would be like pair programming (back seat) with someone who does things the same way as you, and reviewing their code. I read faster than I type, but probably don't review non-trivial code faster than I type it. (That's not a brag, I just mean I think it's harder and takes longer to reason about something you haven't written, to understand it, and be confident you're not missing anything or haven't (both) failed to consider xyz.)
jack_riminton 3y ago
Nonsense. Anyone who regularly uses the top models knows that GPT-4 still leads by a clear margin
- LightBug1 3y ago
  And yet, day to day, I'm using Bard/Gemini because, for most stuff, it's enough and sometimes clearer and better and the interface makes more sense. I've been anti-Google for a while now so I'm not biased. I don't think openAI have this sown up.
vineyardmike 3y ago
Interesting take, interesting reasons. I could understand the sentiment when you think that OpenAI is really doubling down just on LLMs recently, and forgoing a ton of research in other fronts. They’re rapidly iterating though, and it’s refreshing to see them try a bunch of new things so quickly while every other company is comparatively slow to release anything.
fennecfoxy 3y ago
I mean they just happened to train the biggest, most fine tuned model on the most data out of everyone I guess. Transformers were invented with the support of Google (by the researchers, not by Google). Open community has been creating better and better models with a group effort; like how ML works itself, it's way easier to try 100,000 ideas on a small scale than it is to try a couple of ideas on a large scale.
nateberkopec 3y ago
Sam publicly asking for a 10x bigger power grid and 7 trillion dollars is a pretty clear sign that they're out of short to medium-term ideas other than "MOAR PARAMETERS".
- hef19898 3y ago
  Well, he also wanted a shit ton of money so that OpenAI coupd build its own silicon, after most of the real world money generated by the AI hype went to nVidia. Just imagine what valuation OpenAI would have as a grid monopolist combined with nVidia, ARM, Intel and AMD! Hundreds of trillions of dollars!
- georgespencer 3y ago
  You think his short to medium term plan is to raise $7tn to build dozens of fabs?
sesm 3y ago
To me plugins were an improvement, I often use ‘AI diagrams’ plugin and ask it to draw sequence diagrams.
penjelly 3y ago
> GPT-5 has to be incredibly good at this point, and I'm not sure that it will be. My guess is it isnt, these systems are hard to trust, and the rhetoric "were aiming for AGI" suggests to me that they know this and AGI might be the only surefire way out. If you tried to replace all of a devs duties with current LLMs it would be a disaster, making sense of all that info requires focus and background thinking processes simulataneously which i dont believe we have yet.
- Hoasi 3y ago
  > If you tried to replace all of a devs duties with current LLMs it would be a disaster, Overall a chatbot like GPT-4 may be useful, but not that useful as it stands. If you can write well, it's not really going to improve your writing. Granted, you can automate a few tasks, but it does not give you 10X or even 2X improvement as sometimes advertised. It might be useful here and there for coding, but it's not reliable.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
To be honest, I hate takes like this. ChatGPT, which basically revolutionized the whole AI industry and the public's imagination about what AI can do, was released not even 15 months ago, and since then they have consistently released huge upgrades (GPT 4 just a couple months later) and numerous products since then. I still haven't used another model that comes close to GPT 4. But since it's been, say, all of 23 hours since OpenAI released a new product (memory) they're "losing their luster". The same nonsense happened with Apple, where like a month after they first released Apple Watch people were yelling "What's next???!!!! Apple is dying without Steve Jobs!"
CuriouslyC 3y ago
Plugins are in theory good, but the hurdle to developing and deploying them combined with only being able to use them with a subscription was kind of a killer. GPTs are also pretty good, and being able to invoke them in regular chat is also handy, but the lack of monetization and the ability to easily surface them outside of chatgpt is also kind of a problem. These problems are more fixable than the plugin issue IMO since I think the architecture of plugins is a limiting factor.
weebull 3y ago
> The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long - and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy.
greenie_beans 3y ago
gpt4 is not worth $22 a month. slow af and you get similar results with gpt3.5. the free perplexity internet search is bounds better than that bing thing. i thought the file upload would be worth it, but no, not worth that much money per month.
ChicagoBoy11 3y ago
I'll get downvoted to oblivion, but I think people underestimate the impact that their productization of the GPT in the chat format really led to a virality that likely is not entirely justified just by the underlying product alone. LLMs had been around for several years, it was just a royal pain to use. They definitely were the pioneers in democratizing it to folks, and it occupied a significant slice of mindshare of society for quite a bit. But I suspect it is only natural that it'll recede to a more appropriate level, where this is still an important and incredible piece of tech, but it will stop having the feel that "OMG THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD", because it prob. won't... at least not at the pace which popular media would have you believe.
drumttocs8 3y ago
Why haven't plugins become more of a "thing"?
CarlsJrMints 3y ago
Genuinely curious if the news today about Sora has changed your opinion at all https://openai.com/sora https://openai.com/sora

rey0927 3y ago

until you get new architectures it's all gonna be big datasets and 7 trillions

15457345234 3y ago

> Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. Good. I have no idea what's really going on inside that company but the way the staff were acting on twitter when Altman got the push was genuinely scary, major red flags, bad vibes, you name it, it reeked of it.

rendall 3y ago
What do you mean? How were they acting? I was surprised and touched by their loyalty, but maybe I missed something you noticed.
- Sharlin 3y ago
  It's not clear to me how many of the undersigned did so under some degree of duress. Apparently there was a lot of pressure from the senior employees (those who had the most $$$ to lose) to sign.
  - earthnail 3y ago
    Well, to be fair, the board just tried to evaporate a lot of $$$ from most employees. Any unionising effort consists of employees convincing other employees to join them. Some people will care more about the union's goals than others, and you can be certain that those who care more will pester those that care less to join their cause. What happened at OpenAI was not a union effort, but I believe the comparison is excellent to understand normal dynamics of employee-based efforts.
- doktrin 3y ago
  Like a cult reciting their vows of allegiance.
  - gkbrk 3y ago
    Literally reciting too. To the point of copy-pasting the same tweets.
- Jensson 3y ago
  > I was surprised and touched by their loyalty They were loyal to money, nothing to be touched by.
osigurdson 3y ago
It lost a little of its cool factor. However, they provide a nearly essential service at this point. While it is easy to underestimate, I suspect this is already have a measurable impact on global GDP.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- 15457345234 3y ago
  > I suspect this is already have a measurable impact on global GDP. Yeah putting people out of work on an industrial scale is probably gonna have a pretty big effect on global GDP
  - osigurdson 3y ago
    Is inefficiency the path to economic greatness and quality of life improvements? I suspect no.
    - 15457345234 3y ago
      Probably the answer to that question is yes. Because a large number of people born aren't as intelligent as a really good LLM but unless you're intending to leave them to starve (hi to all the e/acc peeps out there, I hate you!) you need to create a system with inefficiencies so that they don't just litter the street begging and dying.
Ringz 3y ago
It seems as though everyone at OpenAI is advised by an unfiltered ChatGPT in their daily work and communication. /s
msp26 3y ago
For me it was Ilya burning a wooden effigy that represented 'unaligned' AI. Of course the firing and twitter stuff too. Something's fucked in this company for sure.

roody15 3y ago

Running Ollama with a 80gb mistral model works as well if not better than ChatGPT 3.5. This is a good thing for the world IMO as the magic is no longer held just OpenAI. The speed at which competitors have caught up in even the last 3 months is astounding.

huytersd 3y ago
But no one cares about 3.5. It’s an order of magnitude worse than 4. An order of magnitude is a lot harder to catch up with.
- roody15 3y ago
  Yeah but for how long… at this rate I would expect some of the freely distributed models to hit gpt4 levels in as little as 3-6 months.
  - int_19h 3y ago
    I've heard claims like that 6 months ago. But so far nobody is even in the same ballpark. And not just freely distributed models, but proprietary ones backed by big money, as well. It really makes one wonder what kind of secret sauce OpenAI has. Surely it can't just be all that compute that Microsoft bought them, since Google could easily match that, and yet...
    - qeternity 3y ago
      > But so far nobody is even in the same ballpark. Miqu is pretty good. Sure, it's a leak...but there's nothing special there. It's just a 70b llama2 finetune.
      - int_19h 3y ago
        By the standards of other llama2 finetunes, sure. Compared to GPT-4, I stand by my previous assertion.
  - 3y ago

sho 3y ago

> GPT-4 is still king, but not by that much any more Idk, I just tried Gemini Ultra and it's so much worse than GPT4 that I am actually quite shocked. Trying to ask it any kind of coding question ends up being this frustrating and honestly bizarre waste of time as it hallucinates a whole new language syntax every time and then asks if you want to continue with non-working, in fact non-existing, option A or the equally non-existent option B until you realise that you've spent an hour trying to make it at least output something that is even in the requested language and finally that it is completely useless. I'm actually pretty astonished at how far Google is behind and that they released such a bunch of worthless junk at all. And have the chutzpah to ask people to pay for it! Of course I'm looking forward to gpt-5 but even if it's only a minor step up, they're still way ahead.

pb7 3y ago
Do you have example links?
- sho 3y ago
  here was one of them https://gemini.google.com/share/fde31202b221?hl=en https://gemini.google.com/share/fde31202b221?hl=en edit: as pointed out, this was indeed a pretty esoteric example. But the rest of my attempts were hardly better, if they had a response at all.
  - peddling-brink 3y ago
    That’s an awfully specific and esoteric question. Would you expect gpt4 to be significantly better at that level of depth? That’s not been my experience.
    - sho 3y ago
      OK, i have to admit that one was a little odd, I was beginning to give up and trying new angles. I can't really share my other sessions. But I was trying to get a handle on the language and thought it would be an easily-understood situation (multiple-token auth). I would have at least expected the response to be slightly valid. The language in question was only open sourced after GPT4's training date, so i couldn't compare. That's actually why I tried it in the first place. And yes, I do expect it to be better - GPT4 isn't perfect but I don't really it ever hallucinating quite that hard. In fact, its answer was basically that it didn't know. And when I asked it questions with other, much less esoteric code like "how would you refactor this to be more idiomatic?" I'd get either "I couldn't complete your request. Rephrase your prompt and try again." or "Sorry, I can't help with that because there's too much data. Try again with less data." GPT-4 was helpful in both cases.

spaceman_2020 3y ago

Custom GPTs like Grimoire or Cursor loaded on your repo are miles ahead of the competition for coding tasks at least.

clbrmbr 3y ago
How to load on your repo?
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  With Cursor, you can ask questions based on your codebase

al_borland 3y ago

I know things keep moving faster and faster, especially in this space, but GPT-4 is less than a year old. Claiming they are losing their luster, because they aren’t shaking the earth with new models every quarter, seems a little ridiculous. As the popularity has exploded, and ethical questions have become increasingly relevant, it is probably worth taking some time to nail certain aspects down before releasing everything to the public for the sake of being first.

phreeza 3y ago
Given how fast the valuation of the company and the scope of their ambition (e.g. raising a trillion dollars for chip manufacturing) has been hyped up, I think it's fair to say "You live by the hype, you die by the hype."
- hef19898 3y ago
  Just time your exit correctly!
  - devoutsalsa 3y ago
    "This year I invested in pumpkins. They've been going up the whole month of October, and I've got a feeling they're going to peak right around January and BANG! That's when I'll cash in!" -Homer Simpson
    - hef19898 3y ago
      Homer obviously was smart, a nuclear scientist, car developer and Junior Vice President in his own tech start-up! So he should know! Edit: I forgot, NASA trained astronaut!
  - vonjuice 3y ago
    RIP vim users
- bamboozled 3y ago
  Beautifully said.

jesterson 3y ago

Perhaps just me, but responses are way worse than it was few months ago. Now the system just makes shit up and says "Yes you are right" when you catch it on BS. It is practically unusable and I'll likely cancel paid plan soon.

Chinjut 3y ago
It was always like this ("Now the system just makes shit up and says 'Yes you are right' when you catch it on BS."). The scales are just falling from your eyes as the novelty fades.
- jesterson 3y ago
  While what you say may well be true, I do have reasonably objective observations of it's deterioration with making up BS. Convinced hey do it on purpose.

mratsim 3y ago

> GPTs are a little better, but I still don't see the product market fit. If ChatGPT doesn't have product-market fit, what actually has?

clbrmbr 3y ago
GP meant Custom GPTs. Confusing names for sure.

danielscrubs 3y ago

Googlers are wishing OpenAI could vanish as it makes them look like the IBM-lookalike they are. Here are some hilarious highlights: https://twitter.com/Suhail/status/1757573182138290284 https://twitter.com/Suhail/status/1757573182138290284

OJFord 3y ago
I've had plenty of dumb policy violation misfires like that with ChatGPT, and got banned from Bing (which uses OpenAI API, not GPT4 at the time I think) for it the day it launched.
lordswork 3y ago
IMO, these examples are a result of Google's AI safety team being overly conservative and overly simplistic in their approaches. Google DeepMind is still an AI research powerhouse that is producing a ton of innovation both internal and publicly published.

remus 3y ago

> Frankly, OpenAI seems to be losing its luster, and fast. I don't think it's hugely surprising given the massive hype. No doubt OpenAI are doing impressive things, but it's normal for the market to over value it initially as everyone tries to get onboard, and then for it to fall back to a more sensible level.

_giorgio_ 3y ago

Where is Ilya?! (Sutskever)

danpalmer 3y ago

I think OpenAI will do fine, but I have doubts about ChatGPT as a product. It’s just a chat UI, and I’m not convinced the UI will be chat 3 years from now. Personally, the chat UI is the main limiting factor in my own adoption, because a) it’s not in the tool I’m trying to use, and b) it’s quicker for me to do the work than describe the work I need doing.

OJFord 3y ago
I suppose it depends what you use it for; my time in search engine has reduced massively - and so has time 'not in the tool I'm trying to use' because it's been so much faster for me to find answers to some queries with ChatGPT than a search engine. I'm not particularly interested in having it outright program for me (other than say to sketch how to do something as inspiration, which I'll rewrite rather than copy) because I think typically I'd want to do it a certain way and it would take far longer to NLP an LLM to write it in whatever syntax than to WhateverSyntaxProgram it myself.
- vintermann 3y ago
  Coding assistants copy your style to a fault. You got to be careful about things like typos in comments, or it'll start suggesting sloppy code as well. And conversely you have to be careful about overly bureaucratic conventions (doc comments for things entirely described by their name, etc.), or it will suggest overly wrapped hypercorporate code. But used as autocomplete, it's definitively a time saver. Most of us read faster than we type.
  - OJFord 3y ago
    I assumed that was not what we were talking about, because I replied to: > Personally, the chat UI is the main limiting factor in my own adoption, because a) it’s not in the tool I’m trying to use, [...] though I haven't tried it through some combination of it the effort to set it up & it not particularly appealing to me anyway. The best it could possibly be would be like pair programming (back seat) with someone who does things the same way as you, and reviewing their code. I read faster than I type, but probably don't review non-trivial code faster than I type it. (That's not a brag, I just mean I think it's harder and takes longer to reason about something you haven't written, to understand it, and be confident you're not missing anything or haven't (both) failed to consider xyz.)

jack_riminton 3y ago

Nonsense. Anyone who regularly uses the top models knows that GPT-4 still leads by a clear margin

LightBug1 3y ago
And yet, day to day, I'm using Bard/Gemini because, for most stuff, it's enough and sometimes clearer and better and the interface makes more sense. I've been anti-Google for a while now so I'm not biased. I don't think openAI have this sown up.

vineyardmike 3y ago

Interesting take, interesting reasons. I could understand the sentiment when you think that OpenAI is really doubling down just on LLMs recently, and forgoing a ton of research in other fronts. They’re rapidly iterating though, and it’s refreshing to see them try a bunch of new things so quickly while every other company is comparatively slow to release anything.

fennecfoxy 3y ago

I mean they just happened to train the biggest, most fine tuned model on the most data out of everyone I guess. Transformers were invented with the support of Google (by the researchers, not by Google). Open community has been creating better and better models with a group effort; like how ML works itself, it's way easier to try 100,000 ideas on a small scale than it is to try a couple of ideas on a large scale.

nateberkopec 3y ago

Sam publicly asking for a 10x bigger power grid and 7 trillion dollars is a pretty clear sign that they're out of short to medium-term ideas other than "MOAR PARAMETERS".

hef19898 3y ago
Well, he also wanted a shit ton of money so that OpenAI coupd build its own silicon, after most of the real world money generated by the AI hype went to nVidia. Just imagine what valuation OpenAI would have as a grid monopolist combined with nVidia, ARM, Intel and AMD! Hundreds of trillions of dollars!
georgespencer 3y ago
You think his short to medium term plan is to raise $7tn to build dozens of fabs?

sesm 3y ago

To me plugins were an improvement, I often use ‘AI diagrams’ plugin and ask it to draw sequence diagrams.

penjelly 3y ago

> GPT-5 has to be incredibly good at this point, and I'm not sure that it will be. My guess is it isnt, these systems are hard to trust, and the rhetoric "were aiming for AGI" suggests to me that they know this and AGI might be the only surefire way out. If you tried to replace all of a devs duties with current LLMs it would be a disaster, making sense of all that info requires focus and background thinking processes simulataneously which i dont believe we have yet.

Hoasi 3y ago
> If you tried to replace all of a devs duties with current LLMs it would be a disaster, Overall a chatbot like GPT-4 may be useful, but not that useful as it stands. If you can write well, it's not really going to improve your writing. Granted, you can automate a few tasks, but it does not give you 10X or even 2X improvement as sometimes advertised. It might be useful here and there for coding, but it's not reliable.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

To be honest, I hate takes like this. ChatGPT, which basically revolutionized the whole AI industry and the public's imagination about what AI can do, was released not even 15 months ago, and since then they have consistently released huge upgrades (GPT 4 just a couple months later) and numerous products since then. I still haven't used another model that comes close to GPT 4. But since it's been, say, all of 23 hours since OpenAI released a new product (memory) they're "losing their luster". The same nonsense happened with Apple, where like a month after they first released Apple Watch people were yelling "What's next???!!!! Apple is dying without Steve Jobs!"

CuriouslyC 3y ago

Plugins are in theory good, but the hurdle to developing and deploying them combined with only being able to use them with a subscription was kind of a killer. GPTs are also pretty good, and being able to invoke them in regular chat is also handy, but the lack of monetization and the ability to easily surface them outside of chatgpt is also kind of a problem. These problems are more fixable than the plugin issue IMO since I think the architecture of plugins is a limiting factor.

weebull 3y ago

> The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long - and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy.

greenie_beans 3y ago

gpt4 is not worth $22 a month. slow af and you get similar results with gpt3.5. the free perplexity internet search is bounds better than that bing thing. i thought the file upload would be worth it, but no, not worth that much money per month.

ChicagoBoy11 3y ago

I'll get downvoted to oblivion, but I think people underestimate the impact that their productization of the GPT in the chat format really led to a virality that likely is not entirely justified just by the underlying product alone. LLMs had been around for several years, it was just a royal pain to use. They definitely were the pioneers in democratizing it to folks, and it occupied a significant slice of mindshare of society for quite a bit. But I suspect it is only natural that it'll recede to a more appropriate level, where this is still an important and incredible piece of tech, but it will stop having the feel that "OMG THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD", because it prob. won't... at least not at the pace which popular media would have you believe.

drumttocs8 3y ago

Why haven't plugins become more of a "thing"?

CarlsJrMints 3y ago

Genuinely curious if the news today about Sora has changed your opinion at all https://openai.com/sora https://openai.com/sora