5 ms·

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the viru

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/faadg4/a_23_year_old_iranian_woman_soccer_player_has/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/faadg4/a_23_ye... A male nurse talking of 8 deaths in one night during his shift. 23-year-old female (same case?), 29- and 30-year-old males, 50-year-old female among them. (1-minute clip) EDIT: It's just n=8, but 37.5% dying at age 30 or below is most likely drawn from a different distribution from 0.6% among the 70,000+ cases in the largest Chinese study (where the worldometers data comes from). EDIT 2: Based on a link in a sibling comment, only 7 deaths among 20-29 yo and 18 deaths among 30-39 yo in the n=44,672 Chinese report. https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1232779487647031302 https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1232779487647031302 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51#Table1 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...

adventured 7y ago
Dr. Li Wenliang, who warned of Covid early on, was also only 34 years old.
- sciinfo 7y ago
  Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.
  - railsgirls112 7y ago
    Good thing no younger adults in the western world are overworked and under rested ;)
  - riyadparvez 7y ago
    > higher viral load What is "higher viral load"? Isn't it binary - you are either infected or not?
    - swader999 7y ago
      Agree but they may also be constantly reinfected.
    - empath75 7y ago
      If you’re infected by a couple of individual viruses, it’ll take a while before it starts spreading throughout your body, which will have more time to prove an immune response. Compared to essentially bathing yourself in it for days at a time.
    - davemp 7y ago
      afaik viral infections increase at an exponential rate. If the initial load is higher, the peak infection before your immune system can get things under control will be much higher/dangerous. Ex: 3^10 v.s. 30^10
    - mr_overalls 7y ago
      Exposure to a virus doesn't ensure infection - there is some probability involved, depending at least partially on the number of virus particles that you are exposed to, over what period of time. Viral load is literally a numerical expression of the quantity of virus in a given volume. It is often expressed as viral particles, or infectious particles per mL depending on the type of assay. And a higher viral load often correlates with the severity of an active viral infection.
    - swebs 7y ago
      No, your symptoms are affected by the number of viruses in your system. The virus is constantly replicating and your immune system is constantly destroying them. If the rate of increase is greater than the rate of decrease, you will not recover.
JulianMorrison 7y ago
Same goes for their high death rate. Either they're lying about infections (which seems to be the current shared assumption of everyone else) or their version of the virus grew some really nasty teeth.
zerkten 7y ago
> There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. They could easily have had an undiagnosed underlying condition that made them more susceptible to complications. This is to be expected in places like Iran with severe limitations in their healthcare system. It might be a more useful data point if it was from the US, UK, Spain, etc.
- Mergocil 7y ago
  Yes, or a specific HLA type that is more prevalent in the population.
- jmiskovic 7y ago
  Is it just me or is your comment really insensitive? I would think that about half of world has no better healthcare system than Iran.
  - 99052882514569 7y ago
    It's you. That half the world has no better healthcare system than Iran is a sad reflection on the state of healthcare in world, not an implication that Iran's dilapidated and overstretched healthcare system\* is a good one. Combine that with their authoritarian government with zero communications skills and no credibility due to being habitual liars, and we should place no stock in their reassurances/projections, and very little stock even in their hard-to-fuck-up stats like # of deaths. \* I should say this is anecdata, based on comments by several Iranian friends and acquaintances.
    - jmiskovic 7y ago
      I'm not defending Iran's healthcare system. The info I was able to dig up places it as above average, which means that more than 50% of world population will be affected just as bad or worse. Dismissing Iran's data point as not useful takes a specific viewpoint that I consider not empathic enough for my tastes, but everyone is free to disagree.
drclau 7y ago
There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world: “The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). [...] In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source, Wikipedia, see [0]. I wonder if it’s genetics (immune system reacts differently?), or cultural (habits - kissing on cheeks, handshaking, large religious or non-religious gatherings) or climate, or a mix. References: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu Edit: admittedly, it’s too early to draw conclusions. It’ll take a few weeks to have more realistic numbers.
- mzs 7y ago
  For the first time since the revolution Friday prayers have been cancelled in Tehran. They are still on in Qom. https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1233017138119659520 https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1233017138119659520
- AJRF 7y ago
  It's hard to find up to date records filtered by country, but they might have higher count of the ACE2 enzyme which is thought to be an entry point for coronaviruses. Asian populations have much higher count than other populations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_...
  - swader999 7y ago
    Once the beds are all occupied it doesn't matter how many a country has.
  - Footkerchief 7y ago
    Source for Asians having more? This disagrees: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0258/v1/download&ved=2ahUKEwiy5LyH__HnAhVPknIEHY0ZD0MQFjAJegQIRhAB&usg=AOvVaw1CuJLaA9eGu0A-EBvZsalR https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/...
bart_spoon 7y ago
Iran said it had no cases up until the moment it announced 4 people had died. Its safe to assume that the scope of the infection in Iran is either far greater than they have been able to track, or far greater than they are willing to admit. I think its less likely that the virus is killing more young people in Iran, and more likely that there are thousands if not tens of thousands of cases in Iran that simply haven't been counted/reported.
- lostlogin 7y ago
  We saw the Iranian response to the airliner being shot down recently. It’ll be just as you say.
empath75 7y ago
Citing individual deaths is sort of meaningless without an idea of how many people are sick. I suspect it’s in the many thousands in Iran already.
SomaticPirate 7y ago
Preprint paper of Iran infection estimates the number of infected around 18k. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v...)
satya71 7y ago
Could be many reasons: 1. Iran has more young people. 2. Iran does not have any monitoring program of significance 3. Young people in Iran are probably more mobile and more likely to contract it.
- sndean 7y ago
  > 1. Iran has more young people. Just wondering if that's true. It does look like that's the case: https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$geo$/$in@=irn&=usa;;;;;&chart-type=popbyage https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$geo$/$...
gamblor956 7y ago
Iran is an outlier because it has an extremely poor healthcare system for a country of its size or GDP.

adventured 7y ago

Dr. Li Wenliang, who warned of Covid early on, was also only 34 years old.

sciinfo 7y ago
Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.
- railsgirls112 7y ago
  Good thing no younger adults in the western world are overworked and under rested ;)
- riyadparvez 7y ago
  > higher viral load What is "higher viral load"? Isn't it binary - you are either infected or not?
  - swader999 7y ago
    Agree but they may also be constantly reinfected.
  - empath75 7y ago
    If you’re infected by a couple of individual viruses, it’ll take a while before it starts spreading throughout your body, which will have more time to prove an immune response. Compared to essentially bathing yourself in it for days at a time.
  - davemp 7y ago
    afaik viral infections increase at an exponential rate. If the initial load is higher, the peak infection before your immune system can get things under control will be much higher/dangerous. Ex: 3^10 v.s. 30^10
  - mr_overalls 7y ago
    Exposure to a virus doesn't ensure infection - there is some probability involved, depending at least partially on the number of virus particles that you are exposed to, over what period of time. Viral load is literally a numerical expression of the quantity of virus in a given volume. It is often expressed as viral particles, or infectious particles per mL depending on the type of assay. And a higher viral load often correlates with the severity of an active viral infection.
  - swebs 7y ago
    No, your symptoms are affected by the number of viruses in your system. The virus is constantly replicating and your immune system is constantly destroying them. If the rate of increase is greater than the rate of decrease, you will not recover.

JulianMorrison 7y ago

Same goes for their high death rate. Either they're lying about infections (which seems to be the current shared assumption of everyone else) or their version of the virus grew some really nasty teeth.

zerkten 7y ago

> There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. They could easily have had an undiagnosed underlying condition that made them more susceptible to complications. This is to be expected in places like Iran with severe limitations in their healthcare system. It might be a more useful data point if it was from the US, UK, Spain, etc.

Mergocil 7y ago
Yes, or a specific HLA type that is more prevalent in the population.
jmiskovic 7y ago
Is it just me or is your comment really insensitive? I would think that about half of world has no better healthcare system than Iran.
- 99052882514569 7y ago
  It's you. That half the world has no better healthcare system than Iran is a sad reflection on the state of healthcare in world, not an implication that Iran's dilapidated and overstretched healthcare system\* is a good one. Combine that with their authoritarian government with zero communications skills and no credibility due to being habitual liars, and we should place no stock in their reassurances/projections, and very little stock even in their hard-to-fuck-up stats like # of deaths. \* I should say this is anecdata, based on comments by several Iranian friends and acquaintances.
  - jmiskovic 7y ago
    I'm not defending Iran's healthcare system. The info I was able to dig up places it as above average, which means that more than 50% of world population will be affected just as bad or worse. Dismissing Iran's data point as not useful takes a specific viewpoint that I consider not empathic enough for my tastes, but everyone is free to disagree.

drclau 7y ago

There’s something off about Iran. According to Wikipedia [0], Spanish Flu killed a much higher percentage in Iran too, in comparison with the rest of the world: “The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio). [...] In Iran, the mortality was very high: according to an estimate, between 902,400 and 2,431,000, or 8% to 22% of the total population died.” — source, Wikipedia, see [0]. I wonder if it’s genetics (immune system reacts differently?), or cultural (habits - kissing on cheeks, handshaking, large religious or non-religious gatherings) or climate, or a mix. References: [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu Edit: admittedly, it’s too early to draw conclusions. It’ll take a few weeks to have more realistic numbers.

mzs 7y ago
For the first time since the revolution Friday prayers have been cancelled in Tehran. They are still on in Qom. https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1233017138119659520 https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1233017138119659520
AJRF 7y ago
It's hard to find up to date records filtered by country, but they might have higher count of the ACE2 enzyme which is thought to be an entry point for coronaviruses. Asian populations have much higher count than other populations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_...
- swader999 7y ago
  Once the beds are all occupied it doesn't matter how many a country has.
- Footkerchief 7y ago
  Source for Asians having more? This disagrees: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0258/v1/download&ved=2ahUKEwiy5LyH__HnAhVPknIEHY0ZD0MQFjAJegQIRhAB&usg=AOvVaw1CuJLaA9eGu0A-EBvZsalR https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/...

bart_spoon 7y ago

Iran said it had no cases up until the moment it announced 4 people had died. Its safe to assume that the scope of the infection in Iran is either far greater than they have been able to track, or far greater than they are willing to admit. I think its less likely that the virus is killing more young people in Iran, and more likely that there are thousands if not tens of thousands of cases in Iran that simply haven't been counted/reported.

lostlogin 7y ago
We saw the Iranian response to the airliner being shot down recently. It’ll be just as you say.

empath75 7y ago

Citing individual deaths is sort of meaningless without an idea of how many people are sick. I suspect it’s in the many thousands in Iran already.

SomaticPirate 7y ago

Preprint paper of Iran infection estimates the number of infected around 18k. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027375v...)

satya71 7y ago

Could be many reasons: 1. Iran has more young people. 2. Iran does not have any monitoring program of significance 3. Young people in Iran are probably more mobile and more likely to contract it.

sndean 7y ago
> 1. Iran has more young people. Just wondering if that's true. It does look like that's the case: https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$geo$/$in@=irn&=usa;;;;;&chart-type=popbyage https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$geo$/$...

gamblor956 7y ago

Iran is an outlier because it has an extremely poor healthcare system for a country of its size or GDP.