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Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those w

Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College: => Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who with mild cases and don't go to see doctors) => Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% => Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity. No country has sufficient ventilators, ECMO machines, and medical staff if infections become widespread since about 20% of infections requires hospitalization. People who need medical care from other causes would suffer from resource shortages as well. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei! Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard, believes that it might infect 40-70% of population (excl. kids) without effective control measures. His articles here: https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1232504457377861632 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1232504457377861632 -- Reference: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana... From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China." For concise interviews with experts and other info: Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak

sciinfo 7y ago
For people thinking it is just like SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/ https://ncov.r6.no/
- bamboozled 7y ago
  According to one of those graphs it has a 50% fatality rate? Seems a little surprising.
  - tree3 7y ago
    No, the graphs that have both solid and dashed lines have two separate vertical axis on the left and right.
    - bamboozled 7y ago
      Sorry, that was unclear to me. You're right.
oefrha 7y ago
Report 4 was published on Feb 10 (the report itself doesn't include any date info, which IMO is a huge mistake, but you bet the data is even older -- the last death recorded in the attached CSV file was from Jan 23), with a couple of stats derived from only two deaths. I would take this report with a bowl of salt, or even mark it as obsolete.
- sciinfo 7y ago
  I have followed the news closely, the CFR might decrease a bit in Hubei because China has reinforced it with 20,000 medical staff and hospitals. They also have found some better treatments (not a cure, to be clear). The approx. 20% hospitalization figure is the elephant in the room. Even if reduced to 10% or 5%, it would still overwhelm medical resources of any country. The point is if a country gets complacent, it could be too late to contain it without drastic measures and mass sufferings.
  - oefrha 7y ago
    > The approx. 20% hospitalization figure is the elephant in the room, even if reduced to 10% or 5%, would still overwhelm medical resources of any country though. That's for sure. Hopefully fewer people will be touting the "it's just a slightly worse flu" or "common flu kills more" nonsense by now.
aiyodev 7y ago
I believe the fatality rate in Iran is ~16% which is consistent with what you’re saying here. Edit: Downvotes? Really?
- mullingitover 7y ago
  I think this probably means that Iran isn't identifying all the cases, not that they actually have a 16% fatality rate.

sciinfo 7y ago

For people thinking it is just like SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/ https://ncov.r6.no/

bamboozled 7y ago
According to one of those graphs it has a 50% fatality rate? Seems a little surprising.
- tree3 7y ago
  No, the graphs that have both solid and dashed lines have two separate vertical axis on the left and right.
  - bamboozled 7y ago
    Sorry, that was unclear to me. You're right.

oefrha 7y ago

Report 4 was published on Feb 10 (the report itself doesn't include any date info, which IMO is a huge mistake, but you bet the data is even older -- the last death recorded in the attached CSV file was from Jan 23), with a couple of stats derived from only two deaths. I would take this report with a bowl of salt, or even mark it as obsolete.

sciinfo 7y ago
I have followed the news closely, the CFR might decrease a bit in Hubei because China has reinforced it with 20,000 medical staff and hospitals. They also have found some better treatments (not a cure, to be clear). The approx. 20% hospitalization figure is the elephant in the room. Even if reduced to 10% or 5%, it would still overwhelm medical resources of any country. The point is if a country gets complacent, it could be too late to contain it without drastic measures and mass sufferings.
- oefrha 7y ago
  > The approx. 20% hospitalization figure is the elephant in the room, even if reduced to 10% or 5%, would still overwhelm medical resources of any country though. That's for sure. Hopefully fewer people will be touting the "it's just a slightly worse flu" or "common flu kills more" nonsense by now.

aiyodev 7y ago

I believe the fatality rate in Iran is ~16% which is consistent with what you’re saying here. Edit: Downvotes? Really?

mullingitover 7y ago
I think this probably means that Iran isn't identifying all the cases, not that they actually have a 16% fatality rate.