not_a_moth

11 ms·

91.
by not_a_moth 6y ago
? You're comparing a prison to a nursing home Another data point, ~12k healthy foreign workers in Singapore have tested positive. The city-state has only 12 deaths total (all elderly, not the foreign workers). In Singapore the foreign
92.
by not_a_moth 6y ago
Yes, rather absurdly, I learned about him like a month ago on ZeroHedge when they started following him; he was brushed off for weeks, his message being, "Look at patient behavior, this is not actually ARDS, our ventilator strategy is
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
I like how you're pulling the fear card instead of contributing to a real discussion
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
No, if elderly/vulnerable continue precaution, more like range(.001 - .0001) x .6 x 330 million = 20k - 200k deaths Add in supposed summer slow down and before we get a vaccine the numbers could be 10x less There are 12k cases in Singa
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
> The arithmetic on that is ~1 million early deaths in the US. Sorry that's baseless histeria. We can easily think through how healthy people go back to normal (exponentially lower fatality rate than elderly/sick), while vulner
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
A fourth way: We throw as many resources as we can at sampling undiagnosed populations, like the recent NYC study that suggests 20% of the city (10% of the state) has antibodies already. We could get real confidence that it's safe enou
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
What are the more realistic alternatives?
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
Except your hypothetical "never leave house" population is probably <5% of the population - every single person I know is still going out to public places at some time during the week.
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by not_a_moth 6y ago
> I grew up in a high pressure environment, where a lot is expected from you. Same, and university and career too... I wrestle with the same problems. Basically, I think it's reasonable to give up if you don't enjoy working on
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
> There's no objective measure of severity While it varies with health care rationing, think CFR is still a useful measure of disease severity and allows us to situate COVID vs. the flu. Knowing the real CFR depends right now on how
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Yes, it seems it could either be "measures are more effective than thought" or "disease is not as severe as thought", or both. Fwiw Michael Burry, someone who has earned the right to be listened to in the face of collect
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Been following the guy from the Big Short, Michael Burry, who has been going deep in the data and models, and trying to raise awareness. He tweeted today how Fauci and the mainstream media glossed over how the models already took into accou
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
The model that was down revised already took into account the interventions
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Because Fauci said earlier today expected US fatalities has been down revised to 60k Meaning it's not as bad as we all thought in previous weeks when millions were predicted to die
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
No, I'm talking about the literal months before the first case was even announced in SK.
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Yeah I'm in an Asian country and a lot of people I know think they had it two months ago. For anyone watching government reactions from January, it's clear that testing was not thorough in any meaningful way in Asian nations for a
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
People are recovering because their immune system learns and remembers how to fight it. I'd at least assume our immune system would behave as its programmed to with this virus, before jumping to opposite conclusion Also, if immunity is
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
If won't overwhelm if the elderly or high risk are isolated and protocols are strict with that segment
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
I don't follow, herd immunity greatly reduces the virus because when a critical mass gains immunity it can't easily reproduce At that point it will be much safer for the vulnerable There isn't mass death because the elderly w
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Want to play devil's advocate Closing all schools, closing gyms, closing restaurants It's obvious we can't contain the virus A ton of otherwise healthy adults and children, not at risk from virus, are going to damage their he
111.
by not_a_moth 7y ago
Or look at S Korea, 7313 cases 50 deaths, .68% CFR. Would like to see the age group breakdown. If I had to guess why CFR is so much lower in S Korea, it's because they tend to test more widely, ie. don't only test when patients sh
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
> could possibly influence our culture in a negative way Pretty sure you're supposed to ignore "culture" until your company has established itself
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Two possibilities, a) a faster spreading version of flu, which produces a greater overall quantity of severe cases, could be mistaken for a more virulent flu... which is what I believe most reports are doing now b) the unprecedented lock do
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Agreed but even if you think the real Wuhan death count is 10x the official (ie. ~10K deaths in Wuhan), there's still an order of magnitude lower mortality rate assuming there's been widespread exposure in the 3 months
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Watching this closely based in Singapore, the true mortality rate is probably an order of magnitude lower a) The stats coming from Hubei are adverse selected; they are from patients who already had severe enough illness to go to the hospita
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Should add their discussion of cytokine storms in healthy people, which appears to have a more rapid timeline > Some experts argue that the virus triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults > Ba
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Limited data, but there are now several confirmed cases in different countries traced to a small business conference in Singapore[1]. I think there's no question the barcelona conference would have spread the virus, where there's
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
Singapore has reported several cases of local transmission, no ties to China. https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
For jobs there's a competitive selection process, so referrals from people who passed the competitive screening are likely to be in a top percentile. With friend networks, most people don't have a competitive selection process - y
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by not_a_moth 7y ago
I used One Medical for a year and quit, because their medical practitioners are low quality in my opinion. Probably why they are cheap. I would book appointments and I would only ever see nurses, and then when needed I would be referred to

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