5 ms·

Or look at S Korea, 7313 cases 50 deaths, .68% CFR. Would like to see the age group breakdown. If I had to guess why CFR is so much lower in S Korea, it's beca

Or look at S Korea, 7313 cases 50 deaths, .68% CFR. Would like to see the age group breakdown. If I had to guess why CFR is so much lower in S Korea, it's because they tend to test more widely, ie. don't only test when patients show up at the hospital with severe symptoms. Or in other words they are closer to the real CFR.

codeulike 7y ago
Yes South Korea are testing huge numbers. Worth watching closely.
lifthrasiir 7y ago
> Or look at S Korea, 7313 cases 50 deaths, .68% CFR. Would like to see the age group breakdown. As of 2020-03-08 0:00 AM UTC+9 [1]: Patients Deaths Age (% of total) (% in group) 80+ 212 (3.0%) 14 (6.6%) 70--79 409 (5.7%) 18 (4.4%) 60--69 878 (12.3%) 11 (1.3%) 50--59 1349 (18.9%) 5 (0.4%) 40--49 975 (13.7%) 1 (0.1%) 30--39 760 (10.7%) 1 (0.1%) 20--29 2133 (29.9%) 0 (0.0%) 10--19 360 (5.0%) 0 (0.0%) 0--9 58 (0.8%) 0 (0.0%) Total 7134 50 (0.7%) [1] https://is.cdc.go.kr/upload_comm/syview/doc.html?fn=158364414115900.pdf&rs=/upload_comm/docu/0015/ https://is.cdc.go.kr/upload_comm/syview/doc.html?fn=15836441... (p. 10)
- lern_too_spel 7y ago
  Most of Korea's cases were discovered since late February and have not had a chance to either recover or die (i.e., the numerator is right-censored). Expect the CFR to rise there.
  - lifthrasiir 7y ago
    You are right. If you want some other statistics, as of 2020-03-07 there were 59 patients [1] that are under respiratory support or oxygen therapy and thus considered "severe". [1] https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017 https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - Fjolsvith 7y ago
    Or not. What about all the infected people who haven't had symptoms serious enough to warrant seeing a doctor and getting tested positive for Coronavirus?
    - lern_too_spel 7y ago
      That is a constant factor on the denominator, which is lower in Korea than elsewhere due to the availability of 10-minute drive-through tests. The factor on the numerator will be much higher at the start of an epidemic and go down to 1 when it completes. The estimated average time to die for those who die from COVID-19 is 28 days. 28 days ago, Korea had fewer than 50 cases total.
      - alexilliamson 7y ago
        How is the number of mild, untested cases a constant factor? If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change.
        lern_too_spel 7y ago
        > If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change. If everyone were tested, the denominator goes up by some constant factor. In Korea, people are already being tested at the first sign of cold symptoms.
      - Fjolsvith 7y ago
        The vaccines will change all these numbers.
- zaroth 7y ago
  Great data, thanks for taking the time to format it cleanly.
cycrutchfield 7y ago
Misleading. You can’t look at CFR with the denominator being total number of cases, at least in the exponential growth phase. It will massively understate the actual CFR.
- svara 7y ago
  But you can compare this ratio between countries that have similar numbers of cases to get a hint at relative detection efficacy, assuming constant CFR.
Scipio_Afri 7y ago
South Korea proactively tested people so their numbers are more skewed towards being the infection fatality rate (case fatality rate are those tested and cobfredtobe sick, ie sick enough to go to the doctor, get tested and be a confirmed case). Where as IFR is the estimate of everyone infected) Also the demographics of those tested are skewed to the 20–40s age range as the member of a reclusive church was sick and didn’t say anything. They the proactively tested everyone they were in contact with at the church and the demographics of that church skew younger.
- TuringNYC 7y ago
  Does their test measure antibodies (meaning you were at some point exposed) or does it measure an active infection, or does it measure an active symptomatic infection?
  - konschubert 7y ago
    I believe these are PCR tests, so they test for presence of the virus. Afaik antibody tests do not yet exist but are in development

codeulike 7y ago

Yes South Korea are testing huge numbers. Worth watching closely.

lifthrasiir 7y ago

> Or look at S Korea, 7313 cases 50 deaths, .68% CFR. Would like to see the age group breakdown. As of 2020-03-08 0:00 AM UTC+9 [1]: Patients Deaths Age (% of total) (% in group) 80+ 212 (3.0%) 14 (6.6%) 70--79 409 (5.7%) 18 (4.4%) 60--69 878 (12.3%) 11 (1.3%) 50--59 1349 (18.9%) 5 (0.4%) 40--49 975 (13.7%) 1 (0.1%) 30--39 760 (10.7%) 1 (0.1%) 20--29 2133 (29.9%) 0 (0.0%) 10--19 360 (5.0%) 0 (0.0%) 0--9 58 (0.8%) 0 (0.0%) Total 7134 50 (0.7%) [1] https://is.cdc.go.kr/upload_comm/syview/doc.html?fn=158364414115900.pdf&rs=/upload_comm/docu/0015/ https://is.cdc.go.kr/upload_comm/syview/doc.html?fn=15836441... (p. 10)

lern_too_spel 7y ago
Most of Korea's cases were discovered since late February and have not had a chance to either recover or die (i.e., the numerator is right-censored). Expect the CFR to rise there.
- lifthrasiir 7y ago
  You are right. If you want some other statistics, as of 2020-03-07 there were 59 patients [1] that are under respiratory support or oxygen therapy and thus considered "severe". [1] https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017 https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- Fjolsvith 7y ago
  Or not. What about all the infected people who haven't had symptoms serious enough to warrant seeing a doctor and getting tested positive for Coronavirus?
  - lern_too_spel 7y ago
    That is a constant factor on the denominator, which is lower in Korea than elsewhere due to the availability of 10-minute drive-through tests. The factor on the numerator will be much higher at the start of an epidemic and go down to 1 when it completes. The estimated average time to die for those who die from COVID-19 is 28 days. 28 days ago, Korea had fewer than 50 cases total.
    - alexilliamson 7y ago
      How is the number of mild, untested cases a constant factor? If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change.
      - lern_too_spel 7y ago
        > If less serious patients start to get tested more frequently, this number will change. If everyone were tested, the denominator goes up by some constant factor. In Korea, people are already being tested at the first sign of cold symptoms.
    - Fjolsvith 7y ago
      The vaccines will change all these numbers.
zaroth 7y ago
Great data, thanks for taking the time to format it cleanly.

cycrutchfield 7y ago

Misleading. You can’t look at CFR with the denominator being total number of cases, at least in the exponential growth phase. It will massively understate the actual CFR.

svara 7y ago
But you can compare this ratio between countries that have similar numbers of cases to get a hint at relative detection efficacy, assuming constant CFR.

Scipio_Afri 7y ago

South Korea proactively tested people so their numbers are more skewed towards being the infection fatality rate (case fatality rate are those tested and cobfredtobe sick, ie sick enough to go to the doctor, get tested and be a confirmed case). Where as IFR is the estimate of everyone infected) Also the demographics of those tested are skewed to the 20–40s age range as the member of a reclusive church was sick and didn’t say anything. They the proactively tested everyone they were in contact with at the church and the demographics of that church skew younger.

TuringNYC 7y ago
Does their test measure antibodies (meaning you were at some point exposed) or does it measure an active infection, or does it measure an active symptomatic infection?
- konschubert 7y ago
  I believe these are PCR tests, so they test for presence of the virus. Afaik antibody tests do not yet exist but are in development