4 ms·

A fourth way: We throw as many resources as we can at sampling undiagnosed populations, like the recent NYC study that suggests 20% of the city (10% of the stat

A fourth way: We throw as many resources as we can at sampling undiagnosed populations, like the recent NYC study that suggests 20% of the city (10% of the state) has antibodies already. We could get real confidence that it's safe enough to return to normal, acceping that COVID is a new disease that's just going to be around, the 5th coronavirus that we deal with seasonally.

maxerickson 6y ago
The arithmetic on that is ~1 million early deaths in the US. The screening in the article would cost billions of dollars. If it worked, we could then reuse the infrastructure to kill the flu. And then start on the colds.
- not_a_moth 6y ago
  > The arithmetic on that is ~1 million early deaths in the US. Sorry that's baseless histeria. We can easily think through how healthy people go back to normal (exponentially lower fatality rate than elderly/sick), while vulnerable take more precaution, how then getting to 60% of population gives us herd immunity which grinds R0 to a halt. Then a vaccine arrives in 18 months. Not to mention heat/humidity/summer is being shown to slow the disease from recent studies.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    New York (state) deaths per infection assuming ~10% overall spread: 10000/(0.1 * (20 million)) = 0.005 Arithmetic to scale that to ~60% of the US: 0.005 * 0.6 * 330 million = 990000 Of course that is hugely sensitive to the assumptions about the overall infection rate in New York and the immunity factor, but like I said, the arithmetic on what you said leads to ~1 million early deaths.
    - not_a_moth 6y ago
      No, if elderly/vulnerable continue precaution, more like range(.001 - .0001) x .6 x 330 million = 20k - 200k deaths Add in supposed summer slow down and before we get a vaccine the numbers could be 10x less There are 12k cases in Singapore and 12 deaths because they almost exclusively tested foreign worker dormitories, healthy working people (and the 12 are all elderly).
  - selimthegrim 6y ago
    I like how you're ignoring the organ damage in even younger survivors like it's rosacea or something.
    - timr 6y ago
      Cite something -- anything -- legitimate that points long-term organ damage in young, otherwise healthy people. Newspaper anecdotes don't count. All evidence so far is that a small fraction of people sick enough to be in the ICU end up with some sort of non-lung organ involvement. The vast majority (>99.98%) of young (<50 years), healthy people don't end up in the hospital at all, let alone the ICU. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html#hospitalizations https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi...
      - selimthegrim 6y ago
        https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-cor... (TL, DR: NEJM next week)
        timr 6y ago
        Right. So a day after you make your comment implying lots of young people are experiencing long-term organ damage, the WaPo discusses an as-yet-unpublished paper discussing a small number of stroke victims who may or may not have been influenced by this virus. If this is the best you can do, you're grasping at straws.
    - not_a_moth 6y ago
      I like how you're pulling the fear card instead of contributing to a real discussion

maxerickson 6y ago

The arithmetic on that is ~1 million early deaths in the US. The screening in the article would cost billions of dollars. If it worked, we could then reuse the infrastructure to kill the flu. And then start on the colds.

not_a_moth 6y ago
> The arithmetic on that is ~1 million early deaths in the US. Sorry that's baseless histeria. We can easily think through how healthy people go back to normal (exponentially lower fatality rate than elderly/sick), while vulnerable take more precaution, how then getting to 60% of population gives us herd immunity which grinds R0 to a halt. Then a vaccine arrives in 18 months. Not to mention heat/humidity/summer is being shown to slow the disease from recent studies.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  New York (state) deaths per infection assuming ~10% overall spread: 10000/(0.1 * (20 million)) = 0.005 Arithmetic to scale that to ~60% of the US: 0.005 * 0.6 * 330 million = 990000 Of course that is hugely sensitive to the assumptions about the overall infection rate in New York and the immunity factor, but like I said, the arithmetic on what you said leads to ~1 million early deaths.
  - not_a_moth 6y ago
    No, if elderly/vulnerable continue precaution, more like range(.001 - .0001) x .6 x 330 million = 20k - 200k deaths Add in supposed summer slow down and before we get a vaccine the numbers could be 10x less There are 12k cases in Singapore and 12 deaths because they almost exclusively tested foreign worker dormitories, healthy working people (and the 12 are all elderly).
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  I like how you're ignoring the organ damage in even younger survivors like it's rosacea or something.
  - timr 6y ago
    Cite something -- anything -- legitimate that points long-term organ damage in young, otherwise healthy people. Newspaper anecdotes don't count. All evidence so far is that a small fraction of people sick enough to be in the ICU end up with some sort of non-lung organ involvement. The vast majority (>99.98%) of young (<50 years), healthy people don't end up in the hospital at all, let alone the ICU. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html#hospitalizations https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidvi...
    - selimthegrim 6y ago
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-cor... (TL, DR: NEJM next week)
      - timr 6y ago
        Right. So a day after you make your comment implying lots of young people are experiencing long-term organ damage, the WaPo discusses an as-yet-unpublished paper discussing a small number of stroke victims who may or may not have been influenced by this virus. If this is the best you can do, you're grasping at straws.
  - not_a_moth 6y ago
    I like how you're pulling the fear card instead of contributing to a real discussion