ngriffiths

9 ms·

91.
by ngriffiths 1y ago
In practice I think people often don't see the full structure of their own belief graph. Parts of it are clear but for 99% of important issues, it's more fuzzy than portrayed in the figures here. I still think this is an illuminat
92.
by ngriffiths 1y ago
Interesting, makes me curious about geometric ways of looking at semirings. Krull dimension is an algebraic way of capturing the dimension of corresponding geometric objects, so is there some way of doing that with semirings? Or any more in
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Tracking Phishing Bots via Locations(gwern.net)
8 points by ngriffiths 1y ago|0 comments
94.
In Defense of Defensive Forecasting(argmin.net)
2 points by ngriffiths 1y ago|0 comments
95.
by ngriffiths 1y ago
I feel like the news article doesn't emphasize that you aren't "launching" the plane any more than you would by setting it on the roof. So it's really surprising that it all happens in <4 days. I thought atmosphe
96.
by ngriffiths 1y ago
The doc bot goes in the same category as asking a human who has read the docs. In order of helpfulness you could get: - "Oh yeah just write this," except the person is not an expert and it's either wrong or not idiomatic - An
97.
by ngriffiths 1y ago
John Baez wrote a Mastodon thread on this paper here: https://mathstodon.xyz/@johncarlosbaez/114618637031193532 He references a posted comment by Shan Gao[^1] and writes that the problem still seems open, even if this
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by ngriffiths 1y ago
I think in this context "competing" means having a meaningful market share, which would help reduce time the world spends on the alternative useless gamified/addictive apps
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by ngriffiths 1y ago
I agree. I see this becoming a bigger and bigger problem unless someone steps in with significant regulation or major changes like the article says. The other challenge is the regulation part is much easier when the product is, say, heroin.
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by ngriffiths 1y ago
Actually, someone should design one that can pull in quotes. Like as a separate tool the LLM uses to quote that has guarantees, it's just a copy and can't be hallucinated. Then you could see the primary info when it's needed&
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by ngriffiths 1y ago
I agree and am perfectly happy using it as fuzzier web search, because it works really well for me. Finding references is often my main goal, but other times I just want some quick facts, in which case I'll be as thorough with checki
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by ngriffiths 1y ago
I don't think anyone can make a Google today that works as well as it did back then. Google shaped how new content was created, and that was probably a much bigger deal than any changes to the tool itself
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by ngriffiths 1y ago
Hopefully not that fast, but I'm pessimistic. The cost of the human bloat will far surpass the current cost of hallucinations. And like we saw with Google, that bloat can become a feature of the content itself, not just contained in th
104.
by ngriffiths 1y ago
I use it the same way. The feeling is that I'm back in ~2010 when Googling stuff felt like a superpower. I could find anything back then. Of course, it didn't last long, and trying to Google now is an exercise in pain and frustr
105.
Readers won't make it to page 28(blog.griffens.net)
2 points by ngriffiths 1y ago|0 comments
106.
by ngriffiths 2y ago
Oh you're right, it is basically the same, the undervalued stock is the one to buy. I guess I was thinking about another difference which is that the value of stocks seems more vibes-based and a really stupid product (from the investor
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
Yes but unlike with stocks, you don't want to agree with them: if you think people overrate the chances of an event, you'd against it.
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
It matters a lot what the price is of "putin loses." If Putin does in fact lose 5% of the time, but the odds are 3%, you should bet on it. It may feel silly to do that in this instance but consider what happens if you regularly
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
I don't think it's that simple - if other people find out English bookies overrate England, then they make a profit by betting against. I'm not saying every market is perfectly efficient but it would be surprising if a major
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
> The one hard and fast rule Labs did seem to have was that you could not say no to any request for help from any of the applied folks — or other researchers for that matter. Nice example of a simple policy that changes the culture in ex
111.
by ngriffiths 2y ago
Markov chains are super useful in statistics but it isn't obvious at first what problem they solve and how - some further reading that I found helpful: https://twiecki.io/blog/2015/11/10/mcmc-samplin
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
Very cool! I think mentions per word could be a good metric for some of these, otherwise a main takeaway is just "everyone crams in more stuff now."
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
I have, and it's like magic to me. I have no idea how it works!
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
Yeah I've heard this description too, and it makes sense. But I also get the sense that the "chunks" must not just be simplifications of parts of the board, in fact the experts must "see more at once" than the newbi
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
> Congratulations! You now understand databases. Data engineering: doing a lot of fancy work to make a very simple product
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
Makes me wonder how good players "see" the board. Like what parts are "highlighted" and is it always changing as you ponder different aspects of the game, or more static?
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
This is such a good model for how to write a beginner friendly introduction. Especially the motivation for the Ito lemma, with the dW^2 term remaining important even though it disappears in regular calculus, and the conversion to Stratonovi
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
This is super unexpected to me. Sort of tangential but it reminds me of healthcare costs discussions, where orgs like National Nurses United will point to rising sticker prices and say that health systems are screwing us all over. But it&#x
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by ngriffiths 2y ago
I had two experiences at the polar opposites of the spectrum - one research team I worked on had very high standards and was comfortable being patient for material that had value . The other involved an approach that obviously stood no ch
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Weird Kaggle and the Superiority of Books(blog.griffens.net)
65 points by ngriffiths 2y ago|2 comments

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