3 ms·
It matters a lot what the price is of "putin loses." If Putin does in fact lose 5% of the time, but the odds are 3%, you should bet on it. It may feel silly to
by ngriffiths 2y ago
It matters a lot what the price is of "putin loses." If Putin does in fact lose 5% of the time, but the odds are 3%, you should bet on it. It may feel silly to do that in this instance but consider what happens if you regularly bet in prediction markets. Always betting on the "putin wins" outcome loses money in the long run.