mkaic

55 ms·

451.
by mkaic 5y ago
Except the trillions (okay, maybe not trillions ) of dollars would come from selling cheaper energy than everyone else? So energy prices would fall, and if there is competition, which there will be, they'd fall even more.
452.
by mkaic 5y ago
Yeah, TIL that HN literally doesn't allow the word "very" in headlines! Kinda cool, I guess they're trying to fight against sensationalism.
453.
by mkaic 5y ago
Or do we just believe we share a common ancestor? Also, if a machine is trained on data generated by humans, couldn't you argue that the humans are the machine's ancestors?
454.
by mkaic 5y ago
> AGI on the one hand seems to mean convincing even though the people who made it know otherwise That's the rub, though, it's not possible to know otherwise! If you could "know otherwise" you'd be able to prove w
455.
by mkaic 5y ago
I mean, human intelligence is just one big "adaptive algorithm" too, it's just ours took billions of years to train and used natural selection as a loss function. I don't see any fundamental reason why we couldn't d
456.
by mkaic 5y ago
> Futurologists, thought leaders and sci-fi writers may dream of whatever technological future they want, but ask anyone working in the computer science and machine learning fields what they think of AGI and you'll get a much saner
457.
by mkaic 5y ago
(Author here) > There's no actual new theory here, just the same ideas Kurzweil said in the late 90s re-hashed. I have no idea who Kurzweil is. These ideas may not be unique but I have arrived at them at least somewhat independently
458.
by mkaic 5y ago
Yup, I agree. It's inevitable and it's scary but do keep in mind that there's no reason to believe it couldn't also be a positive thing. We have no idea what the long lasting impacts of AGI will be on our society, but we
459.
by mkaic 5y ago
Hmm, I don't think the fact that we have enough processing power (which I think we already do) precludes the possibility that we simply don't know how to use it. AGI isn't going to be a simulation of a human brain, it'
460.
by mkaic 5y ago
Author here, you're totally right! That is a fairly large preconceived notion that I wrote the article with.
461.
by mkaic 5y ago
because the AI will be able to look up detailed schematics of the very silicon it's existing on! We don't have that advantage with our biological meat slabs that we exist in. Besides, it's very likely that the AI will just be
462.
by mkaic 5y ago
I mean, capitalism will also drive prices lower as different providers are forced to compete for demand in the face of nearly unlimited supply. Also, there are startups like Helion[0] which are using magnetic energy recovery instead of boil
463.
by mkaic 5y ago
I mean, wattage is a noun that people use all the time to refer to an amount of power something draws. I can see your point that "efficiency" might not apply to "inference speed". What I meant to say is that AGI will be
464.
by mkaic 5y ago
Domination and killing don't have to be mutually inclusive. Take your example with the ants -- I'd argue that by being a human being, you have dominated the ants. Humans have taken over the entire world and shaped it to their li
465.
by mkaic 5y ago
Thanks! And yeah, criticism is hard haha, maybe I was being too demanding :) I think your position is totally valid and I appreciate you taking the time to respond with ways I could have made my case even just a bit more interesting to you.
466.
by mkaic 5y ago
By your logic, is it possible for you to prove to me that you are conscious? No, it's not. There is nothing you can say or do that can prove beyond doubt to me that you are subjectively experiencing reality with a similar consciousness
467.
by mkaic 5y ago
I specifically omitted "wattage" in my above comment and only said that I think it will be more efficient in "information density and inference speed". I expect the first AGIs will need many kilowatts to run, but I do th
468.
by mkaic 5y ago
This is my view as well. It's a little unnerving and it definitely starts to overlap with the whole "free will" debate, but yeah, I don't see any reason why we can't fundamentally replicate the behaviors exhibited b
469.
by mkaic 5y ago
Thank you! I appreciate you taking the time to read!
470.
by mkaic 5y ago
Hi! I'm the author of the article, and I'm pretty optimistic about fusion as well. I actually expect fusion will happen first, and that the price of energy dropping through the floor will hugely accelerate AGI research!
471.
by mkaic 5y ago
(author here) Haha, maybe, though my original title got edited by a moderator (it was originally a much more overconfident "The Singularity Is Close"), so maybe I've been Betteridge-sniped?
472.
by mkaic 5y ago
Hi! Author here, thanks for sharing your thoughts! Counterarguments: 1. cost per FLOP (in both wattage and dollars) will be drastically lower in 20 years from now. I personally like to think it may be as much as 100x lower, but that'
473.
by mkaic 5y ago
>Is it a computer that is convincing as AGI? Or is it AGI that is essentially like human consciousness in nature? The former is probably possible, given enough time, computational resources, and ingenuity. The latter is generally regarde
474.
by mkaic 5y ago
I agree, my initial response was to defensively think "Oh, there's no way this person can just diss me for being young" but then I realized I was proving their point :P I'm fully aware that my lack of life experience ros
475.
by mkaic 5y ago
Oh believe me, climate change scares the heck out of me too :) I'm really really really rooting for fusion energy to work out soon and solve the energy crisis, but in the meantime I think we need to hard pivot to as much fission ener
476.
by mkaic 5y ago
I fully agree with everything you've written here :)
477.
by mkaic 5y ago
I think the fact that you and I are communicating with each other using insanely complicated leisure items, most likely sitting in expertly crafted buildings and surrounded by countless other signs of humanity's domination of our envir
478.
by mkaic 5y ago
Our sentience and intelligence is what allowed us to optimize the loss function that is natural selection. Who's to say that it can't arise for a second time in a machine with the right loss function?
479.
by mkaic 5y ago
I think the first AGI to pass a Turing test will probably be a simple language model. I don't think it will look like any of the GPTs, but I think text completion is a great starting point. I'm not sure how other inputs will be ad
480.
by mkaic 5y ago
I personally speculate (obviously all of this is just wild speculation) that AGI will run more efficiently than a biological brain in terms of information density and inference speed. I also expect that the hardware of 20 years from now wil

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