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> Futurologists, thought leaders and sci-fi writers may dream of whatever technological future they want, but ask anyone working in the computer science and mac

by mkaic 5y ago

> Futurologists, thought leaders and sci-fi writers may dream of whatever technological future they want, but ask anyone working in the computer science and machine learning fields what they think of AGI and you'll get a much saner answer. Author here. I do work in machine learning, my day job is as a machine learning engineer in a medical lab. There's far from any consensus in the field as to when or if AGI will happen. Some, like me, think it is inevitable and coming very, very soon. Others don't think it's possible at all.

paxys 5y ago
There is a definite possibility that it may eventually happen, but IMO to make claims like "xyz will definitely happen within 20 years" there needs to be a direct line showing how advances happening today will lead to the desired outcome of tomorrow. All such predictions being made today have a big box in the middle titled "magic!" which no one wants to fill in. Sentences like "AI will make AGI" get a lot of upvotes and shares, but ultimately don't really mean anything.
umvi 5y ago
> uthor here. I do work in machine learning, my day job is as a machine learning engineer in a medical lab. Some, like me, think it is inevitable and coming very, very soon Yet industry leaders like Yann LeCun think AGI is nonsense
- lalaithion 5y ago
  In 2019, 32 AI experts participated in a survey on AGI timing: 45% of respondents predict a date before 2060 34% of all participants predicted a date after 2060 21% of participants predicted that singularity will never occur. https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige...
  - bsenftner 5y ago
    That 21% at the bottom are the comprehensively smart and experienced ones, the middle 34% simply need more experience. The 45% predicting an early date are like the newly rich, and do not realize their limits yet.
postalrat 5y ago
If AGI and the singularity is achievable would that increase the odds we are already living in some sort of simulation?

by mkaic 5y ago

paxys 5y ago

There is a definite possibility that it may eventually happen, but IMO to make claims like "xyz will definitely happen within 20 years" there needs to be a direct line showing how advances happening today will lead to the desired outcome of tomorrow. All such predictions being made today have a big box in the middle titled "magic!" which no one wants to fill in. Sentences like "AI will make AGI" get a lot of upvotes and shares, but ultimately don't really mean anything.

umvi 5y ago

> uthor here. I do work in machine learning, my day job is as a machine learning engineer in a medical lab. Some, like me, think it is inevitable and coming very, very soon Yet industry leaders like Yann LeCun think AGI is nonsense

lalaithion 5y ago
In 2019, 32 AI experts participated in a survey on AGI timing: 45% of respondents predict a date before 2060 34% of all participants predicted a date after 2060 21% of participants predicted that singularity will never occur. https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige...
- bsenftner 5y ago
  That 21% at the bottom are the comprehensively smart and experienced ones, the middle 34% simply need more experience. The 45% predicting an early date are like the newly rich, and do not realize their limits yet.

postalrat 5y ago

If AGI and the singularity is achievable would that increase the odds we are already living in some sort of simulation?