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Hi! I'm the author of the article, and I'm pretty optimistic about fusion as well. I actually expect fusion will happen first, and that the price of energy drop
by mkaic 5y ago
Hi! I'm the author of the article, and I'm pretty optimistic about fusion as well. I actually expect fusion will happen first, and that the price of energy dropping through the floor will hugely accelerate AGI research!
- gizajob 5y agoGiven the experimental fusion reactors are only recently producing over-unity of power (for seconds), despite the tens of billions of dollars that have already been spent on them, and even if we can get them to work they'll still just be boiling water to produce steam to run generators, don't expect the price of energy to drop through the floor. Capitalism will attempt to absorb efficiency gains with profit, reinvestment, wastage before it ever reduces prices. Oil and gas already comes out of the ground for free.
- mkaic 5y agoI mean, capitalism will also drive prices lower as different providers are forced to compete for demand in the face of nearly unlimited supply. Also, there are startups like Helion[0] which are using magnetic energy recovery instead of boiling steam for turbines, so I'm personally extremely bullish. Whoever is first to the market with reliable, scalable fusion energy stands to make multiple trillions of dollars -- the incentives could not be more aligned. [0]https://www.helionenergy.com https://www.helionenergy.com
- gizajob 5y agoExactly, you said it. The trillions of dollars will have to come from somewhere and don't equate to unlimited free energy to run AI in a capitalist system.
- mkaic 5y agoExcept the trillions (okay, maybe not trillions) of dollars would come from selling cheaper energy than everyone else? So energy prices would fall, and if there is competition, which there will be, they'd fall even more.