michaelkeenan

9 ms·

31.
by michaelkeenan 8y ago
I haven't read it yet myself, but John Ringo's Black Tide Rising series is on my reading list with this note from a rationalist-fiction-loving friend of mine: "There'll be like twenty pages of epic zombie fighting, and t
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by michaelkeenan 8y ago
I think you're mixing up different news reports. Cuba reduced their mother-child HIV transmission using five generic antiretrovirals that were invented in the USA and Canada: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl
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by michaelkeenan 8y ago
>> we would not have nearly as much innovation in medicine without a profit motive > Most economists? That feels like a claim in need of a citation The usual best place for finding out what economists think is the IGM Economics Exp
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by michaelkeenan 8y ago
Downvotes might be from CMV-norm people[1] thinking "that's bullshit" is rude/inflammatory and unfit for HN. [1] https://changemyview.net/2018/03/28/thats-bullshit-rude-enou...
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
If we trace an idea (like abolition or gender equality) back to its beginnings, we'd expect to find that the idea was controversial. It must take time for an idea to persuade people, even others of the same movement (who might be prima
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
Economists call this a transitional gains trap. Here's an economist discussing it (and a theoretical solution): https://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/2009/09/transitiona...
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
It's more trustworthy than one study because it's a systematic review of many other studies. Reviews of good studies are the best form of evidence[1]. This review was conducted by Cochrane[2]. Cochrane reviews are widely regarded
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
The 18th century version of this was not using an umbrella to preserve demand for coach drivers: "Over the years, Hanway and his umbrella fell victim to all sorts of abuse from Brits he passed on the sidewalk. The most pernicious abuse
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
We're on! Can you email me at michael.keenan [at] gmail so we can be in touch?
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
I'd like to bet against civilization collapsing by January 1, 2020. Given how dire that scenario is, I see the problem ceejayoz pointed out where there might not be much value to money at that point. But maybe we can bet on a precursor
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
Bet on it happening in another continent? Bet on a precursor?
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
If you make that a specific prediction, I might like to bet against it, if you're interested.
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by michaelkeenan 9y ago
The trend looks good: https://ourworldindata.org/genocides/ According to that source, in 2012, for the first time in at least a hundred years, there were no ongoing genocides.
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
The author is a prominent woman journalist, so her experience of the internet probably involves more harassment than most people's.
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
> this is not going to be replacing real meat from animals anytime soon Put your prediction on PredictionBook? It's a great way to keep track of your predictions, and learn to be calibrated (e.g. to have about 80% of your prediction
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
I don't think California will negotiate prices down by 50%, and I would bet on that (conditional on this bill passing). Anyone - old-gregg? - want to take that bet at even odds? I suggest using the total cost of one each from the list
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
Put your prediction on PredictionBook? It's a great way to keep track of your predictions, and learn to be calibrated (e.g. to have about 80% of your predictions-of-80%-likelihood be correct, which doesn't come naturally to people
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
There have been a couple of high-profile cases of this. A prestigious mathematician had lived in New Zealand for four years, but his autistic son was declined residency, so he and his family left: https://www.theguardian.com&#x2F
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
Anyone have any evidence about whether that's true?
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
This seems like good advice, but it's based on one example. If you want depression advice from a psychiatrist who's reviewed the academic literature on depression, try Things That Sometimes Help If You Have Depression from Slate S
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
I think you're mistakenly interpreting that quotation as claiming that there is no relationship between temperature increase and catastrophe losses. But it instead makes narrower claims, such as: he was right to question the report; th
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
> This is not a view shared by developmental psychologists. I was curious about this, so I searched for developmental psychology on the difference between mixed-age and same-age socialization. But what I found (from a very brief search)
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
I get a different impression from the post. Rather than quitting and marriage solving the problem immediately, I think she still has anxiety, because he wrote: "She still has anxiety, and I imagine she always will. But we are able to d
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
I searched for that Krugman quote and found nothing. I think he never wrote it. I think that is exemplary of the problem here - not that economists struggle with facts, but that most people struggle with facts, including facts about other
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
This article gets all its information on from this article from the Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/finland-schoo... I suggest changing the link to point to the Independent article
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
The USA is still slightly an epistocracy because there's a civics test before long-term residents gain the right to vote[1]. I think this element of epistocracy is fine; it's not deliberately racist like the other tests were. Ther
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
This doesn't affect the overall point, but the "lowest unemployment rate" part of the headline is annoyingly unsupported. Googling "lowest unemployment city in the usa" shows a Google featured snippet listing Sioux
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
> nor is it too much regulation, it's too little I think the framing of regulation as a spectrum of less to more is unhelpful. We don't need more regulation, we need better regulation. Some better is more; sometimes it&#x27
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
I think I probably agree with something near your point, but I don't think your examples work. This case - where laws block the sale of internet services - isn't a case of not regulating markets in the hope that a free market magi
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by michaelkeenan 10y ago
> as a parent you just want your kids to be happy I think this isn't universal. "Tiger mother"-style parenting[1] doesn't seem optimized for happiness, and whatever impulse is behind punishing or occasionally murderin

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