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> this is not going to be replacing real meat from animals anytime soon Put your prediction on PredictionBook? It's a great way to keep track of your predictio
by michaelkeenan 10y ago
> this is not going to be replacing real meat from animals anytime soon
Put your prediction on PredictionBook? It's a great way to keep track of your predictions, and learn to be calibrated (e.g. to have about 80% of your predictions-of-80%-likelihood be correct, which doesn't come naturally to people).
http://predictionbook.com/ http://predictionbook.com/
- owenversteeg 10y agoHuh, that actually looks pretty cool. Are there any stats on e.x. how often someone's "80% correct" predictions are actually true?
- lkbm 10y agoI don't know if you can view your stats in comparison with the average user, but once you have some predictions that have ended up right/wrong, you get a nice little graph showing your calibration. For example: http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern Assuming I'm reading it right, the perfectly calibrated guesser would trend towards a straight line going from 50 on the left to 100 on the right. They also have a way-too-addictive game where you can practice calibrating your confidence on a bunch of trivia questions: http://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try http://predictionbook.com/credence_games/try
- tdumitrescu 10y agoIn case this advertisement sounds familiar: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13788836 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13788836