I'd like to bet against civilization collapsing by January 1, 2020. Given how dire that scenario is, I see the problem ceejayoz pointed out where there might no

I'd like to bet against civilization collapsing by January 1, 2020. Given how dire that scenario is, I see the problem ceejayoz pointed out where there might not be much value to money at that point. But maybe we can bet on a precursor, like a stock market crash. There are probably scenarios where the stock market crashes first, but there's still time to use money before civilizational collapse. I think we can solve it like this: if the S&P 500 drops below 50% of today's value (which is 2,562, so the trigger number is 1281), I'll send you $100 immediately, which is hopefully enough time to use that money for buying survival supplies before everything collapses. If that hasn't happened by January 1, 2020, you donate $100 to GiveWell[1]. It's an imperfect measure - I might accidentally lose it due to a nuclear war, but you still might pointlessly win it in a world where the collapse happens extremely quickly, and have a worthless $100 if I'm even still alive and able to use PayPal. But maybe it's good enough? Want to take that bet, or suggest something else? [1] https://www.givewell.org/ https://www.givewell.org/