4 ms·

If you make that a specific prediction, I might like to bet against it, if you're interested.

by michaelkeenan 9y ago

ceejayoz 9y ago
Not the bravest of bets. How's @wazoox supposed to collect from you if the system collapses?
- michaelkeenan 9y ago
  Bet on it happening in another continent? Bet on a precursor?
wazoox 9y ago
Well, let's see, 80% of insects, 60% of birds, 75% of fish have disappeared in 30 years (a blink of an eye). Climate change is already bringing famine and chaos around the world. We have absolutely no credible alternative to fossil fuels. The financial system is in complete disarray. Economists proved GDP is strictly tied to energy consumption (that seems obvious) therefore, they indirectly proved that GDP growth is radically unsustainable on the long term (that made absolutely no doubt to anyone understanding physics, but hey, at least that's proven now). Several specialists announced not only "Peak Oil" (conventional oil peaked years ago, "all liquids" will peak in 2018/2019) but "Peak Everything" (even if we had some magical technology to solve any of the listed problems, we won't have the resources). I deem probable that civilisation collapses before 2020, and almost certain before 2030. What's your bet?
- jopsen 9y ago
  2020 is 3 years away, Trump's tax cuts might give an unrecoverable financial crash by 2020. But I'm not sure that's the end of civilization.. in terms of energy the EU goal is 20% renewable by 2020. Some countries are already at 40% of electricity. There is a lot of work to do, but it's not game over yet.
  - wazoox 9y ago
    Global civilisation collapse is unlikely to be a one-day event. It will be a gradual process over several years, for instance there would be a financial market crash, than an obligation market crash and a global debt crisis, then several of the G20 countries would fall into deep crisis like civil war or dictatorship, global trade will come to a halt, wars on resources would erupt at many points on the globe, then for instance the EU would cease to exist in fact but not in law (governments would pay lip service to it for years without actually complying to its policies) etc. We wouldn't be able to say for sure "this is it, today the civilisation is collapsing". However, at the end of a several years period, billions of people would have been killed by famine, epidemics, wars, etc. Just like the fall of the Roman Empire has been dated to some more or less arbitrary date, but actually was a many years process, actually beginning a century or more before the point we date the "event"; and for people of the time, the Empire wasn't actually dead before several decades at least (and Justinian failure to capture back Rome). So we date the "fall of Roman Empire" to september the 4th, 476; but it was in the making for a century, and wasn't a done deal for another century. Similarly, the "fall of the thermo-industrial civilisation" or "American Empire" or whatever else we'll call it will be set up to some day at some later date in the future.
- michaelkeenan 9y ago
  I'd like to bet against civilization collapsing by January 1, 2020. Given how dire that scenario is, I see the problem ceejayoz pointed out where there might not be much value to money at that point. But maybe we can bet on a precursor, like a stock market crash. There are probably scenarios where the stock market crashes first, but there's still time to use money before civilizational collapse. I think we can solve it like this: if the S&P 500 drops below 50% of today's value (which is 2,562, so the trigger number is 1281), I'll send you $100 immediately, which is hopefully enough time to use that money for buying survival supplies before everything collapses. If that hasn't happened by January 1, 2020, you donate $100 to GiveWell[1]. It's an imperfect measure - I might accidentally lose it due to a nuclear war, but you still might pointlessly win it in a world where the collapse happens extremely quickly, and have a worthless $100 if I'm even still alive and able to use PayPal. But maybe it's good enough? Want to take that bet, or suggest something else? [1] https://www.givewell.org/ https://www.givewell.org/
  - wazoox 9y ago
    Sounds reasonable to me :)
    - michaelkeenan 9y ago
      We're on! Can you email me at michael.keenan [at] gmail so we can be in touch?

If you make that a specific prediction, I might like to bet against it, if you're interested.

ceejayoz 9y ago

Not the bravest of bets. How's @wazoox supposed to collect from you if the system collapses?

michaelkeenan 9y ago
Bet on it happening in another continent? Bet on a precursor?

wazoox 9y ago

Well, let's see, 80% of insects, 60% of birds, 75% of fish have disappeared in 30 years (a blink of an eye). Climate change is already bringing famine and chaos around the world. We have absolutely no credible alternative to fossil fuels. The financial system is in complete disarray. Economists proved GDP is strictly tied to energy consumption (that seems obvious) therefore, they indirectly proved that GDP growth is radically unsustainable on the long term (that made absolutely no doubt to anyone understanding physics, but hey, at least that's proven now). Several specialists announced not only "Peak Oil" (conventional oil peaked years ago, "all liquids" will peak in 2018/2019) but "Peak Everything" (even if we had some magical technology to solve any of the listed problems, we won't have the resources). I deem probable that civilisation collapses before 2020, and almost certain before 2030. What's your bet?

jopsen 9y ago
2020 is 3 years away, Trump's tax cuts might give an unrecoverable financial crash by 2020. But I'm not sure that's the end of civilization.. in terms of energy the EU goal is 20% renewable by 2020. Some countries are already at 40% of electricity. There is a lot of work to do, but it's not game over yet.
- wazoox 9y ago
  Global civilisation collapse is unlikely to be a one-day event. It will be a gradual process over several years, for instance there would be a financial market crash, than an obligation market crash and a global debt crisis, then several of the G20 countries would fall into deep crisis like civil war or dictatorship, global trade will come to a halt, wars on resources would erupt at many points on the globe, then for instance the EU would cease to exist in fact but not in law (governments would pay lip service to it for years without actually complying to its policies) etc. We wouldn't be able to say for sure "this is it, today the civilisation is collapsing". However, at the end of a several years period, billions of people would have been killed by famine, epidemics, wars, etc. Just like the fall of the Roman Empire has been dated to some more or less arbitrary date, but actually was a many years process, actually beginning a century or more before the point we date the "event"; and for people of the time, the Empire wasn't actually dead before several decades at least (and Justinian failure to capture back Rome). So we date the "fall of Roman Empire" to september the 4th, 476; but it was in the making for a century, and wasn't a done deal for another century. Similarly, the "fall of the thermo-industrial civilisation" or "American Empire" or whatever else we'll call it will be set up to some day at some later date in the future.
michaelkeenan 9y ago
I'd like to bet against civilization collapsing by January 1, 2020. Given how dire that scenario is, I see the problem ceejayoz pointed out where there might not be much value to money at that point. But maybe we can bet on a precursor, like a stock market crash. There are probably scenarios where the stock market crashes first, but there's still time to use money before civilizational collapse. I think we can solve it like this: if the S&P 500 drops below 50% of today's value (which is 2,562, so the trigger number is 1281), I'll send you $100 immediately, which is hopefully enough time to use that money for buying survival supplies before everything collapses. If that hasn't happened by January 1, 2020, you donate $100 to GiveWell[1]. It's an imperfect measure - I might accidentally lose it due to a nuclear war, but you still might pointlessly win it in a world where the collapse happens extremely quickly, and have a worthless $100 if I'm even still alive and able to use PayPal. But maybe it's good enough? Want to take that bet, or suggest something else? [1] https://www.givewell.org/ https://www.givewell.org/
- wazoox 9y ago
  Sounds reasonable to me :)
  - michaelkeenan 9y ago
    We're on! Can you email me at michael.keenan [at] gmail so we can be in touch?