jnbiche

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31.
by jnbiche 6y ago
I agree. The 1957 Asian Flu pandemic is widely considered to be the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. Most figures I see for UK deaths from the Asian Flu in 1957 range from 3500 (for just England and Wales) to 30,000 (whic
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Have you read the Ferguson paper? From the re-tweet you posted, I doubt it. The 1.2 million figure was the absolute highest estimate in the whole paper, and was mentioned off-hand as a worst case scenario if no preventive measures were take
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by jnbiche 6y ago
I don't understand why certain media are lauding Sweden's strategy. It's not succeeding by any objective standard. For example, if you filter out tiny countries like Andorra (which result in statistical aberrations), Sweden h
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by jnbiche 6y ago
New Math was very far from Common Core. New Math included generous coursework on abstract algebra and discrete mathematics, both of which are almost entirely ignored in Common Core. Common Core is carefully considered, but pretty traditiona
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> Well, that's exactly what I was referring to. 80% of the time you don't / can't know what to do with the error at a given call site If you're working with a `Result` type, you can pass the wrapped value up to w
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> I've seen that all over HN comments Can you point me to some examples? I've seen it on HN, but much, much less than on any other online platform.
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> I'm not defending a troll here. But that's exactly what you're doing. > In that case, just silly trolling has the potential to destabilize a system, then it's not very robust. Just because we live in a non-robust
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Static site generators are superior to server-side includes/dynamic server frameworks + caching in some aspects (in other aspects, dynamic server frameworks w/caching are better). One example: there are security advantages of st
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Also, to add a possible answer to the final question above, on why would they cover it up? Well, if the Hubei provincial government covered the whole accidental release up, and if the Xi Jinping wasn't aware of it, I think he would pro
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by jnbiche 6y ago
It's really strange to me that you call this a "fantastical explanation" when there have already been 2 accidental lab releases resulting in human illness and death that were acknowledged by the Chinese government of a viru
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Your assertion was, "At the very least, proponent of this theory should be able to provide evidence that bats or viral samples from bats were present in the lab before the outbreak". Yes, it's clear they were working with liv
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> At the very least, proponent of this theory should be able to provide evidence that bats or viral samples from bats were present in the lab before the outbreak This is described for both labs that were doing bat research in published,
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> but from the data the likelihood really doesn't strongly favor any of the two hypotheses. I mostly agree with this. I personally think the totality of the evidence favors the lab hypothesis, for a variety of reasons (note the the
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by jnbiche 6y ago
You misunderstand scientific consensus. One group has proposed the Pangolin connection. Several other groups believe that it was bats. Most are undecided. That's not consensus. > iplomatic cables that aren't released in their e
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> * Most of the first cases had a direct tie to the market False. Few of the initial cases had any tie to the market. Multiple outlets have reported this from the beginning, even before the lab theory started circulating here in the US:
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> Were you talking about SARS or COVID19 with the 99% comment? SARS and Civet coronaviruses. The closest match of any host or vector coronavirus to human Covid-19 has been a 96% match in _Rhinolophus affinis_ (a bat). That's also th
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> An accidental lab transmission from bats to pangolins to humans (currently thought likely) is much harder to believe. The pangolin hypothesis has been proposed by one research group, as far as I can tell. A whole-genome comparison foun
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Yes, and that would be entirely consistent with the scenario discussed in my comment. Did you read it? You seem to be responding to some other comment about an engineered virus, which no one here is even discussing. I get the feeling people
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by jnbiche 6y ago
I actually believe him that there were strict control and containment measures were in place in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which runs the BL4 laboratory. No one is going to fool around carelessly with BL4 pathogens. That said, an acci
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by jnbiche 6y ago
I'm not sure. If this was a lab accident(big if), it's possible that a whistleblower could succeed in defecting. I'm guessing Western intelligence agencies also are hard at work at this issue, using assets and technologies
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by jnbiche 6y ago
I'm assuming you didn't bother reading my comment. No one here is discussing biological weapons except for you. I'm talking about a lab accident in a normal lab involving bat pee or bat blood. There were two accidental releas
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Yeah, if "faxing" is the analogy, then 3D scanning and printing along with the internet should win this one. It's an ambiguous definition. As you say, faxing isn't teleportation.
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Agreed. And by the bet's definition, 1M causalities is defined specifically as "requiring hospitalization", so we'll likely reach that easily in a 6 month period.
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Not sure why they're so quick to write off Long Bet #9. It's highly likely we'll reach 1,000,000 worldwide casualties from Covid-19 during a 6-month period before the end of year (defined in the bet's terms as "hosp
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> If AWS wasn't profitable, AMZN would not be able to grow Amazon wasn't even profitable until 10 years after its founding. So that's demonstrably incorrect. BTW, the thesis that "if a business isn't profitable,
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Amazon makes almost 50% of their annual revenue from online retail. Many billions of dollars. It's by far their biggest product category. Yes, through accounting magic, they're making the majority of their profits via AWS, but tha
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by jnbiche 6y ago
Ah, you had me going until you referred to the Orwell essay. Poe's Law strikes again.
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by jnbiche 6y ago
> We need to flood the world with so many masks that you get one for free every time you walk into a store. Figure that out soon and this economy will rebound. I'm pro-mask, but masks are but a small part of what it will take for th
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by jnbiche 6y ago
I agree.
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by jnbiche 6y ago
< Everyone claims to not obey it but the force of tribalism is strong. There is no enlightened man above it. Oh, I think that as a American who disdains both major political parties, I can claim that honor. > The best use it well. Sur

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