Have you read the Ferguson paper? From the re-tweet you posted, I doubt it. The 1.2 million figure was the absolute highest estimate in the whole paper, and was

Have you read the Ferguson paper? From the re-tweet you posted, I doubt it. The 1.2 million figure was the absolute highest estimate in the whole paper, and was mentioned off-hand as a worst case scenario if no preventive measures were taken. In fact, if you read his paper and look at his estimated deaths under various different interventions and time period, and the current death toll, he actually may have underestimated the death toll. Here, read the paper: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...