jcfrei

49 ms·

511.
by jcfrei 6y ago
This Cantillon effects keeps getting mentioned even though it's well outside of mainstream economics. And its convoluted explanation is not accurate in modern financial markets. The reality is much simpler. The FED intervenes by buyin
512.
by jcfrei 6y ago
> So when the wealthy* get money for their assets from the Fed, they aren't really buying the same things normal people are buying. So inflation so far has not crept into normal things. It has crept into wealthy* people things, a l
513.
by jcfrei 6y ago
Same is happening in Japan, Europe, China, etc.
514.
Libra Association: FINMA licensing process initiated(finma.ch)
3 points by jcfrei 7y ago|0 comments
515.
by jcfrei 7y ago
The size of the derivatives market is misleading. The figures represent notional amounts that means these amounts are not paid for in cash. A big share of these derivatives are likely to be interest rate swaps where one counterparty receive
516.
by jcfrei 7y ago
The coinmarketcap volume is not legit at all. They created the adjusted volume metric but it's still plain wrong. They currently show a 24h volume of $112Bn and a total market cap of $182Bn - that's just ridiculous.
517.
by jcfrei 7y ago
I guess this would count as financial engineering though.
518.
by jcfrei 7y ago
We would expect it under certain circumstances. One explanation could be falling interest rates. Lower rates on bonds incentivize investors to take on more risk (moving more money into equities) in order to still meet their return targets.
519.
by jcfrei 7y ago
Very one-sided take on globalization. Unless every country would completely close their borders the virus would have eventually spread everywhere anyway. While medical equipment is temporarily out of stock in some countries, globalization a
520.
by jcfrei 7y ago
They could easily create a better simulation with a moving block bootstrap method. That is by sampling consecutive returns (for example for a whole week) and create a new time series with them.
521.
by jcfrei 7y ago
I don't know about the demand side but supply is definitely going up around the world. For the massive stimulus packages in the US and Europe lots of new bonds will be issued by governments. Additionally lots of companies around the wo
522.
by jcfrei 7y ago
As usual Matt Levine has a pretty good take on this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-17/the-go...
523.
Renaissance tripped up by coronavirus-induced market upheaval(ft.com)
2 points by jcfrei 7y ago|1 comments
524.
Covid-19 Scenarios(neherlab.org)
4 points by jcfrei 7y ago|0 comments
525.
by jcfrei 7y ago
I was trying to emphasize the "based on personal experience" part. Of course you can still criticize the government. But elections have time and time again shown that the opinion of experts matters much less to the electorate than
526.
by jcfrei 7y ago
He's gonna win. A viral outbreak like this has no precedent for anyone still alive. So it's hard to criticize the government based on personal experience. If they demonstrate leadership and decisive action that should be enough fo
527.
by jcfrei 7y ago
> Speculation on my part as I still don’t fully grok repo markets and only have a vague sense of how the treasuries market impacts equities but I’ll continue. From my understanding the US treasury market is the most liquid and largest m
528.
by jcfrei 7y ago
Lots of good answers below. Additionally most of the trading happens in the opening and closing minutes. So you could trade almost the same volume even when the exchange only opened for 15 minutes per day (let's say once in the morning
529.
by jcfrei 7y ago
I agree with 1,2 and 4. However why shouldn't this help with liquidity problems for insurers?
530.
Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells(scmp.com)
11 points by jcfrei 7y ago|0 comments
531.
by jcfrei 7y ago
How often does that happen though? You search for a specific brand of razors and then you see an ad for Bar razors and you just change your mind? Most of the people will click the first link in the results expecting it to be a link to the F
532.
by jcfrei 7y ago
One simple and effective policy change could be to forbid bidding on keywords which are names of a competitors company or brand. A lot of marketing expenses are wasted on these types of keywords and only benefit Google but neither the user
533.
by jcfrei 7y ago
> The TL;DR to me is it's a complicated way to subsidise the hydrogen economy? I get that impression too. The widespread usage of gasoline for passenger cars has created lots of jobs: Driving trucks for gasoline transportation, main
534.
by jcfrei 7y ago
There have been quite a few cases covered in the press about patients which carried the virus but didn't show any symptoms. Most recently: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Three...
535.
by jcfrei 7y ago
I'm not an expert on viruses by any means but that seems unnecessarily pessimistic. The number of infections is likely much much higher than the confirmed cases (laboratories have only so many test kits available per day) but most peop
536.
by jcfrei 7y ago
> And beside serious investors, for the typical individual, a home loan allows them to leverage funds that are unimaginably beyond what they could raise for investment with vastly more safety. Not that I suggest it would be better if hal
537.
by jcfrei 7y ago
> land/housing prices will quickly recover and continue to outpace wage growth and many other productive investments Saying land/housing prices are outpacing many other productive investments seems like a stretch. If you look a
538.
by jcfrei 7y ago
There are huge economies of scale in finance as well. The time it would require you to maintain the index would most likely cost you more than the management fee on the index.
539.
by jcfrei 7y ago
A very interesting proposal. Given the current ultra low interest rates all the costs could be directly monetized by the central banks (via "climate bonds"), rather than making governments pay or introducing helicopter money when
540.
by jcfrei 7y ago
Nice! Really reminds me of the Unknown Pleasures album by Joy Division. Edit: Just noticed it's called a "joy plot" in the repo.

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