4 ms·

I'm not an expert on viruses by any means but that seems unnecessarily pessimistic. The number of infections is likely much much higher than the confirmed cases

by jcfrei 7y ago

I'm not an expert on viruses by any means but that seems unnecessarily pessimistic. The number of infections is likely much much higher than the confirmed cases (laboratories have only so many test kits available per day) but most people stay asymptomatic. This would reduce the actual mortality rate, not increase it.

btilly 7y ago
The number of infections is likely much much higher than the confirmed cases (laboratories have only so many test kits available per day) but most people stay asymptomatic. Do you have evidence of that in this case? Viruses vary widely on how many are asymptomatic. My understanding is that having people be infectious and asymptomatic only happens with diseases that are well-adapted to their hosts. Which this one, having recently crossed a species barrier, isn't. (Its fatality rate is also high for the same reason.) However that is a general understanding and I don't have data to base it on on this case. Do you?
- jcfrei 7y ago
  There have been quite a few cases covered in the press about patients which carried the virus but didn't show any symptoms. Most recently: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Three-Japanese-evacuees-from-Wuhan-test-positive-for-coronavirus https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Three...
  - btilly 7y ago
    Thanks. If they in fact can't transmit, then this is OK. If they can or, even worse, have a long latency period and will show symptoms in 2 weeks, that is very, very scary. Our best tool for diseases like this is contact tracing. And asymptomatic carriers make that very hard. (Useless trivia, the first documented asymptomatic carrier who was infectious was a short order cook named Mary Mallon. She is better known as Typhoid Mary.)
    - underwater 7y ago
      She wasn't a short order cook, she cooked for a number of families.
      - btilly 7y ago
        She was both. When she was first identified, she cooked for a number of families. The outbreak that got her put away for life was due to working as a cook at Sloane Hospital for Women. I cannot immediately find record of her being a short order cook specifically. However that is my recollection from https://www.amazon.com/Betrayal-Trust-Collapse-Global-Public/dp/0786884401 https://www.amazon.com/Betrayal-Trust-Collapse-Global-Public...
        Zod666 7y ago
        There's a good docu on her story. It might be on YouTube.
2019-nCoV 7y ago
If indeed most people stay asymptomatic (but contagious), you're right that the actual mortality rate is lower. But this same outlook would translate to an increase in total fatalities as it greatly complicates containment.

by jcfrei 7y ago

btilly 7y ago

The number of infections is likely much much higher than the confirmed cases (laboratories have only so many test kits available per day) but most people stay asymptomatic. Do you have evidence of that in this case? Viruses vary widely on how many are asymptomatic. My understanding is that having people be infectious and asymptomatic only happens with diseases that are well-adapted to their hosts. Which this one, having recently crossed a species barrier, isn't. (Its fatality rate is also high for the same reason.) However that is a general understanding and I don't have data to base it on on this case. Do you?

jcfrei 7y ago
There have been quite a few cases covered in the press about patients which carried the virus but didn't show any symptoms. Most recently: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Three-Japanese-evacuees-from-Wuhan-test-positive-for-coronavirus https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus-outbreak/Three...
- btilly 7y ago
  Thanks. If they in fact can't transmit, then this is OK. If they can or, even worse, have a long latency period and will show symptoms in 2 weeks, that is very, very scary. Our best tool for diseases like this is contact tracing. And asymptomatic carriers make that very hard. (Useless trivia, the first documented asymptomatic carrier who was infectious was a short order cook named Mary Mallon. She is better known as Typhoid Mary.)
  - underwater 7y ago
    She wasn't a short order cook, she cooked for a number of families.
    - btilly 7y ago
      She was both. When she was first identified, she cooked for a number of families. The outbreak that got her put away for life was due to working as a cook at Sloane Hospital for Women. I cannot immediately find record of her being a short order cook specifically. However that is my recollection from https://www.amazon.com/Betrayal-Trust-Collapse-Global-Public/dp/0786884401 https://www.amazon.com/Betrayal-Trust-Collapse-Global-Public...
      - Zod666 7y ago
        There's a good docu on her story. It might be on YouTube.

2019-nCoV 7y ago

If indeed most people stay asymptomatic (but contagious), you're right that the actual mortality rate is lower. But this same outlook would translate to an increase in total fatalities as it greatly complicates containment.