groby_b

35 ms·

661.
by groby_b 2y ago
You... might want to inform yourself a bit more before making proclamations about the future. LLMs have fairly well understood failure modes. They have incredible strengths, too. And they differ very much by what you use. If the ChatGPT you
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by groby_b 2y ago
I have to admit, I don't get it. (And I want to be clear that's a personal statement, not an overall comment on the app. It looks quite well done, and if others get value from it, awesome!) But for me, I'm stuck with question
663.
by groby_b 2y ago
You are I think wrong. IIRC commissioned ~2010-ish, and first (failed) flight test in 2019. I do not think there is a world where NASA commissions something from Boeing, and it's kind of ready-ish 2 years later. There are meetings to b
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by groby_b 2y ago
> If one option loses them less money they'll pick that option It's a nice idea to think human beings are strictly rational, but they aren't. We've long known, homo economicus had his funeral in the 90s. Amos Tversky
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by groby_b 2y ago
I am willing to bet that this change would achieve approximately nothing. The people who have a mental model that allows them to understand what torque is and how it matters for drilling are the same people who will already know it's c
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by groby_b 2y ago
> When fertility rates went sub-replacement, humanity became functionally extinct, at least in those regions. That is... also a way to look at it. 1) Migration is a thing, so unless total fertility is sub-replacement, "functionally
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by groby_b 2y ago
You see the "super-simplified" at the beginning of the explanation? So, no. Neither does that explanation account for overconsumption, food waste & spoilage, crop mixes, erosion & desertification, water supply shifts, etc.
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by groby_b 2y ago
Super-simplified explanation: Three things matter for carrying capacity. 1) How many calories does a human need to survive? 2) How many calories can we squeeze out of an acre of arable land? 3) How many acres of arable land are there? The f
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by groby_b 2y ago
Maybe. But these are all random assumptions, and we have no way of taking them into account without a lot of work on the modeling. But the point I was trying to make (badly, based on where the discussion is going :) was that "two whist
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by groby_b 2y ago
It's... just barely probable with two people. Assuming 30 whistleblowers, and an actuarial likelihood of 1.2% death[1] in a given year at their ages, we can use binomial probability[2] to determine the chance of two dying in a given ye
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by groby_b 2y ago
This is likely not an answer. Small-scale sustenance farming is not enough to support humanity at scale. (Without ag-industry methods, we're about 4 billion people past the planets carrying capacity) Also, if that small farm is somethi
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by groby_b 2y ago
> The plants are living beings, if they are allowed to behave like living beings without being crippled, perhaps the varieties will continue to exist naturally without said support. Alas, there are too many humans for that. So, either yo
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by groby_b 2y ago
At least for Guitar, that's far from what you need even for simple scoring. I'd be surprised if you get enough support for fairly straightforward piano scores either. Don't get me wrong, this is amazing work. It's likely
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by groby_b 2y ago
Did you transcribe manually? Or is there some sort of service that gets most of the job done via OCR?
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by groby_b 2y ago
... until influencers can prove they're human, at which point they'll become highly sought after. People watch influencers because they want to hear from a person who tried the product. We can argue how much value paid recommendat
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by groby_b 3y ago
It didn't quite disappear. AFAICT, the core team is working on NewNode now: https://www.newnode.com/firechat The text mentions an anodyne "for business reasons", so that should leave the door wide open for an
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by groby_b 3y ago
"Unfortunately, the GNOME Foundation has not published any data in close to two years." No, not "unfortunately". The reporting cycle of not-for-profits means that currently, the 2022 annual report is what you can get. Th
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by groby_b 3y ago
Given the number of AI deaths (a handful, if we're counting very generously) and gun deaths, or car deaths, or even deaths caused by refusal to vaccinate, I'm fascinated we're choosing autocomplete on steroids as a "very
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by groby_b 3y ago
If you've ever had to figure out a weird behavior that was ultimately the result of unsiloed apps just hanging out in each other's data, or had to deal with an uncontrolled Smalltalk object soup, you'll have strong opinions o
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by groby_b 3y ago
And if wishes were horses... ;) Kidding aside: That's the whole point. This is a project that can work without retooling infra all over the world. It's a drop-in replacement to get to carbon-neutral fuel. This solves problems righ
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by groby_b 3y ago
Because we kinda know how to do natgas storage/transport/use at large scale, while we're not quite there on the hydrogen economy. Higher complexity hydrocarbons likely have higher synthesis costs, and if you want to enter the
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by groby_b 3y ago
It's an excellent way forward because it's not only carbon-neutral, it can also "fall back" to pure CO2 capture should we ever get a decent enough grid & storage mechanisms to afford that. Really exciting work!
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by groby_b 3y ago
IIRC, kuro5hin and others all left out a crucial step in the web-of-trust approach: There were absolutely no repercussions when you extended trust to somebody who later turned out to be a bad actor. It considers trust to be an individual me
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by groby_b 3y ago
Sure. Would you also remark on their hair color? Shoe size? First letter of their name? Because those are likely about as relevant to their choice of advertising medium. It might be true, but there's no relevance. And the point isn&#x2
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by groby_b 3y ago
Their competence is measured by their success, not your opinions. And it turns out that in many professions, an insta is the thing you need for success. If you don't like it, that's your problem, not theirs. You're part of a
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by groby_b 3y ago
Yes. If you hack stuff together, you need much less support than if you try to do engineering. Source: Having spent almost 4 decades on this fun, both on hackety-hack world and engineering world, both as IC and manager. The role exists for
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by groby_b 3y ago
+1 on the managing part not working for me either. If I'm tired, I don't want to read a book on how we sleep. I want a book to fade out to and fall asleep :)
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by groby_b 3y ago
Ah yes, global ocean temperatures are famously tied to winter on a single continent.
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by groby_b 3y ago
Yep. There's a paper somewhere claiming that the lower bound is ~5.1 bits/move, based on an exhaustive analysis of existing games. https://www.chessprogramming.org/Encoding_Moves sort-of mentions it (search for 5.
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by groby_b 3y ago
Lichess covered that :) https://lichess.org/@/lichess/blog/developer-update-275-impr...

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