4 ms·

It's... just barely probable with two people. Assuming 30 whistleblowers, and an actuarial likelihood of 1.2% death[1] in a given year at their ages, we can use

It's... just barely probable with two people. Assuming 30 whistleblowers, and an actuarial likelihood of 1.2% death[1] in a given year at their ages, we can use binomial probability[2] to determine the chance of two dying in a given year. The math works out to a 4.4% chance. That's a bit of an eye raiser, but still just believable. (Look, we all believe it can happen we roll a critical in D&D ;) 3 or more dying in a year, we're at 0.5% - I'd really assume that's deliberate. [1] Actuarial tables: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html [2] Calculator if you want to play with probabilities: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=binomial+probability+calculator&assumption=%7B%22F%22%2C+%22BinomialProbabilities%22%2C+%22x%22%7D+-%3E%2227%22&assumption=%7B%22F%22%2C+%22BinomialProbabilities%22%2C+%22n%22%7D+-%3E%2230%22&assumption=%7B%22F%22%2C+%22BinomialProbabilities%22%2C+%22p%22%7D+-%3E%220.988%22 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=binomial+probability+ca...

htss2013 2y ago
Can we not make a reasonable assumption that whistleblowers against a powerful company have a much higher than average risk of dying? Knowing nothing about them personally we can reasonably conclude: - They get regular death threats. - The opposing law firms probably have PIs digging into their lives for dirt to discredit them. - Their careers in their line of work are over and as far as I know, there's no whistle-blower retirement fund. - Everyone they knew and worked with for many years and who still works there probably cut them off for fear of being associated with them. - Because of all this their sleep is probably horrible, they're much more likely to have unhealthy alcohol habits, and to have financial problems.
- groby_b 2y ago
  Maybe. But these are all random assumptions, and we have no way of taking them into account without a lot of work on the modeling. But the point I was trying to make (badly, based on where the discussion is going :) was that "two whistleblowers dying is still somewhat probable". Increased likelihood of death just makes it more probable.

htss2013 2y ago

Can we not make a reasonable assumption that whistleblowers against a powerful company have a much higher than average risk of dying? Knowing nothing about them personally we can reasonably conclude: - They get regular death threats. - The opposing law firms probably have PIs digging into their lives for dirt to discredit them. - Their careers in their line of work are over and as far as I know, there's no whistle-blower retirement fund. - Everyone they knew and worked with for many years and who still works there probably cut them off for fear of being associated with them. - Because of all this their sleep is probably horrible, they're much more likely to have unhealthy alcohol habits, and to have financial problems.

groby_b 2y ago
Maybe. But these are all random assumptions, and we have no way of taking them into account without a lot of work on the modeling. But the point I was trying to make (badly, based on where the discussion is going :) was that "two whistleblowers dying is still somewhat probable". Increased likelihood of death just makes it more probable.