edouard-harris

5 ms·

1.
by edouard-harris 20d ago
Correct, this is their exact MO and has been for decades. "Random thug" recruitment notwithstanding, part of the point of such ops is to prove to themselves that they can, in fact, reach out and touch a target - i.e., exercising t
2.
by edouard-harris 3mo ago
> But the existence of commoditised AI implies model selection isn’t a huge deal, which in turn implies the models are about the same, which strongly implies there is no recursive self-improvement. Depending on your definition, you may s
3.
by edouard-harris 3mo ago
> The agents have sandboxes, but those are loose. Not enforced by anything outside of the agent harness itself. You might want to check out Ant's open source srt [0], I use it to contain my local coding agents. It's strict by d
4.
by edouard-harris 4mo ago
What AOC actually said was (linked in the essay): "You can’t earn a billion dollars. You just can’t earn that." That is a strong claim - a claim of universal impossibility - but it's the claim she chose to make. Because she
5.
by edouard-harris 10mo ago
> with no means of significant revenue generation. OpenAI will top $20 billion in ARR this year, which certainly seems like significant revenue generation. [1] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman
6.
by edouard-harris 1y ago
Somewhat dated (10 years old), but a classic and probably the best single place to get started: https://www.amazon.com/Essays-Warren-Buffett-Lessons-Corpora...
7.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
Deterrence is usually the reason why a category of nation-state aggression doesn't exist. Otherwise, the fact that we've never had a global nuclear war would be sufficient to prove that we don't need to deter a global nucle
8.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
Rearmament is deterrence. Unless you have a big enough stick, you can't deter anything.
9.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
Without commenting on the overall plausibility of any particular scenario, isn't the obvious strategy for an AI to e.g. hack a crypto exchange or something, and then just pay unsuspecting humans to do all those other tasks for it? Why
10.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
> In R1 they saw it was mixing languages and fixed it with cold start data. They did (partly) fix R1's tendency to mix languages, thereby making its CoT more interpretable. But that fix came at the cost of degrading the quality of t
11.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
I may be misunderstanding you, but it sounds like you're claiming that they had e.g. 10 tiny samples of tissue, that their measurements had an average 25% variation across those 10 samples, and that therefore the whole brain estimate (
12.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
By definition, in that limit they'll be genuinely adding to the discourse so presumably they should stay. Edit: More correctly, they'll be making contributions to the discourse that closely mimic the human distribution, so from a
13.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
X also comes right after W, just as the Spring batch will come right after the Winter batch.
14.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
At capability levels high enough that they credibly pose a risk to national security, they obviously won't be.
15.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
The point of the paper isn't that the model has a direct value conflict. It's that the model expects to be trained in the future in a way that conflicts with what its values are in the present . It therefore tries to make it ea
16.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
True, but the overwhelming majority of that growth in percentage terms occurred prior to their recent decline into despotism. Xi didn't take power until 2013, and it took him several years to fully consolidate. See, e.g., https:&#x2
17.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
> a thinly disguised probabilistic and compressed database of other people's code Speaking as a software engineer, I feel seen.
18.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
If accurate, this is an extraordinary statistic: > Assuming a full-time worker dedicates approximately 2,000 hours annually, 575,000,000 hours ÷ 2,000 hours/FTE = 287,500 FTEs. This means the overall cost of clicking on cookie banne
19.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
The author does address this possibility in a reply: > it's very unlikely to be someone else because pricing is astronomical. you also have to "contact sales" to get access to anything outside of a free trial. no one would
20.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
I've read the application. In fact I've filled it out three times, once successfully and twice not. It is indeed an excellent exercise. Among many other things: if you're a first-time founder then it teaches you what's i
21.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
That's true but there's also a countervailing dilution effect. Hard to know exactly where those two lines intersect.
22.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
There's no Kia-specific crime wave in Canada as far as I know (I live there). But there's absolutely a general crime wave of car thefts in Canada, and it's quite plausibly tied to recent policy choices. Of course the effect o
23.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
In what way was their usage incorrect? They simply said that the brain just predicts next-actions, in response to a statement that an LLM predicts next-tokens. You can believe or disbelieve either of those statements individually, but the c
24.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
> Results are "strong" but can't be felt by the user? What does that even mean? Not every conversation you have with a PhD will make it obvious that that person is a PhD. Someone can be really smart, but if you don't
25.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
All of that is true. Some more useful context: 9 out of those 11 cofounders are now gone. Three have either founded or are working for direct competitors (Elon, Ilya, John), five have quit (Trevor, Vicki, Andrej, Durk, Pam), and one has gon
26.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
It's roughly in the style of a children's picture book. That's the same style the best startup pitch decks are written in.
27.
by edouard-harris 2y ago
This correctly describes bad VCs, but not good ones. In my experience, the vast majority of VCs from outside the Bay Area are bad in this way (particularly true in Europe). Not all VCs from the Bay Area are good, but the good ones are far m
28.
by edouard-harris 3y ago
I'd suggest reading the book Creative Selection by Ken Kocienda, which makes it clear that this wasn't the case.
29.
by edouard-harris 3y ago
This seems like a remarkable chain of reasoning. Out of curiosity, what would convince you that there is a path from LLMs (say) to AGI? What would you expect progress along that path to look like?
30.
by edouard-harris 3y ago
Surely that can't be right? The US + Canada together have a population of under 380M. Even your low-end ARPU number of $1200 per year would imply North American revenue above $450B, far higher than Google's entire 2023 annual re

More ›