darawk

33 ms·

121.
by darawk 4y ago
This would be easy to cryptographically certify, this is not a problem.
122.
by darawk 4y ago
This is addressed in the article.
123.
by darawk 4y ago
Of course. But it lets every individual check this, which means if any individual's balance is not included, they can publish that. It is a vast improvement over the current state.
124.
by darawk 4y ago
Humans have been solving the problems of existing technology with more technology for quite a while now. This comment is like criticizing database indexes as a mere technical band-aid over the fundamental problem of having too much data.
125.
by darawk 4y ago
The idea is that the exchange publishes a sum of their liabilities, and each individual user can check that their balance was uniquely included in the sum, cryptographically.
126.
by darawk 4y ago
That's certainly a valid point on the trade-off curve to choose. But you could make a similarly reductionist argument about free speech, guns, home chemistry sets, etc. I think the position that "money is too important to be open&
127.
by darawk 4y ago
What, precisely, are you saying is not true? You need a decentralized consensus mechanism in order to solve the double-spend problem, unless you've come up with something novel.
128.
by darawk 4y ago
The utility of decentralized blockchains is that they facilitate permissionless financial innovation. Yes, that means "regulatory arbitrage". But not just circumventing the law, more importantly, circumventing the de facto law o
129.
by darawk 4y ago
The essential difference between PMC and Entrepreneur is skin in the game. Musk is the manage and primary equity owner, whereas the PMC is managerial only. Whether that's good, bad or indifferent is up to you, but the whole point of
130.
by darawk 4y ago
I'm aware of this scheme. But I don't think you understand why it works. Track records are absolutely evidence of skill, if you understand the distribution from which they're drawn. Elon's track record is very, very far
131.
by darawk 4y ago
I don't know how you're measuring "greatest" but I certainly consider his greatest accomplishments to be putting together, betting on, and operating the companies that produced these products. Of course he doesn't k
132.
by darawk 4y ago
Solar City isn't a failure, it's part of Tesla now. Still selling panels, as far as I know. Boring company is also not yet a failure, and has recently built several tunnels. Neuralink is an early stage research company and is stil
133.
by darawk 4y ago
> Let's not forget that Elon Musk's real success has been in marketing. He has obviously been highly successful at marketing. But his "real success" has been in delivering products like useful electric cars and reusab
134.
by darawk 4y ago
Even if we were to accept that as true as stated, which I don't, that doesn't explain Paypal and Tesla. Even if you think this Michael Griffin guy did everything - why did Elon bet on him? Why didn't anyone else? Tons of peop
135.
by darawk 4y ago
How many rich people and fund managers around the world have been throwing money at engineers they thought were smart for the past several decades? How many have succeeded on the scale Elon has? "Throwing money at smart engineers"
136.
by darawk 4y ago
> You don't turn a plane in flight by slamming the yoke as far left as you can. If you know how to fly, then you know how to make a fast turn, but that means knowing how flying works, how the plane responds, and how your current sta
137.
by darawk 4y ago
Why does Elon induce such strangely bad faith takes in people? Of course he understands what Twitter's business model was . He's trying to change it. It's perfectly reasonable to criticize his choice! The direction he's
138.
by darawk 4y ago
1. They are largely the same people. The mere fact that it is theoretically possible that it is two separate groups doesn't mean we should ignore the obvious fact that it is not. 2. It's possible of course, but almost nobody makin
139.
by darawk 4y ago
Agree. You would have to keep up with changes in the space, and accept the possibility that you even if you're right about it strategically, you aren't able to make the appropriate bet, because e.g. the company that succeeds is pr
140.
by darawk 4y ago
This may not be the most comprehensive anti-Calacanis take, but it is probably the most entertaining: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK0NfL2M5L4&t=1296s
141.
by darawk 4y ago
Oh ok. Well what I meant to refer to was wrongful conviction, so I think we mostly agree.
142.
by darawk 4y ago
Yep, I totally agree, as a median forecast. But the future is always uncertain, and it is possible the things we're seeing now will hit some sort of wall, where only large companies will be able to build highly general models and every
143.
by darawk 4y ago
> The challenge with levered long bets on technology is that most foundational technologies undergo waves of innovation, growth, replacement, and bankruptcy. You could've been totally right about social networking by betting on Xang
144.
by darawk 4y ago
You can at least let them out if/when you discover their innocence.
145.
by darawk 4y ago
Isn't #1 the same thing as what I said? Irreversibility is a problem because of the fallibility of the courts.
146.
by darawk 4y ago
Betting on higher rates can be done using interest rate futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates.html These are fairly complicated instruments though so you'll want to do a bit of reading in order
147.
by darawk 4y ago
I have a belief that interest rates will be structurally higher for the entire world over the next decade, higher than the market currently expects. World population is declining in the countries that generate most current GDP, and are like
148.
by darawk 4y ago
The biggest reason I oppose the death penalty, but am less opposed to the other two is that the death penalty is irreversible. I think the death penalty is warranted for some crimes. I feel pretty good about executing someone like Jeffrey D
149.
by darawk 4y ago
No! A 1% increase in revenue in this situation does make you profitable again, but only barely, and only with some possibly invalid assumptions. Say you make $100 in revenue and $1 in profit, and $1 of your $99 in costs is debt service. You
150.
by darawk 4y ago
That isn't quite right. What it implies is that debt service is a significant fraction of their margins, which is a subtle but actually quite significant difference. If a grocery store makes 1% profit on each item it sells, and its deb

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