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> You don't turn a plane in flight by slamming the yoke as far left as you can. If you know how to fly, then you know how to make a fast turn, but that means kn
by darawk 4y ago
> You don't turn a plane in flight by slamming the yoke as far left as you can. If you know how to fly, then you know how to make a fast turn, but that means knowing how flying works, how the plane responds, and how your current state will change in response to your inputs.
I'm sure that's true for planes, but I see no reason to believe it's true for Twitter. He's fired a lot of people, but as far as I can tell most of the teams that were killed weren't mission critical.
> Twitter's business is advertising sales. Musk destroyed a billion dollars in committed pre-sales for 2023, then drove away more advertisers in his attempt to fix the situation, then threatened prospective advertisers with "thermonuclear name-and-shame." He's basically destroyed Twitter's ad sales model without a replacement revenue stream ready to go. $8 for various perqs won't replace a fraction of it even with significant uptake, and this is in the context of adding a billion dollars of annual debt servicing in a company whose revenue was only marginal profitable with the ad sales.
This is true, and an ordinary business owner (particularly of a public company) wouldn't do this because they're afraid of losing money for a quarter. Elon isn't as afraid of that, for obvious reasons. He clearly didn't anticipate the advertisers would do this this quickly, especially before he even made any changes. I'm not sure most people anticipated that.
However, the speed with which he's moving has its advantages as well. He just fired 50% of the staff, which presumably nearly cuts their costs in half, since most of a company like Twitter's costs are salaries. So, he does have some breathing room to lose some revenue.
> On top of that, cutting half the staff with zero notice and ordering a billion dollar reduction in infrastructure costs is a massive amount of organizational chaos added at the same time as he's expecting to iterate quickly and replace a multi-billion dollar revenue stream.
This is true, but thus far that chaos has been completely manageable. Twitter hasn't gone down or had technical problems that I'm aware of. It's still very early, of course, and it might have some soon. But I don't see any evidence that anything he's actually done has caused problems yet.
The teams that got cut entirely all seem to me to be non-mission-critical, in a revenue/uptime sense. The mission critical teams got minor haircuts. It doesn't seem at all to me like he's putting the site at risk of going down in a technical sense.
- fatbird 4y agoAny business operating at Twitter's scale (and I mean this in a business sense, not a technical sense) has far more to do, operationally, than sustain mission-critical activities. The accessibility team is gone; the curation team is gone; the moderation team is gone. This is what drove advertisers away: Musk promised that it wouldn't become a free-for-all hellscape, and then eliminated the organizational controls that were preventing just that. It doesn't matter if they have enough runway to last a quarter without revenue if there's no prospects of bringing back enough revenue to sustain the business, and thus far, there's no hint of any revenue stream sufficient to do so even at Twitter's reduced headcount. And Musk now has to find those new sources of revenue in the middle of organizational chaos when Twitter is least able to execute on any new ideas or iterate effectively. Do you remember when Digg was king of the Internet, and then they released a badly received update and a week later were no longer even a top contender, eventually to be sold for $500,000? This is the market in which Musk is trying to iterate quickly by lighting everything on fire to motivate those who are left. I'm sceptical, to put it mildly.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]