darawk

65 ms·

631.
by darawk 6y ago
Yes they are. They are expectations of interest rates, as I said. Ensemble averages of interest rates are plenty meaningful.
632.
by darawk 6y ago
> That comes from the fact that they don't understand the data they are dealing with (as you said with dimensions). You cannot use the arithmetic mean on interest rates because it does not make sense to add them up. If you just go f
633.
by darawk 6y ago
People have been saying this for years now. Not only has nothing materialized, but the price has barely ever deviated from the 1:1 peg.
634.
by darawk 6y ago
Wikipedia is translated into many languages.
635.
by darawk 6y ago
Because their banks keep shutting down their accounts. They've been playing whack-a-mole with regulators for a long time, and they probably view the NYAG's request as a backdoor way to find out where and how they're banking i
636.
by darawk 6y ago
This article briefly touches the real explanation: > When we listen to prestige, we're often opting for a path of certainty, while foregoing whatever promising thing was just around the corner. But it doesn't quite dwell on it
637.
by darawk 6y ago
Is that narcissism..? Or is that just totally reasonable project and time management? Google has limited resources. Why is it their responsibility to continue staffing projects that people aren't using?
638.
by darawk 6y ago
I'm aware of that. But I don't see what that has to do with my point.
639.
by darawk 6y ago
Of course the distinction only matters if you want the democrats to win. The comment being discussed was made by a Democratic strategist.
640.
by darawk 6y ago
He's not telling them not to exercise their rights. He's telling them not to protest violently . He is encouraging them to protest. He's encouraging those protests to be non-violent.
641.
by darawk 6y ago
> So you're defending the person who is trying to explain why polls got it wrong by using polling data to show that their argument belittling the BLM protests was correct. He's not belittling them. He's supporting them and
642.
by darawk 6y ago
> there is no correlation between when a Dem condemned violent protest and whether they won their election You got a source on that? It's clear that democrats lost ground, despite the Republican party's abject failure to contro
643.
by darawk 6y ago
The problem with war is that if your side doesn't develop its armies, the other side will. Today, that other side is China. For all the faults of the United States, of which there are many, i'd prefer it any day over the Chinese p
644.
by darawk 6y ago
Slate Star Codex has a really great review of it, if you want to get a more in-depth idea of it before actually reading it: https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/01/book-review-origin-of-...
645.
by darawk 6y ago
Imagine being so incompetent that you think the solution to San Francisco's problems is a property transfer tax. Not a property tax. A transfer tax. Transfer taxes disincentivize transfers. What do we need more of in property constra
646.
by darawk 6y ago
What's interesting to me about this is how people focus on the 'collection' aspect. But the collection of digital video of people in public spaces with minor (at best) notification (e.g. "smile you're on camera&quot
647.
by darawk 6y ago
> It's complicated to discuss what "evidence" means for events in the future, because it rapidly heads into deep waters of philosophy, but like the 538 election prediction the best we can do about the future is have a prob
648.
by darawk 6y ago
Credit cycles are orthogonal to the issue of market efficiency. Credit cycles do not prove that the market is irrational, quite the contrary. The problem with credit cycles is that we are not yet good enough at forecasting exactly when they
649.
by darawk 6y ago
> 1) We don't choose to be born and live in this society. It just happens, and we don't get to learn the survival skills necessary to do without it. Therefore, one could say we're stuck in it. Especially considering nowada
650.
by darawk 6y ago
"Ism" is a suffix that implies a philosophy. An ism is a suite of beliefs. Anything that is unconscious is, by definition, not an ism . Rac ism refers to people with a philosophy of racial hierarchy, or ideas about race that e
651.
by darawk 6y ago
Yes, HFT provides liquidity to capital markets, reducing transaction costs of financing. The social benefits here can be a bit hard to see, but they are certainly real. When HFTs make money, it's because they're buying low and sel
652.
by darawk 6y ago
> I am quite curious about the old London coffee house culture. Why don't we have it today? Could we recreate it? Do we have it today in another form? Have they been mythologised? Is it an example of the September effect? I think ar
653.
by darawk 6y ago
> People say this, but I'll note that humans have lived through "crippling poverty" for most of our 2 million year existence. It is only crippling poverty by today's distortion lens (also a shifting baseline). That&#x
654.
by darawk 6y ago
It's really not a priority above money, though. Money isn't some magical evil thing. Money is the unit of account that we use to measure goods and services. Something "costing money" means that it reduces the amount of g
655.
by darawk 6y ago
Sure, but I don't think anyone is pretending that it's all we need. There is a subset of the population who isn't showing up because they forget. For them, text messages are helpful, and for everyone else they're non-har
656.
by darawk 6y ago
I'm sure all these things are factors, but the text messages reduced rates of failure to appear, so...clearly ignorance and apathy are part of the equation.
657.
by darawk 6y ago
They aren't letting anyone withdraw their crypto.
658.
by darawk 6y ago
Which variables are being omitted? Certainly there are other variables relevant to a quality life than money. But the rules apply to any utility function you might come up with. You want to maximize risk-adjusted return.
659.
by darawk 6y ago
Yes. Disability numbers are shockingly high. It's an issue that is really not talked about enough.
660.
by darawk 6y ago
What are the legitimate use cases for privacy from the authorities in other domains? What are the legitimate use cases for being allowed to speak to other humans without your voice being recorded in case the authorities want to know what yo

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