Credit cycles are orthogonal to the issue of market efficiency. Credit cycles do not prove that the market is irrational, quite the contrary. The problem with c

Credit cycles are orthogonal to the issue of market efficiency. Credit cycles do not prove that the market is irrational, quite the contrary. The problem with credit cycles is that we are not yet good enough at forecasting exactly when they will end, which is why the market rewards people like Dalio who do the research to try to work that out, but even they are often wrong.