darawk

71 ms·

661.
by darawk 6y ago
There is no optimal ratio per se. You just divide gain by risk and maximize that quantity. This is a scale invariant function, at least, with respect to its maximum.
662.
by darawk 6y ago
This is a great post, and i'm a huge fan of Glen Weyl, but Glen Weyl is the biggest purveyor of illegible-to-nontechnical-people technocratic ideas i've ever seen. I think his ideas are great and interesting, but I don't real
663.
by darawk 6y ago
I think this is exactly right. Being successful in the top 0.1% is not actually rational. Even if you're brilliant, your chance of succeeding at that level is low. A truly rational person seeks out the best risk-adjusted return , not
664.
by darawk 6y ago
You believe that people like cancer?
665.
by darawk 6y ago
People like them. They wouldn't survive if they didn't.
666.
by darawk 6y ago
When it is actually 0%, yes. But it is currently not 0%.
667.
by darawk 6y ago
> So you agree that creating reserves is not necessarily inflationary. Not necessarily , no. But in practice they create inflationary pressure. > Also, a bank is not limited by reserves to lend. In fact, in practice, banks first lend
668.
by darawk 6y ago
Of course the existence of reserves doesn't force a bank to lend. It increases their capacity to lend, which, assuming there is sufficient demand for credit, increases the money supply.
669.
by darawk 6y ago
Sure, there are limits. But fundamentally, holding all else constant, increasing bank reserves decreases the cost of lending, which increases the quantity of lending, which increases the money supply.
670.
by darawk 6y ago
Creating bank reserves absolutely creates money. Bank reserves are the fulcrum around which bank leverage ratios operate. Yes, they can margin treasuries to borrow reserves from other banks, and in that sense, they are fungible. But the tot
671.
by darawk 6y ago
Asset prices are being inflated by the low risk-free rate. That's why you see asset prices rising while CPI remains flat.
672.
by darawk 6y ago
They mention it, but a big factor driving this is almost certainly obesity. I'd really like to see this done with proper controls for obesity, age demographics, smoking, etc. I think there'd be interesting stuff to learn from that
673.
by darawk 6y ago
This is really the correct measure. Power to GDP ratio.
674.
by darawk 6y ago
I'd also guess that when a society is just establishing itself (i.e. in the process of moving from 3rd -> 1st world status, to put it crudely), they probably have a comparatively low number of lawyers to engineers/scientists. T
675.
by darawk 6y ago
> There is no StackOverflow for trading, or betting. Nobody gives away their edge for free, although they may give away their trades. This isn't trading, though. It's forecasting. You could make that argument about the sub-cate
676.
by darawk 6y ago
Yes, but that's why this forecasting system will not be weighted by the average. It will be weighted by the historical accuracy of the forecaster.
677.
by darawk 6y ago
> Is venture capital or private equity really uncorrelated to the general stock market? Somewhat, yes. It's not that it's completely uncorrelated, but it is less correlated than other public companies tend to be. > It is als
678.
by darawk 6y ago
> I'm not convinced. If there's no direct profit, I can't imagine talented people are going to waste that much time on it. Wikipedia, reddit, HN, and stackoverflow would beg to differ. Reputation drives people to expend in
679.
by darawk 6y ago
Points will work fine. The reason money works is partly the SKITG effect, but not entirely. In an iterated prediction market game, eventually reputation will accrue to those that make accurate forecasts. Much in the same way that money accr
680.
by darawk 6y ago
> How big is diversified enough? Classical portfolio theory says that in public equities, reasonable diversification effects can be expected when one combines 20 to 30 stocks, while more detailed recent studies set this number at 40 to 7
681.
by darawk 6y ago
Social cooling? Does anyone actually think that the problem in our society right now is social cooling ? It seems like very much the opposite to me. There is no chilling effect. It's exactly the reverse.
682.
by darawk 6y ago
My point is that your criticism if of the types of contracts being signed. Not the concepts themselves.
683.
by darawk 6y ago
How are we going to eliminate the human bias of judges?
684.
by darawk 6y ago
For any one instance? You can't. But in aggregate, we do it all the time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kullback%E2%80%93Leibler_diver...
685.
by darawk 6y ago
> Who is "us"? And does it? > Does the firm writing the software actually allow this? Plenty of software sold to the government comes with contractual stipulations that it may not be reverse-engineered, inspected, or otherwi
686.
by darawk 6y ago
> 1. From a technical point of view, The mere fact of a single model responsible for all decisions is bad. The inherent variance of judges opinions in concrete cases is the best way to fight bias. Bias by definition means less variance.
687.
by darawk 6y ago
But that doesn't matter. The point of Bitcoin is not to provide every single user with perfect decentralization, it's to provide the infrastructure for it so that it can be achieved if its important to you.
688.
by darawk 6y ago
I know a lot of people here object to systems like these, but I think they're really great, at least in principle. It's certainly true that early iterations will have problem of bias, and that's bad. But ultimately having an
689.
by darawk 6y ago
The overwhelming majority of clothing produced is totally unnecessary. The fast fashion industry produces an insane amount of clothing, way beyond what is necessary for utilitarian purposes. I don't doubt that it causes that much CO2 e
690.
by darawk 6y ago
Neither Google nor Microsoft were or are actually choke points. The internet is plenty democratized. People simply choose to use a few big centralized services. They have the ability to use others. A democracy where everyone votes for the s

More ›