cjlars

27 ms·

181.
by cjlars 10y ago
I don't think the specific example matters. Obviously, you couldn't build a skyscraper without machinery or fly through the air in a metal tube. I'll grant that the US middle class is only 2 orders of magnitude above subsiste
182.
by cjlars 10y ago
No. We're (or I, at least, am) debating whether the concept of 'new job' continues to exist.
183.
by cjlars 10y ago
> The day will come when machine productivity dwarfs that of humans by orders of magnitude It already does. Have you tried to build a house without power tools? Strong-form, self perpetuating, Terminator style AI has not even been invent
184.
by cjlars 10y ago
> In 1760, the lowest 65 percent received about 29 percent of total income in Britain; in 1860, their share was down only four percentage points to 25 percent. So the lowest 65 percent were substantially better off, with an increase in a
185.
by cjlars 10y ago
It's all speculation. Increases in productivity (GDP per hour worked) are typically accompanied by rising wages. So you're likely to see job losses in impacted industries accompanied by rising wages in aggregate. It's not obv
186.
by cjlars 10y ago
There's a lot believers in technological unemployment here on HN and one thing I think that viewpoint misses is just how darn resilient humans are to changes in the economy. In the past 150 years, we've seen human manual labor rep
187.
by cjlars 10y ago
I'm not sure what the happiness maximizing number of work hours is, but I'm fairly certain it's larger than zero. Even Moore's Utopia posited a six hour workday.
188.
by cjlars 10y ago
Just did some googling on this. For the most part, there doesn't seem to be much research on inheritance & personality disorders, which is odd because 'does money make us happy' is one of the biggest questions in sociolog
189.
by cjlars 10y ago
I wonder how much selection bias is embedded in this (common) sentiment. It takes a certain type of character flaw to want to flaunt your money. I'd imagine there's a silent majority among wealthy heirs that just never bring it up
190.
by cjlars 10y ago
Serious question: Why do you think that and how did you get there? Real returns 1950-2009 are 7% [1], so my numbers are already rounded down a bit. You might further adjust for, say Shiller 10 year P/E numbers, but how complex do you w
191.
by cjlars 10y ago
Putting aside the author's soak the rich rhetoric, the recommendation, which is basically to develop a sovereign wealth fund and pay UBI from that, has seen success. Norway, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been able to give back to their
192.
by cjlars 10y ago
Inflation isn't deductible, which means that bonds can pay extremely high (real) capital gains rates. If the bond pays 2.5% nominal per year, and inflation is 2% per year, and you pay a 20% capital gains rate, then you make 0.5% in rea
193.
by cjlars 10y ago
It's in line with historical averages, some decades are slightly down or up a lot, but over, say 30 year horizons, public equity delivers reasonably consistent returns. A 6% real return on the S&P 500 is a pretty standard assumptio
194.
by cjlars 10y ago
>In 2004, we had 59% of the Forbes 400 having made their own fortune, as opposed to 41% who inherited it. Quote from your own source...
195.
by cjlars 10y ago
One culprit behind Venezuela's hyperinflation is their multiple exchange rate program. They have 3 official exchange rates levels, with the most favorable two reserved for government prioritized imports, like food and medicine, and the
196.
by cjlars 10y ago
Commonly referenced in Latin as, "hic sunt dracones," or in English "here are dragons," is the tendency of historical cartographers to include mythological beasts and illustrations in uncharted areas of the map. The icon
197.
by cjlars 10y ago
Suicide rates are up, which is perhaps the best measure of the quality of mental health care people are receiving. However, there are at least few plausible explanations not mentioned in the article: 1. We have an older population -- suicid
198.
by cjlars 10y ago
They also seal the caseback with a screw tightened gasket, a mechanism similar to that used on common mason jars. Almost no other watch does that, instead using simple screw down tops. It was a necessary and clever design at the time (1960s
199.
by cjlars 10y ago
The inflection point, if there is one, is likely a decade or more away. Real estate losses will be unique to each area. So you're more likely to see a smattering of "Hurricane Katrina Moments" than a wholesale reversal in the
200.
by cjlars 10y ago
If you look at various financial crises throughout history, you'll see that even amid increasingly clear evidence of problems, the status quo is surprisingly sticky. Things move along as normal, and everything seems fine until suddenly
201.
by cjlars 10y ago
I would add that while it's plausible, it's by no means obvious that Reddit is leaving business value on the table. Imagine that they seek to minimize the bounce-rate on any thread such that they maximize overall time on site for
202.
by cjlars 10y ago
They do fairly comprehensive land value + structure value assessments for property tax in many US states. Basically they collect data on every property like square footage of building, size of plot, age of structure, etc and do a regression
203.
by cjlars 10y ago
They would need a model built on top of the submitted models to weight or select which specific trading signals to act on. A plausible model might be walkforward testing on out of sample data, or as simple as trailing performance in live tr
204.
by cjlars 10y ago
And yet, roughly 40,000 people make the trip to Everest Base Camp each year -- another desolate and inhospitable place with no tangible economy. An economist might say this is done for 'tourism', but I prefer Mallory's famous
205.
by cjlars 10y ago
Remember "chocolate is good for you"? Turns out that: "While research shows that cocoa can have a beneficial effect with regards to maintaining healthy vascular tone and insulin sensitivity, the reverse is true for sugar. Eat
206.
by cjlars 10y ago
Regarding [3], you're disregarding state and local taxes. I have a hard time seeing anything but an upward trend in a chart like this [4], given that spending deficits must ultimately be paid. [4] http://www.justfacts.com&#x
207.
by cjlars 10y ago
Thanks for the links, I wasn't aware that the Wikipedia article was so flashed out on this topic. However, I'm not sure I see any actual evidence to support the power theory. The economist article paints a link between education,
208.
by cjlars 10y ago
Are there any facts to substantiate your assertion about power being the problem? It would seem to me that the power of elites is trending down if anything. The rise of Trump, the Brexit vote, and the rise in taxes as a percent of GDP acros
209.
Universal Basic Income – Poll Results from IGM Economic Experts Panel(igmchicago.org)
42 points by cjlars 10y ago|120 comments
210.
by cjlars 10y ago
At least one study uses household income [1]. The effect isn't adjusted for family size in any way I can see. Do note that the linked study differentiates between 'enjoyment of life' which they estimate starts to plateau arou

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