4 ms·
The inflection point, if there is one, is likely a decade or more away. Real estate losses will be unique to each area. So you're more likely to see a smatterin
by cjlars 10y ago
The inflection point, if there is one, is likely a decade or more away. Real estate losses will be unique to each area. So you're more likely to see a smattering of "Hurricane Katrina Moments" than a wholesale reversal in the financial markets a la 2008. Deep out of the money options on overexposed instruments is a plausible position to take here, especially during the ~6 week hurricane season.
Another thing to note is that it costs money to short -- you are borrowing the shares after all, so you need to pay interest on the loan. This makes a multi-year position shorting select REITs troublesome.
The position I'm taking (roughly) is to hold oceanfront property with excellent sea-level protection. Think cliff-front, not beach-front. A different play? Construction companies specializing in sea level mitigation.
- bzbarsky 10y agoCliff-front property may have its own issues. For example, the cliff parts of Cape Cod are eroding by an average of 3 feet per year according to http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/staffpages/boldale/capecod/quest.html http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/staffpages/boldale/capecod/ques... -- and that link claims that sea level rise would be expected to speed up erosion. Of course if you pick sturdier cliffs you might be better off.