adam

11 ms·

61.
by adam 8y ago
While the title of this article may be a bit misleading as numerous people here have reliably pointed out, I think comments so far are missing the broader point. Cal Newport's focus for awhile now has been on "minimalist" use
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by adam 8y ago
Do you have kids?
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by adam 8y ago
I'm curious if anyone else has stomach issues after eating the Impossible Burger, the Beyond Meat burger, etc.? Something about the protein isolate or who knows what else doesn't sit well with me. I've talked to others anecdo
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by adam 8y ago
You might check out numer.ai, along with their coming data marketplace, Erasure. They've been running for awhile...
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by adam 8y ago
Having been through YC in the second batch in 2006 - their first one in California, and again in 2011, the differences were indeed pretty stark. In 2006, there were 8 startups. We knew each other well and we met with PG at his house a few t
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by adam 8y ago
Actually, prediction markets need some sort of objective, verifiable outcome, so asking "do we need a new CEO" wouldn't be appropriate. Instead the company could ask questions related to the performance metrics the CEO has ag
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by adam 8y ago
In the public context, people often cite the consensus predictions to get a better understanding of what people _think_ will happen vs. what they _want_ to happen. In a corporate context, prediction markets are often used internally amongst
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by adam 8y ago
This should be a big deal for combatting CO2 emissions as well. I believe it was never refuted after it came out a few years ago that ~15 of these ships emit the same CO2 as all cars in the world? https://inews.co.uk/news&#x
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Online Bettors Can Sniff Out Weak Psychology Studies(theatlantic.com)
1 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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by adam 8y ago
In theory you're right - but this isn't how it works in practice. The people who earn the most money are the best traders, not necessarily the people with the "most information and best models." The overall forecasts ten
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by adam 8y ago
Just wrote a blog post about Augur and its future challenges: https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/thoughts-on-augur I know - just another armchair hack, but I've been running a company that builds/runs predic
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Can you crowdfund your way to a better culture at your company?(cultivatelabs.com)
4 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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What do 90-something's regret most?(medium.com)
1 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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Midlife crisis? It's a myth(theguardian.com)
3 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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by adam 8y ago
Perhaps it's already there, but I wonder if shortcuts will be able to be shared or there will be a library for them. So someone can pre-define all sorts of stuff, then I as a "basic" user can just add the shortcut vs. having
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by adam 8y ago
This is a great summary. I think his guideposts are helpful for most decision support initiatives, whether you're using data to try and support decisions, or reaching out to humans. We run prediction markets inside companies and find t
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by adam 8y ago
In contrast, a fully human approach using a prediction market: https://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/challenges/167-2018...
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The Old Man and the Gun (2003)(newyorker.com)
3 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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My Son, the Prince of Fashion (2016)(gq.com)
2 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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Driven to Despair: The Tragic End to a Black Car Driver's Campaign Against Uber(nymag.com)
2 points by adam 8y ago|0 comments
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by adam 8y ago
YOu're right, this is indeed a challenge. But the benefit is often they're not getting screwed by bad planning, over promising, etc. Afterall, those are the kinds of decisions that really burn people out. Instead, they finally get
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by adam 8y ago
I understand - I usually don't like to have to talk to people either. Since most of our projects are with large companies, we haven't shared pricing, as each one tends to be pretty different. But we've also worked with smalle
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And for His Next Act, Ev Williams Will Fix the Internet(nytimes.com)
53 points by adam 8y ago|46 comments
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by adam 8y ago
The U.S. Intelligence Community does quite a bit of research in this space that we're involved in, we're also working with pharma, energy, large manufacturing. The profile (in the commercial space) tends to be very capital intensi
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by adam 8y ago
We have a prediction market platform, but we also end up consulting most of the time as part of the implementation. As you might imagine, prediction markets can be quite disruptive. They tend to make information radically more transparent a
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by adam 8y ago
Having now run prediction markets inside companies for over 10 years, we can definitely backup the findings in the paper - especially the revelations of bias among different types of employees. We usually ask people to participate anonymous
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by adam 8y ago
Thanks for commenting about this - I don't understand why there isn't more commentary about Ford deciding to drop sedans. It seems like someone is way way behind on the forecasting game. Just as oil prices are going back up and th
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by adam 8y ago
Cultivate Labs | Senior Rails Developer | Chicago, IL | Onsite | Full-Time Cultivate Labs is a Chicago-based company that helps large organizations crowdsource the wisdom of their employees to better predict future events, whether that’s a
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by adam 8y ago
If you prefer your Jaron Lanier in audio form, this was a very similar interview he did for Ezra Klein's podcast: https://www.vox.com/2018/1/16/16897738/jaron-lanier-intervie...
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by adam 9y ago
I suspect this will smooth out as they collect more data about what's going empty, etc. If as the article states there was millions in inventory sitting in the stock rooms, each store probably wasn't doing very good inventory mana

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