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Having now run prediction markets inside companies for over 10 years, we can definitely backup the findings in the paper - especially the revelations of bias am

by adam 8y ago

Having now run prediction markets inside companies for over 10 years, we can definitely backup the findings in the paper - especially the revelations of bias among different types of employees. We usually ask people to participate anonymously, and it's often the only outlet people have to express what they truly think. It's always a surreal experience to sit in a meeting with people and their bosses and hear "we're on track, no issues, the new product launch is going to be great, we're going to sell a ton, etc. etc." and then have a private/informal meeting with the same people who will confide that the project/product/strategy is completely fucked and everyone thinks that. :)

trishume 8y ago
Can you share any of the companies you've run prediction markets for? I'm curious.
- adam 8y ago
  The U.S. Intelligence Community does quite a bit of research in this space that we're involved in, we're also working with pharma, energy, large manufacturing. The profile (in the commercial space) tends to be very capital intensive orgs/projects, where if you can use a prediction market as an "early warning system" by surfacing what people actually know, you can potentially save them a lot of heartache (and money and pissed off/laid off employees, etc.)
prepend 8y ago
Is this a consulting service? Or do you offer software? If you don’t mind me asking, what’s the average project size using a prediction market.
- anitil 8y ago
  GP has http://cultivatelabs.com http://cultivatelabs.com in their bio, they're working directly in this space. Very interesting stuff. (And, looking at previous comments they're hiring)
- adam 8y ago
  We have a prediction market platform, but we also end up consulting most of the time as part of the implementation. As you might imagine, prediction markets can be quite disruptive. They tend to make information radically more transparent and we learned the hard way that in order to not just churn through a bunch of companies, we needed to help companies deal with 1) what key questions to ask, and 2) what are they going to do with the new signals they have? How will they incorporate them in to their decision making processes and how will they acknowledge that the "crowd" has been heard? The average project size we work with tends to be in the low hundreds of participants, with the biggest one being in the mid-thousands.
  - prepend 8y ago
    Thanks, this is helpful. I read through your site and have a hard time knowing what prices would be for an install or an engagement. I know it’s not clear to have a price sheet for consulting, but is there a way for a potential client to learn about high level prices? Or they have to just enter the sales cycle. I want to to figure out if this would be a fit for one of my projects, but I don’t want to get a demo, talk to people, etc just to find out it’s an incompatible price.
    - adam 8y ago
      I understand - I usually don't like to have to talk to people either. Since most of our projects are with large companies, we haven't shared pricing, as each one tends to be pretty different. But we've also worked with smaller teams who just want access to the software, and that's fine too. We start at 399/month for those types of projects and that's for unlimited everything for up to 100 people. You might consider playing with TinyCast which is our free, single question prediction market and see if you like it and people participate. If you/they do, that would be a good indication they'd likely do a full blown prediction market. https://tinycast.cultivatelabs.com https://tinycast.cultivatelabs.com
tysonzni 8y ago
How do you deal with the cultural challenge of convincing people there's value and selfish benefits to having more transparency? I've noticed that in large organizations certain information are held by a small number of people who may be reluctant to share them for political reasons. Another challenge with internal prediction markets is the possibility that knowing the "probability" of an project-related outcome reduces morale and hence creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that further reduces the chance of success. Appreciate your insights.
- JohannesH 8y ago
  You might be right about the self-fulfilling prophecy. But this effect might already be in effect, as people might already have a gut feeling, while nobody cares (or knows) about it.
  - Jach 8y ago
    A trivial instance of this would be release planning in software. After our initial delivery plan my team gives a confidence measure, one release it was quite low, which was an important signal since we could discuss why that was and what we could cut to increase the confidence. Without that signal, we'd have overcommitted, and suspecting as much but without common knowledge might have even delivered less.
  - tysonzni 8y ago
    You're right. But I think the single-value, hyper-transparent nature of prediction market can create an institutional feedback loop that's more powerful than what arises from the diverse, individually held opinions that others don't know about.
- adam 8y ago
  YOu're right, this is indeed a challenge. But the benefit is often they're not getting screwed by bad planning, over promising, etc. Afterall, those are the kinds of decisions that really burn people out. Instead, they finally get a chance to have a say. Also, I'd argue all the information you're talking about that is potentially decreasing morale is already out there, it's just not being officially recognized/aggregated. At least this way, it's surfaced, and management understands what the perception is out there and can address it head on. Bottom line, these aren't for everyone. One of the first questions I ask when someone expresses interest is what their culture is like and how humble their leadership is. If they're ready for it, prediction market can be transformative. But if they're not, they can fail - and we've surely had plenty of those projects too!

by adam 8y ago

trishume 8y ago

Can you share any of the companies you've run prediction markets for? I'm curious.

adam 8y ago
The U.S. Intelligence Community does quite a bit of research in this space that we're involved in, we're also working with pharma, energy, large manufacturing. The profile (in the commercial space) tends to be very capital intensive orgs/projects, where if you can use a prediction market as an "early warning system" by surfacing what people actually know, you can potentially save them a lot of heartache (and money and pissed off/laid off employees, etc.)

prepend 8y ago

Is this a consulting service? Or do you offer software? If you don’t mind me asking, what’s the average project size using a prediction market.

anitil 8y ago
GP has http://cultivatelabs.com http://cultivatelabs.com in their bio, they're working directly in this space. Very interesting stuff. (And, looking at previous comments they're hiring)
adam 8y ago
We have a prediction market platform, but we also end up consulting most of the time as part of the implementation. As you might imagine, prediction markets can be quite disruptive. They tend to make information radically more transparent and we learned the hard way that in order to not just churn through a bunch of companies, we needed to help companies deal with 1) what key questions to ask, and 2) what are they going to do with the new signals they have? How will they incorporate them in to their decision making processes and how will they acknowledge that the "crowd" has been heard? The average project size we work with tends to be in the low hundreds of participants, with the biggest one being in the mid-thousands.
- prepend 8y ago
  Thanks, this is helpful. I read through your site and have a hard time knowing what prices would be for an install or an engagement. I know it’s not clear to have a price sheet for consulting, but is there a way for a potential client to learn about high level prices? Or they have to just enter the sales cycle. I want to to figure out if this would be a fit for one of my projects, but I don’t want to get a demo, talk to people, etc just to find out it’s an incompatible price.
  - adam 8y ago
    I understand - I usually don't like to have to talk to people either. Since most of our projects are with large companies, we haven't shared pricing, as each one tends to be pretty different. But we've also worked with smaller teams who just want access to the software, and that's fine too. We start at 399/month for those types of projects and that's for unlimited everything for up to 100 people. You might consider playing with TinyCast which is our free, single question prediction market and see if you like it and people participate. If you/they do, that would be a good indication they'd likely do a full blown prediction market. https://tinycast.cultivatelabs.com https://tinycast.cultivatelabs.com

tysonzni 8y ago

How do you deal with the cultural challenge of convincing people there's value and selfish benefits to having more transparency? I've noticed that in large organizations certain information are held by a small number of people who may be reluctant to share them for political reasons. Another challenge with internal prediction markets is the possibility that knowing the "probability" of an project-related outcome reduces morale and hence creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that further reduces the chance of success. Appreciate your insights.

JohannesH 8y ago
You might be right about the self-fulfilling prophecy. But this effect might already be in effect, as people might already have a gut feeling, while nobody cares (or knows) about it.
- Jach 8y ago
  A trivial instance of this would be release planning in software. After our initial delivery plan my team gives a confidence measure, one release it was quite low, which was an important signal since we could discuss why that was and what we could cut to increase the confidence. Without that signal, we'd have overcommitted, and suspecting as much but without common knowledge might have even delivered less.
- tysonzni 8y ago
  You're right. But I think the single-value, hyper-transparent nature of prediction market can create an institutional feedback loop that's more powerful than what arises from the diverse, individually held opinions that others don't know about.
adam 8y ago
YOu're right, this is indeed a challenge. But the benefit is often they're not getting screwed by bad planning, over promising, etc. Afterall, those are the kinds of decisions that really burn people out. Instead, they finally get a chance to have a say. Also, I'd argue all the information you're talking about that is potentially decreasing morale is already out there, it's just not being officially recognized/aggregated. At least this way, it's surfaced, and management understands what the perception is out there and can address it head on. Bottom line, these aren't for everyone. One of the first questions I ask when someone expresses interest is what their culture is like and how humble their leadership is. If they're ready for it, prediction market can be transformative. But if they're not, they can fail - and we've surely had plenty of those projects too!