Lewton

23 ms·

241.
by Lewton 6y ago
That's not the IFR since they're not counting asymptomatic cases (based on a quick read) They don't mention IFR anywhere as far as I can see
242.
by Lewton 6y ago
You're comparing the IFR of the corona virus with the CFR of the flu
243.
by Lewton 6y ago
No (hence the question mark), I'm seeing 0.04% pop up everywhere but I haven't found the source for the number. But it seems plausible if the CFR is <0.1% as there are both asymptomatic cases of the flu and people don't al
244.
by Lewton 6y ago
I believe 0.1% is the CFR for the flu, and the IFR is close to 0.04%?
245.
by Lewton 6y ago
If Spain had taken strict lockdown measures before the virus took hold they would not be in the mess that they are in now. Compare Denmark to Sweden and it gets pretty obvious that early lockdowns have an effect
246.
by Lewton 6y ago
Plenty of warm areas are being hit hard, but a lot of warm countries have "reporting issues" (look at the excess deaths in Jakarta for an example). Heat might lower R0 by some amount but it's still way above 1 without measure
247.
by Lewton 6y ago
The IFR of the flu is 0.04% Non-biased random sampling anti-body studies reliably point to an IFR of around 0.5% 3x is just wishful thinking at this point
248.
by Lewton 6y ago
Are you looking at the correct demographics? We’re seeing a pretty big drop in all cause mortality outside risk groups due to lockdowns
249.
by Lewton 6y ago
Anything above a factor 20x is wishful thinking. Limiting it to the studies that have been done in europe show 10-20x which is much more realistic
250.
by Lewton 6y ago
Interestingly enough, you're wrong. Denmark has closed it's border But Danes can go to Sweden, because Swedens border are open. And while Denmarks borders are closed, danes are always allowed to return home. Quite a few irresponsi
251.
by Lewton 6y ago
Deal :) I suggest Give Directly https://www.givewell.org/charities/give-directly If you prefer something else, I suggest anything on https://www.givewell.org list of charities
252.
by Lewton 6y ago
> 500k excluding the US seems pretty good for me. That means you expect 5x more deaths than up to now, despite deaths peaking in all the hardest hit countries that aren't the US... Yes. You seem to be under the impression that the v
253.
by Lewton 6y ago
> If it was going to spread further it would have already. I gotta say, your capability for wishful thinking is impressive. Look at Singapore the past week. They had everything under control for months. Or what. Singapore's climate
254.
by Lewton 6y ago
> Results indicate that over 50% of infected are asymptomatic. Please stop spreading this meme. Pre-symptomatic, not asymptomatic https://www.icelandreview.com/sci-tech/is-icelands-coronavir...
255.
by Lewton 6y ago
> Swine flu killed ~500k, it doesn't look like this'll get there. ... Are you willing to put money on this? It'll be the easiest money I'll ever make The US is already at 3x more deaths from Covid-19 than the most pes
256.
by Lewton 6y ago
Linux Mint
257.
by Lewton 6y ago
I only need a working VR videoplayer and a couple of experiences for demoing to people. Which 6 months ago was what was available and now nothing works, not even valves own VR tutorial
258.
by Lewton 6y ago
Proton worked decently for VR last I tried 6 months ago. But I started it up again recently and everything is broken now, partially due to steam updates and partially due to updates to Unity. The entire reason I moved to Linux was because I
259.
by Lewton 6y ago
60% asymptomatic at the time of testing Most of them will eventually begin showing symptoms
260.
by Lewton 6y ago
Iceland did random sampling and while it showed 50% asymptomatic at the time of testing, only 15% ended up not showing symptoms at all
261.
by Lewton 7y ago
I think it's because it makes them able to react much quicker if hit by a second infection wave
262.
by Lewton 7y ago
So? That doesn’t change that their hospitals are being completely ddos’ed
263.
by Lewton 7y ago
> Here's the only stat I actually, truly give a shit about: my province has 4 million people in it and 50 deaths. What would you expect this to look like without a lockdown
264.
by Lewton 7y ago
No amount of lowering the IFR will change what has happened and is happening in New York, Italy and Spain
265.
by Lewton 7y ago
Netherlands is currently at 30000 cases with 3000 dead, cfr of 10%. 20x infection would put the IFR at 0.5% which is well in line with what is expected
266.
by Lewton 7y ago
bingo It seems like most everyone keep glossing over the fact that if you have a disease that doubles its infection count every x days, and it takes around x days to show symptoms you would always expect about 50% of infected to be asymptom
267.
by Lewton 7y ago
Similar cherry-picking leads to: Last wednesday 96 deaths happened, which was around 15% of total deaths at the time. And this wednesday 170 is reported, which is around 15% of total deaths now. That's exponential growth You are right
268.
by Lewton 7y ago
He's clearly talking about what would happen without intervention. We do not live in that world
269.
by Lewton 7y ago
15% of deaths happened in the past 24 hours, that's not a flattening of the curve Maybe you're being fooled by the lack of reported deaths in the weekends in Sweden? It does mess up the curve quite a bit. But it's been like t
270.
by Lewton 7y ago
Look at the trend... 15% of their deaths happened in the past 24 hours

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