19 ms·

bingo It seems like most everyone keep glossing over the fact that if you have a disease that doubles its infection count every x days, and it takes around x d

by Lewton 7y ago

bingo It seems like most everyone keep glossing over the fact that if you have a disease that doubles its infection count every x days, and it takes around x days to show symptoms you would always expect about 50% of infected to be asymptomatic at the time of testing

ImaCake 7y ago
I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.
- bhouston 7y ago
  We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.
  - azinman2 7y ago
    Some percent of confirmed recovered cases never develop antibodies it seems.
    - mabbo 7y ago
      Then how did they recover? If your body has no antibodies to the virus then why would the virus ever stop spreading within you?
      - frank2 7y ago
        Antibodies are produced by the humoral arm of the immune system, but there is another arm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell-mediated_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell-mediated_immunity Basically this other arm tells infected cells to kill themselves, and they comply.
      - aaron_m04 7y ago
        The cells that generate the antibodies may die later.
      - danieltillett 7y ago
        This is an artefact of the current antibody tests, which mostly only sample a response to a single antigen. Which viral proteins you mount a response against will vary from individual to individual. To really know if you have no antibody response you need to test for a response to multiple antigens.
      - azinman2 7y ago
        https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclear-whether-recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-immune-to-second-infection.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclea...
  - standardUser 7y ago
    Germany and Finland are doing this. Here are some results already completed in a German town showing that 14% of people tested positive for antibodies... https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/?fbclid=IwAR1BbxCVkI6nEpTYdra7IwAN-IYIUKgPkAsXGBDaj8jnuf1DOv84QptYXU8 https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-1...
    - three_seagrass 7y ago
      That study did their research in a town that was already infected, meaning that our understanding of the infection rate for Covid-19 is probably lower than reality.
      - thombat 7y ago
        Precisely - as an early outbreak centre that town is referred to as "Germany's Wuhan", and is expected to have among the highest proportion of infected inhabitants. So actually the 15% figure came as a disappointment and something of a surprise.
        standardUser 7y ago
        A disappointment? NYC has among the highest testing rates in the world and has only found about 1.5% of people infected. If there's another 14% in NYC that have been infected without needing medical attention, that is fantastic news.
        thombat 7y ago
        The German town of Gangelt is the study case that the OP was referring to, which thanks to a small population and a well-attended carnival party with many infected attendees and a legion of subsequent linked cases had acquired the reputation that everyone must have been exposed, i.e. a place that would have established something like herd immunity. So to discover that only one in seven inhabitants had detectable antibodies was indeed dismaying: either the infection pattern or the immune response wasn't as expected. Or both.
  - henrikschroder 7y ago
    > or Sweden Please note that the reporting on Sweden from outside Sweden is completely bananas. The idea of how Sweden is handling the pandemic, alongside cherry-picked data, is being used to argue for whatever lockdown theory people seem to have. The facts though are that Sweden is not an outlier in any way shape or form. Compared to other European countries, Sweden is boringly in the middle of the pack, and showing the same trajectories as every other country. Swedes are working from home, isolating themselves, going out less, traveling less, staying home from school, closing non-essential businesses, and washing their hands just like everyone else.
    - aaron_m04 7y ago
      OK that's good to know. Is their government handling it any differently than other countries? Or has it in the past?
      - anewguy9000 7y ago
        absolutley: public schools remain open for example. rather than enforce mandatory rules the government is encouraging personal responsibility. wfh is at 50% as is transit usage. source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronav...
        henrikschroder 7y ago
        > public schools remain open for example. Universities and high schools have been closed for almost a month now, that's pretty much the same timeline as most other countries. Elementary schools are not closed, but they're very empty, most kids are staying home. The reasoning behind this is that elementary schools function as babysitters, and this frees up adults in essential occupations so that they can go to work normally, instead of having to stay at home with their kids. There's also starting to appear evidence that kids might not be a serious disease vector, contrary to pretty much everyone's gut feeling. And this is what I mean by the reporting being bananas. It's very easy to look at the fact that "schools are open" and assume it's business as usual in Sweden. It absolutely isn't. It's also pretty funny that you linked an article from The Guardian, which breathlessly exclaims that Sweden has a death rate that's twice that of Denmark. Yeah, ok, but the death rate in the UK is twice that of Sweden. Pot meet kettle. If Sweden is doing twice as good as the UK, who the fuck are people in the UK to criticize Sweden's actions? It's as if a Swedish newspaper would criticize Denmark for having twice the death rate of Finland. It's absurd. The reporting is bananas. It's agenda-driven, not fact-driven.
  - couchand 7y ago
    Is there really widespread antigen testing in NYC? I certainly have not heard about it here in Brooklyn.
    - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
      Only recovered plasma donation volunteers are being tested.
      - couchand 7y ago
        Hmm, New York Blood Center says, "Please be aware that we do NOT test for COVID-19. You should contact your health care provider if you want to be tested." [0] Where else should I be looking? [0]: https://www.nybc.org/donate-blood/covid-19-and-blood-donation-copy/ https://www.nybc.org/donate-blood/covid-19-and-blood-donatio...
        kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
        They aren't testing random people. I know someone who has recovered and is waiting on test results before he is allowed to donate.
  - misun78 7y ago
    Doesn't even have to be widespread, a randomized set of say 1,000 New Yorkers tested for antibodies across age and demographics could give us invaluable insights into the infection rate of this virus. It's infuriating seeing politicians pass the buck by pointing to a world of widespread testing, which we know will not happen anytime soon.
- TylerE 7y ago
  How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.
  - dboreham 7y ago
    By lack of a pile of bodies.
    - grandmczeb 7y ago
      If there’s a lot of uncounted asymptotic cases the IFR is correspondingly lower.
      - vkou 7y ago
        Only 25% of the positive-cases on the Diamond princess turned out to be asymptomatic after 4 weeks. The much-higher, 50% numbers that were being thrown around were obviously overestimated - precisely because it takes a week or two or three for some people to start showing symptoms. As such, it's incredibly unlikely that the # of real cases is some large multiplier of the number of confirmed cases in any areas that are regularly testing people with flu-like symptoms.
        grandmczeb 7y ago
        > Only 25% of the positive-cases on the Diamond princess turned out to be asymptomatic after 4 weeks. Are you referring to [1]? As far as I know that's the only follow up, but your summary doesn't match their results. [1] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...
        easytiger 7y ago
        > As such, it's incredibly unlikely that the # of real cases is some large multiplier of the number of confirmed cases in any areas that are regularly testing people with flu-like symptoms. For example?
- dnautics 7y ago
  Let's be realistic though. Given the way that this virus promiscuously spreads, if a relatively large portion of individuals weren't generally asymptomatic, by now we would have approximately zero healthcare workers.
  - ImaCake 7y ago
    I think you underestimate how effective proper sterile technique is. If all the equipment is available, and the staff appropiately trained, there should be a very small chance of becoming infected. In some countries this is not the case, but some places have demonstrated that they can keep their frontline workers from getting infected.
    - dnautics 7y ago
      I think you overestimate the knowledge we had about covid-19, especially in the early days. Why are there even any doctors standing at all in Wuhan?
beerandt 7y ago
Only if testing can detect the infection at t=0.

by Lewton 7y ago

ImaCake 7y ago

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

bhouston 7y ago
We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.
- azinman2 7y ago
  Some percent of confirmed recovered cases never develop antibodies it seems.
  - mabbo 7y ago
    Then how did they recover? If your body has no antibodies to the virus then why would the virus ever stop spreading within you?
    - frank2 7y ago
      Antibodies are produced by the humoral arm of the immune system, but there is another arm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell-mediated_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell-mediated_immunity Basically this other arm tells infected cells to kill themselves, and they comply.
    - aaron_m04 7y ago
      The cells that generate the antibodies may die later.
    - danieltillett 7y ago
      This is an artefact of the current antibody tests, which mostly only sample a response to a single antigen. Which viral proteins you mount a response against will vary from individual to individual. To really know if you have no antibody response you need to test for a response to multiple antigens.
    - azinman2 7y ago
      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclear-whether-recovered-coronavirus-patients-are-immune-to-second-infection.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/who-officials-say-its-unclea...
- standardUser 7y ago
  Germany and Finland are doing this. Here are some results already completed in a German town showing that 14% of people tested positive for antibodies... https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-15-percent-infection-rate/?fbclid=IwAR1BbxCVkI6nEpTYdra7IwAN-IYIUKgPkAsXGBDaj8jnuf1DOv84QptYXU8 https://spectator.us/covid-antibody-test-german-town-shows-1...
  - three_seagrass 7y ago
    That study did their research in a town that was already infected, meaning that our understanding of the infection rate for Covid-19 is probably lower than reality.
    - thombat 7y ago
      Precisely - as an early outbreak centre that town is referred to as "Germany's Wuhan", and is expected to have among the highest proportion of infected inhabitants. So actually the 15% figure came as a disappointment and something of a surprise.
      - standardUser 7y ago
        A disappointment? NYC has among the highest testing rates in the world and has only found about 1.5% of people infected. If there's another 14% in NYC that have been infected without needing medical attention, that is fantastic news.
        thombat 7y ago
        The German town of Gangelt is the study case that the OP was referring to, which thanks to a small population and a well-attended carnival party with many infected attendees and a legion of subsequent linked cases had acquired the reputation that everyone must have been exposed, i.e. a place that would have established something like herd immunity. So to discover that only one in seven inhabitants had detectable antibodies was indeed dismaying: either the infection pattern or the immune response wasn't as expected. Or both.
- henrikschroder 7y ago
  > or Sweden Please note that the reporting on Sweden from outside Sweden is completely bananas. The idea of how Sweden is handling the pandemic, alongside cherry-picked data, is being used to argue for whatever lockdown theory people seem to have. The facts though are that Sweden is not an outlier in any way shape or form. Compared to other European countries, Sweden is boringly in the middle of the pack, and showing the same trajectories as every other country. Swedes are working from home, isolating themselves, going out less, traveling less, staying home from school, closing non-essential businesses, and washing their hands just like everyone else.
  - aaron_m04 7y ago
    OK that's good to know. Is their government handling it any differently than other countries? Or has it in the past?
    - anewguy9000 7y ago
      absolutley: public schools remain open for example. rather than enforce mandatory rules the government is encouraging personal responsibility. wfh is at 50% as is transit usage. source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronav...
      - henrikschroder 7y ago
        > public schools remain open for example. Universities and high schools have been closed for almost a month now, that's pretty much the same timeline as most other countries. Elementary schools are not closed, but they're very empty, most kids are staying home. The reasoning behind this is that elementary schools function as babysitters, and this frees up adults in essential occupations so that they can go to work normally, instead of having to stay at home with their kids. There's also starting to appear evidence that kids might not be a serious disease vector, contrary to pretty much everyone's gut feeling. And this is what I mean by the reporting being bananas. It's very easy to look at the fact that "schools are open" and assume it's business as usual in Sweden. It absolutely isn't. It's also pretty funny that you linked an article from The Guardian, which breathlessly exclaims that Sweden has a death rate that's twice that of Denmark. Yeah, ok, but the death rate in the UK is twice that of Sweden. Pot meet kettle. If Sweden is doing twice as good as the UK, who the fuck are people in the UK to criticize Sweden's actions? It's as if a Swedish newspaper would criticize Denmark for having twice the death rate of Finland. It's absurd. The reporting is bananas. It's agenda-driven, not fact-driven.
- couchand 7y ago
  Is there really widespread antigen testing in NYC? I certainly have not heard about it here in Brooklyn.
  - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
    Only recovered plasma donation volunteers are being tested.
    - couchand 7y ago
      Hmm, New York Blood Center says, "Please be aware that we do NOT test for COVID-19. You should contact your health care provider if you want to be tested." [0] Where else should I be looking? [0]: https://www.nybc.org/donate-blood/covid-19-and-blood-donation-copy/ https://www.nybc.org/donate-blood/covid-19-and-blood-donatio...
      - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
        They aren't testing random people. I know someone who has recovered and is waiting on test results before he is allowed to donate.
- misun78 7y ago
  Doesn't even have to be widespread, a randomized set of say 1,000 New Yorkers tested for antibodies across age and demographics could give us invaluable insights into the infection rate of this virus. It's infuriating seeing politicians pass the buck by pointing to a world of widespread testing, which we know will not happen anytime soon.
TylerE 7y ago
How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.
- dboreham 7y ago
  By lack of a pile of bodies.
  - grandmczeb 7y ago
    If there’s a lot of uncounted asymptotic cases the IFR is correspondingly lower.
    - vkou 7y ago
      Only 25% of the positive-cases on the Diamond princess turned out to be asymptomatic after 4 weeks. The much-higher, 50% numbers that were being thrown around were obviously overestimated - precisely because it takes a week or two or three for some people to start showing symptoms. As such, it's incredibly unlikely that the # of real cases is some large multiplier of the number of confirmed cases in any areas that are regularly testing people with flu-like symptoms.
      - grandmczeb 7y ago
        > Only 25% of the positive-cases on the Diamond princess turned out to be asymptomatic after 4 weeks. Are you referring to [1]? As far as I know that's the only follow up, but your summary doesn't match their results. [1] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E...
      - easytiger 7y ago
        > As such, it's incredibly unlikely that the # of real cases is some large multiplier of the number of confirmed cases in any areas that are regularly testing people with flu-like symptoms. For example?
dnautics 7y ago
Let's be realistic though. Given the way that this virus promiscuously spreads, if a relatively large portion of individuals weren't generally asymptomatic, by now we would have approximately zero healthcare workers.
- ImaCake 7y ago
  I think you underestimate how effective proper sterile technique is. If all the equipment is available, and the staff appropiately trained, there should be a very small chance of becoming infected. In some countries this is not the case, but some places have demonstrated that they can keep their frontline workers from getting infected.
  - dnautics 7y ago
    I think you overestimate the knowledge we had about covid-19, especially in the early days. Why are there even any doctors standing at all in Wuhan?

beerandt 7y ago

Only if testing can detect the infection at t=0.