6 ms·

> If it was going to spread further it would have already. I gotta say, your capability for wishful thinking is impressive. Look at Singapore the past week. T

by Lewton 6y ago

> If it was going to spread further it would have already. I gotta say, your capability for wishful thinking is impressive. Look at Singapore the past week. They had everything under control for months. Or what. Singapore's climate is too cold? Again, willing to put your money where you mouth is? Let's say 500k deaths by the end of the year excluding the US

Mikeb85 6y ago
Singapore has 11 deaths total from Covid... In a city state of 5 million. Also, warm climate doesn't mean there's no air conditioned buildings or absolutely no spread, but the stats do suggest it makes spread more difficult. 500k excluding the US seems pretty good for me. That means you expect 5x more deaths than up to now, despite deaths peaking in all the hardest hit countries that aren't the US...
- Lewton 6y ago
  > 500k excluding the US seems pretty good for me. That means you expect 5x more deaths than up to now, despite deaths peaking in all the hardest hit countries that aren't the US... Yes. You seem to be under the impression that the virus has saturated the world and has stopped spreading for some, to me, completely unfathomable reason So. What'll you say.. $50? $100? $1000? Money goes to charity, or for personal gain? Me betting that https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ will report more than 500k deaths excluding the US by the end of the year
  - Mikeb85 6y ago
    $100 works for me for an internet bet. I think charity, can just provide proof so don't have to bother with transferring money. And I'm ok with the terms. If you have a favourite charity can go with that.
    - Lewton 6y ago
      Deal :) I suggest Give Directly https://www.givewell.org/charities/give-directly https://www.givewell.org/charities/give-directly If you prefer something else, I suggest anything on https://www.givewell.org https://www.givewell.org list of charities

by Lewton 6y ago

Mikeb85 6y ago

Singapore has 11 deaths total from Covid... In a city state of 5 million. Also, warm climate doesn't mean there's no air conditioned buildings or absolutely no spread, but the stats do suggest it makes spread more difficult. 500k excluding the US seems pretty good for me. That means you expect 5x more deaths than up to now, despite deaths peaking in all the hardest hit countries that aren't the US...

Lewton 6y ago
> 500k excluding the US seems pretty good for me. That means you expect 5x more deaths than up to now, despite deaths peaking in all the hardest hit countries that aren't the US... Yes. You seem to be under the impression that the virus has saturated the world and has stopped spreading for some, to me, completely unfathomable reason So. What'll you say.. $50? $100? $1000? Money goes to charity, or for personal gain? Me betting that https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ will report more than 500k deaths excluding the US by the end of the year
- Mikeb85 6y ago
  $100 works for me for an internet bet. I think charity, can just provide proof so don't have to bother with transferring money. And I'm ok with the terms. If you have a favourite charity can go with that.
  - Lewton 6y ago
    Deal :) I suggest Give Directly https://www.givewell.org/charities/give-directly https://www.givewell.org/charities/give-directly If you prefer something else, I suggest anything on https://www.givewell.org https://www.givewell.org list of charities