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Tablets Are Not Killing Laptops
- beloch 12y agoLaptops were supposed to kill the desktop, but they're still around. The obsolescence rate for desktops dropped off sharply so sales have slumped, but they're still being used a lot. Laptops, especially small form-factor ones, have historically been underpowered. However, they're also reaching the point where they're going to last for years and years if they're not deliberately hamstrung by soldered on batteries, etc.. No doubt manufacturers saw this coming and hence, tablets became the next big thing. Tablets, at present, are almost all underpowered. Even the performance king, the Surface 3, reportedly doesn't have quite enough horse-power to push its newly expanded stable of pixels. For this reason, tablet sales are going to remain hot for a few years at least, even if tablets claim relatively few hours of use versus laptops or computers. A big question of concern for electronics manufacturers is: What's next? Once tablets start lasting for years and years, what is the next big thing that will let them keep growing sales?
- privong 12y ago> A big question of concern for electronics manufacturers is: What's next? Once tablets start lasting for years and years, what is the next big thing that will let them keep growing sales? It seems as though people are hoping wearables will become the next big thing. If the UI, battery life, and independence (i.e., making them usable without needing a phone) can be sorted out, I think it's a possibility. But the margins will be much smaller.
- frozenport 12y ago>>But the margins will be much smaller. Thats hard to predict, for example what are the margins for $200 laptops at Walmart?
- Spooky23 12y agoThere hasn't been any margin in PCs in many years. For large enterprise purchases, Dell/HP/etc takes losses and makes its money via kickbacks from Intel. My guess is that wearable stuff would be higher margin, and tied to super high margin services.
- bluthru 12y agoWearables seem to be more about sensors versus where people spend their time with media, doing work, or socializing.
- seunosewa 12y agoThe focus will have to turn to apps. New types of apps that make our tablets more useful. Apple is positioned to make a lot of money from this; their 30% cut on all app purchases is substantial. The growth of apps may drive the development of more powerful tablets up to a point where every tablet can satisfy 99.9% of your computing needs, as is the case with laptops and desktops today. We're not quite there yet, but we may be there in a few years.
- 6cxs2hd6 12y agoMaybe I'm contrarian, cynical, and/or old, but I never fully understood the compulsion to advance an alternative mobile ecosystem in the form of iOS and Android -- at least not with the mission of eradicating OSX, Linux, Windows on laptops. A tablet with a keyboard is a poor laptop replacement -- slow, limited, and in an awkward form factor. Most "native apps" are CRUD apps that are better on mobile than web apps mainly just because mobile web browsers need to improve. (Admittedly possible big exception to that: Games.) So if, after a couple years of experimenting, it turns out many people don't love tablets as laptop replacements, after all? I think -- that's fine. Experiment done. It didn't pan out. Let it go. Let's move the effort back to improving and innovating with "conventional" laptops and OSs, as well as trying things more inherently new like wearables or whatever. I understand that each generation wants to reinvent all the wheels, but it seems like an unfortunate, wasteful diversion of resources.
- seabrookmx 12y agoAgreed. I find tablets have a few niche uses which may continue to warrant new tablet development, but I really don't see the desire to push them into the role of "main computational device" for the majority of users. I own a tablet that hasn't had the WiFi turned on in over a year. I use it exclusively as an e-reader (soon, I may just buy a proper e-reader). I think these devices have a place, but I'm not going to code on it, or write my cover letter on it. People need to stop telling me I should be able to, because even if I could, I wouldn't want to!
- seanmcdirmid 12y ago
- jseliger 12y agoLaptops were supposed to kill the desktop, but they're still around Nice comment. I'd add one thing, which I wrote more about here: http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/desktop-pcs-arent-going-anywhere-despite-the-growth-of-phones-and-tablets%E2%80%94because-theyre-cheap/ http://jseliger.wordpress.com/2011/10/09/desktop-pcs-arent-g... : people still like desktops because they're really cheap. In terms of dollars per megahertz (or most "dollars per X" measurement one might want to use) they're the cheapest way to get the most bang for your buck. They're also easier to repair and upgrade. Most people probably don't, but the option is nice.
- jiggy2011 12y agoThey're also designed to stay in one place, which is nice for offices vs finding that people have re-arranged them all over the place and a bunch are missing. You can also hold a store of spare computers and spare monitors/keyboards and swap out ones that are broken, repair and then return to circulation. This would be harder and more expensive with laptops.
- seabrookmx 12y agoTo summarize what you're saying in a sentence, desktops are a boon for IT departments. People often miss this factor, but an office full of desktops on a Windows Active Directory domain is probably the easiest way to manage a large office's computing experience. People often cite compatibility with legacy applications as the reason most offices are windows based, but in reality this is less true every day, as a most offices are heavily reliant on web services (for instance, my office uses a corporate GMail as opposed to MS Outlook). Features like Active Directory are Microsoft's real footholds, IMHO.
- seanmcdirmid 12y ago> Laptops were supposed to kill the desktop, but they're still around. They are almost completely dead in consumer. I'm hopping 2X displays will change that; its crazy that my laptop's 13" screen has more resolution than a desktop 27" display! Also, I move a lot, and not having a desktop is really useful in that regard (though, once I can procure a nice high resolution large display, it might be worth it). > years if they're not deliberately hamstrung by soldered on batteries, etc.. You mean molded batteries right? Just like with tablets, it is difficult to include a modular battery if you want to use space and weight efficiently. > What's next? VR, wearables, wall mounted e-paper based computers, etc... I don't think we'll reach a point where our computing experience remains stable for a while (at least, I hope so).
- higherpurpose 12y agoBy that logic smartphones haven't really killed the feature phones either.
- freehunter 12y agoI don't want to replace my tablet with a laptop, and I don't want to have a kickstand keep my screen up. I want a tablet that docks into a keyboard. I want the stability of a laptop whenever I need it and the comfort of a tablet whenever I want it. Asus did it with their Transformer Book T100, but I don't know of anyone else doing it. I don't want a Yoga, that's the same old convertible laptop we've had for years. I want the entire screen to detach and become semi-portable. And I want the keyboard dock to have a big battery in it, so the tablet can run for 10 hours and as a laptop it can run for 15 or 20 hours. Why is that not a thing?
- nlawalker 12y agoLenovo has the Thinkpad Helix. But why not just have two devices? When you detach the keyboard you practically do have two devices, but one of them is useless. This is my guess as to why this hasn't really taken off - because the keyboard doesn't fold itself into another dimension when you don't want to use it.
- freehunter 12y ago>But why not just have two devices? I would ask: but why have two devices? Why have a laptop and a tablet with separate storage and settings, when you can have a laptop and a tablet with the same storage and the same settings, just a different interface depending on the use case? They keyboard doesn't fold into another dimension, but it does detach. On things like the Yoga, the keyboard doesn't fold into another dimension, it folds against the screen, making the tablet much thicker and heavier than it needs to be. At least with the Transformer T100 the keyboard can just go away.
- hollerith 12y ago>But why not just have two devices? There's some convenience to not having to sync data between devices, which is why a lot of people ditched their desktops when 10 or 15 years ago it started to become affordable to get desktop-like power in a laptop form factor.
- polshaw 12y ago
- kayoone 12y agoFor me the MS Surface would be more appealing if they had built something like the Thinkpad Helix convertible, but i can't see the benefit in the typecover thing and the kickstand.
- mrjatx 12y agoI have a tablet and a laptop. I want a convertible badly. I'm tempted to leave OSX for one (a Surface 3 most likely). Catch up, Apple. You used to innovate. If 10.10 is another nightmare for my dev environment like Mavericks and the recent xcode updates the decision will be even easier.
- zw123456 12y agoI have a Vaio Flip and I have really fallen in love with it, and now that the start is back for Windows 8 I like it even better. I agree Apple is falling behind.
- Casseres 12y agoYou might want to look into the Thinkpad Yoga. I use it mainly as a laptop, but the few times I've used it as a tablet, it's worked out pretty well for me. (I also think it's the perfect device for Windows 8.1). If there is a Microsoft Store in your area, check it out, they should have some Thinkpad Yoga demo units.
- seabrookmx 12y agoIf you rely on XCode is moving to Windows really an option? (honest question - I know nothing about XCode but I was under the impression it was used only for OS X and iOS development).
- mrjatx 12y agoYou need xcode at some point to sign and publish apps. What I have setup is a continuous integration server (bamboo) on a mac mini that I tell to build the apps for testing. I haven't actually set it up for signing/publishing.. but theoretically I could have it do that as well. So I should have no problems writing the actual code in linux but then I'll wind up with a few additional steps along with extra hardware. I'm surprised that Apple hasn't locked down xcode to only be installed on specific devices, like MBPs and Mac Pros. That would be a huge slap in the face but I can totally see it happening if doing what I mentioned above becomes more popular. Personally I'd rather just code for the web and be as OS agnostic as possible, html5 and javascript
- Scramblejams 12y agoOnly semi-relatedly, that Facebook sharing overlay is horrible. It comes up three seconds after the page loads -- I haven't even had time to read the piece yet, how could I possibly know whether I want to share it! And reading the piece? Can't with that monstrosity in the way. And there's no obvious affordance to make it disappear, you have to guess that clicking somewhere makes it go away. Poorly conceived on every level.
- bigbugbag 12y agoI had no such thing happen to me, don't know if it's because I block everything facebook or because I disable javascript by default. Point is nowadays most websites try really hard to get in the way between visitor and content to push for some pointless marketing. Disabling javascript or at least third party javascript is the modern popup blocker. Maybe give a try to noscript or requestpolicy with firefox, no advice for opera which used to be something but now is just a skin for google chrome, speaking of which if you're using google chrome you deserve to suffer through overlays.
- martin-adams 12y ago>> The Surface Pro 2 can run full Windows 8 apps and services too, but it is with the Surface Pro 3 that the Surface has finally matured. I've been running a Surface Pro 2 since February and I can say that this is a very mature product. It has replaced my quad core laptop with 24GB RAM because it handles exactly what I need. I'm running PHP Storm, Photoshop, 2 x 1080p displays + the surface display, Virtual Box with 2-3 Ubuntu VMs running, all while using Skype, Spotify, Backblaze, Google Drive, etc, etc.
- WorldWideWayne 12y agoI've had a Surface Pro since it was released and I love it. It's better than any Apple product that I've ever owned. Instead of forcing opinionated workflows on me and artificially limiting my options, I get to work the way that I want to and if I need Unix, it's running in a VM.
- Touche 12y agoIt's weird of you to say that given that the Surface RT has the artificial limitation of only being able to run apps from their app store.
- mhurron 12y agoThe RT and Pro are not the same thing. Notice how everyone is praising the Pro specifically. You're more comparing a MacBook Air to a iPad and asking why is everyone developing on OS X when the iPad is so limited. The RT really should have never existed, it's a horrible mark on the Surface line.
- Touche 12y agoHow are they "not the same thing"? The only difference is the chip architecture. That's like saying a PowerPC Mac and a first-gen Intel Mac are "not the same thing". That's ridiculous. That they placed artificial limitations on the ARM version definitely is a black mark on the Surface. I really don't get the love of the Pro though. They are heavy and don't get good battery life. That's fine for a laptop thing, but not for a tablet. And because of the compromises necessary to make it both, it just strikes me as a poor laptop and a poor tablet.
- joesmo 12y agoThe article starts out strong then becomes an ad for the Surface Pro 3 without actually stating what's so great about the SP3. Sure tablets are not killing laptops for all the reasons outlined and more. This isn't news. What also isn't news is the existence of the Macbook Air (and similar non Apple models) and its ability to run regular programs since its inception, including windows. It's easily powerful enough to develop apps on (that's what I use for consulting) while being light and small enough to be carried. In other words, the Air and other ultrabooks have been able to do for years exactly what the author touts the SP3 as finally being able to do: run regular applications with a keyboard. No one needs need a poorly written, wandering article to them that.
- notahacker 12y agoThe SP3 has the form factor and touchscreen of a tablet when you want it, reportedly doing a more convincing impersonation of a decent tablet than other touchscreen laptops. The Macbook Air or my cheap four year old Samsung almostultrabook, on the other hand, are far more competent than tablets at most things, but no good at actually being a tablet on the rare occasions that touchscreens are useful or the laptop form factor gets in the way.
- aunty_helen 12y agoIt's a paid piece... Notice how the author builds up the case against tablets and laptops, introduces the surface then lets you conclude that its the perfect device to fill this gap.
- mcintyre1994 12y ago"People are abandoning their tablets, being less fulfilled with the purchase" Are there any sources for these 2 claims? Neither follow immediately from the (sourced) claim that tablet sales are slowing - nor are they obvious.
- mreiland 12y agoI don't have any sources, but it certainly tracks with my experience. I use my ipad 3 for pulling up info when I don't want to move. Watching a movie and wonder who that actor is, that sort of thing. But for normal, consistent use? not really.
- general_failure 12y agoLaptops are not innovating and to me that's what really killing laptops. Sad that people are hardly innovating in the laptop space and blindly following the tablet money without understanding why tablets are making money
- Zak 12y agoI'd say what's killing laptop sales is older laptops. The software most people run on their laptops is not especially more demanding than it was say... five years ago. Even for hackers, a five year old Thinkpad or Macbook Pro with its RAM maxed out and an SSD is a perfectly viable computer. We've seen plenty of innovation during that period in the laptop market. Entry level machines haven't changed a lot, but they cost half as much. At the high-end, much of the focus has been on size, weight and design. The Macbook Air, when it first came out in 2008 was pretty revolutionary. Then, a laptop was considered thin if it was under an inch thick. Now it's common to hear people protest that they couldn't possibly lug around anything so bulky. Maybe these aren't the kinds of innovations you care about. I'm with you there, and a lot of the features I'd like to have aren't even available, but there has been considerable progress.
- MBCook 12y agoAs someone using a four-year-old MacBook Pro I can tell you that the thing got a whole lot better soon as I put an SSD in. It's not that heavy and it's easy enough for me to use so I don't really have a compelling need to replace it. It's got more than enough power for my everyday tasks. I think the other thing it's really killing laptops is people who didn't want to buy one in the first place. There are a lot of people who just wanted a portable computer they could use to play around on the Internet. They were the people drawn in by $300 laptop, since laptops no longer needed to cost thousands of dollars. But now that you can get a smaller lighter tablet that's easier to use for about the cost of a poor netbook that market has mostly dried up. At this point people who are buying laptops are people who need real computers. Just like desktop sales are down, but are still purchased by the people who need to power and don't mind immobility. Another way to phrasal this might be "the laptop bad fad is over".
- Zigurd 12y agoTablets should not aim to kill laptops. Tablets, and a new generation of LoB apps and collaboration tools, should aim to kill cubicles. Laptops will just be collateral damage once you rip out the cubicles and spend more time face to face with your co-workers.
- gress 12y agoThis is because 'X is killing Y' is almost always a meaningless analogy designed to generate controversy rather than understanding.
- wyclif 12y agoNeeds an editorial once-over for spelling and grammar.
- crazychrome 12y agowhat will kill laptops? time. just like what it does to typewriters: old people fade out, new people come with what they are familiar with. there will be much better input methods (e.g. voice + virtual keyboard hybrid), much better UI paradigms, much better devices at much better prices. to be honest, i don't see anything in everyday office work requires more computing power than what iPad offers. Most heavy-lifting computation will (if not yet) be done on cloud. in fact, I'd argue the single thing blocks the transition from laptops to tablets is the ridiculous long review process Apple imposes. It mandates a 1-week per iteration of software evolution rate. how many startups can live with it?