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Tesla Gigafactory [pdf]
- jakozaur 13y agoRaw materials for battery cost: 80 KW/hour. Historical cost of batteries (2012) 600 KW/hour... Looks like Gigafactory is going to take advantage of that difference. http://takingpitches.com/2012/09/22/elon-musk-the-role-of-analogy-and-reasoning-from-first-principles-in-disruptive-entrepreneurship/ http://takingpitches.com/2012/09/22/elon-musk-the-role-of-an...
- foobarqux 13y agoWhat am I supposed to take away from this presentation?
- hnnewguy 13y agoNot much there. The TSLA marketing machine is in full effect.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- josh-wrale 13y agoWe'll all know if it's more than pure marketing if they raise the bonds and secure the corporate alliances necessary to build this. Convincing Panasonic is no small feat, IMHO.
- hnnewguy 13y agoI'm not talking about the Gigafactory itself being marketing. They've been talking about it for the past two quarterly conference calls. It looks like something that is going to go ahead, somehow, at some point. What is full-blown marketing is Tesla releasing a 6 page pdf that has no build site, no financial details, very little information of any kind, a bare-bones artist's rendering of a hypothetical location, and what look like unrealistic projections regarding build capacity. Much like the Hyperloop paper, there's very little substance. But it makes the rounds of the internet, conveniently coinciding with a share dilution. Musk is clever in more ways than one.
- makomk 13y agoThe projections of build capacity look to be roughly what's needed in order for Tesla to actually achieve the growth investors are hoping for. If they're not realistic, then I reckon Tesla's growth is going to be severely and abruptly curtailed in the future.
- jffry 13y agoLooks like Tesla is investing in a domestic battery cell factory. Its projected output in 2020 will be approximately equal to the amount of cells output across the entire industry last year. They estimate a 30% decrease in cost/kWhr, which is pretty cool. Oh and they're building a ton of solar panels and turbines to help power it. Pretty cool if you ask me. It makes sense to me - if Tesla continues to grow, why pay the middleman for one of the most essential items in their cars?
- cfreeman 13y agoTo add to your last point, I think they absolutely need the batteries packs to be 30% cheaper for their planned mass-market car to be affordable.
- josh-wrale 13y agoThat's an exciting document, particularly the part about creating manufacturing jobs that have a realistic potential of product exportation. I wonder if TSLA threw Texas into the mix as incentive to repeal their Tesla ban. Re: http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas http://www.teslamotors.com/advocacy_texas I have a sneaking suspicion that it's going to be difficult for anyone in the U.S. to garner enough lithium to go full scale. Anyone know if Bolivia has sorted out their intentions for its epic lithium reserves? Perhaps, Mr. Musk has a friend or two there. Edit (answering my own question): http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/bolivia/130321/bolivian-lithium-exports-smartphone-electric-car-battery http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/bol... Edit 2 (more on the same.. more recent and relevant article): http://seekingalpha.com/article/1971851-tesla-motors-and-bolivias-lithium-strategy-whats-at-stake http://seekingalpha.com/article/1971851-tesla-motors-and-bol...
- grecy 13y ago> Anyone know if Bolivia has sorted out their intentions for its epic lithium reserves? Last I heard, they were planning to completely destroy the Uyuni Salt Flats to mine it for Lithium, which would be a horrible, horrible shame. It's spectacularly beautiful, and I was lucky enough to drive across it in my own Jeep a few years back[1,2] Also, once you've spent some time in the Silver mine at Potosi[3], it becomes horribly clear how bad it really is there. It drove me to tears. The tldr; is that miners work in horrible conditions for a few dollars a day and have a life expectancy of ~35. The silver is sold to the Bolivian government for a fraction of the world market price. The Bolivian government sells it to the Peruvian government for a 10x mark-up, which is still a fraction of the world market price. The Peruvian government sells it to the US government for a 10x mark-up, which is still way below the world market price. The miners die very poor. [1] http://theroadchoseme.com/the-uyuni-salt-flats-to-chile-1 http://theroadchoseme.com/the-uyuni-salt-flats-to-chile-1 [2] http://theroadchoseme.com/the-uyuni-salt-flats-to-chile-2 http://theroadchoseme.com/the-uyuni-salt-flats-to-chile-2 [3] http://theroadchoseme.com/potosi http://theroadchoseme.com/potosi
- josh-wrale 13y agoThat's a very enlightening answer. Thank you very much.
- cmelbye 13y agoHave they released any information on who they're partnering with yet?
- goatforce5 13y agoPanasonic has been mentioned: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/us-tesla-battery-panasonic-idUSBREA1O1MF20140226 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/26/us-tesla-battery-p... And i'll bet that their meetings with Apple were regarding this factory: http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/02/16/apple-secretly-met-with-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-also-working-on-tech-to-predict-heart-attacks http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/02/16/apple-secretly-met...
- Mvandenbergh 13y agoThat's a good point about Apple. If they're able to get batteries 10-15% cheaper than they currently can (I'm guessing they already get a large discount through their buying power) it would make it even easier to defend their mobile and tablet positions. It's also the exact kind of thing that Tim Cook would do.
- abcabc321321123 13y agoFrom Tesla's 10-k, "While our plan is to attempt to produce lithium-ion cells and finished battery packs for our Gen III vehicles at a new Tesla Gigafactory, our plans for such production are at a very early stage. We have no experience in the production of lithium-ion cells, and accordingly we intend to engage partners with significant experience in cell production and to date we have not formalized such partnerships. In addition, the cost of building and operating the Tesla Gigafactory could exceed our current expectations and the Tesla Gigafactory may take longer to bring online than we anticipate."
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- startupfounder 13y agoTesla Gigafactory will cost $4-5B (of which Tesla will invest $2B) and exceed 2013 global battery production, enough for 500,000 cars, 30% less than current costs due to third generation technology. That is 12x growth in 72 months. The Gigafactory is named after the gigawatt or 1,000,000 kW because it will be producing multiple GWs of cells and battery packs. An annual production of 500,000 automobiles will put Tesla squarely in the #1 spot for luxury production 3x more than Mercedes. If you look at global auto sales[0] Tesla will be one of the largest, read top 5, auto manufacturers in the USA depending on how you slice the pie between domestic and international sales. [0] http://wap.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesE http://wap.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#aut...
- avoutthere 13y agoOnly a portion of those will be Model S. I suspect that most will be Model E.
- jasonlmk 13y agoParticularly excited about the cost reduction of batteries. They remain a barrier to having more affordable electric cars, and 30% goes a long way in putting more EVs on the road.
- umsm 13y agoBy the time batteries become mainstream, the subsidies for EVs will probably disappear as well.
- scott_karana 13y agoI suspect they'll still have some sort of "not a gas guzzler or CO2 producer" subsidy, though it'd likely be very mild.
- wlesieutre 13y agoIf you don't have solar panels on your roof, chances are it's still coming from fossil fuels. Generation/transmission efficiency for taking energy from fossil fuels and getting it to your house is around 30%. Electric cars are part of a solution to CO2 emissions, but they aren't one on their own.
- debt 13y agoWhy wouldn't the countries where these batteries are currently developed decide to heavily tax the export of these batteries to Tesla thus offsetting any net economic benefits of the Gigafactory? Though there seems to be enough competitors where this wouldn't be a problem.
- robbiep 13y agoBecause of the WTO and binding open trade agreements
- eru 13y agoThere's more than one country involved in exporting these batteries. If only one country would tax exports, they would lose market share to the factories in other countries. (Then add WTO restrictions on top of that. Thanks to the WTO!)
- simonsquiff 13y agoI'm a massive fan of Tesla and Musk, a Tesla shareholder from the IPO and definitely support the gigafactory but this is a surprisingly poor presentation. It doesn't layout the need for it, nor what advantage it will give Telsa (other than an unclear 30% cost reduction - compared to today or the rest of the market in 2017?); what is their market - all Tesla, other electric vehicles, solar storage etc. It's surprisingly sparce of detail for such a bold, punchy move.
- ChuckMcM 13y agoYou probably need to see the speaker notes (or listen to the presentation) basically, the battery pack is a huge chunk of cost in the car, this is especially true in lower cost cars, and the markup of the materials as they go through the process which quite high (basically that is code for 'the battery makers are making huge margins on batteries). Without a battery competitor to try to squeeze margins, you are forced to either do your own batteries or cede the margin to the battery maker. By putting this out there you end up effectively negotiating with Panasonic (the biggest supplier) to either take lower margins or lose their biggest customer. In order to make that sort of threat you have to credibly be able to build the capability. So Panasonic (and potentially other manufacturers that see the sorts of margins they get) see this and react. One hopes they react by lowering their prices (taking less margin) or by new companies entering the field which are structured to operate on lower margins. The overall effect is the same, Tesla negotiates a better price on a pricey chunk of their cars.
- gregcohn 13y agoReflexive but actually relevant (in the sense of incredible pace of advancing efficiency): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5cYgRnfFDA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5cYgRnfFDA
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- brianbreslin 13y agoThis is classic Apple strategy. Apple now makes its own chips, buys up memory by the billions, etc. It uses its economies of scale to further solidify its moat.
- ac29 13y agoIts called vertical integration, and its been around for a long time before Apple.
- brianbreslin 13y agooh i know but Elon seems to fancy himself Jobs.
- cloudwalking 13y agoI don't think so. If you listen to them both speak about their companies, Jobs was more interested in revolutionizing how humans use technology. Musk is more interested in saving the human race from itself. Solar City is about renewable energy, Tesla is about vehicle safety and renewable energy, and SpaceX is about establishing life off of earth. You are certainly right to draw a parallel--they both want to change the world--but Musk literally wants to evolve humanity.
- hnnewguy 13y ago>Musk is more interested in saving the human race You know, I watch his talks (because I'm interested in the work his company's do) and listen to the investor's quarterly conference calls (because I own a small stake in TSLA) and I don't understand where the hero worship comes from. To me, Musk comes off as another shrewd business man, almost crossing over into the slick/shady end of the spectrum sometimes.
- cloudwalking 13y agoI think the term is Vertical Integration.
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- tomphoolery 13y agoI'm also super stoked to hear about Jay-Z's new album coming out, "Jiggafactory".
- curiousDog 13y agoEven though this is touted as a green factory, nothing's been said about the raw materials and their mining. That's where most of the pollution and toxicity happens. I remember reading somewhere about how mining the rare-earth's used in battery packs nullify any environmental advantages battery-packs bring.
- fmitchell0 13y agocool. a Drupal site. :-)
- beachminter 13y agoMid 30k for a Tesla? Yes please.