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Interesting point that big government provoked the advancement of the hyperloop idea - counterintuitive idea, and clearly yes. but any idea like this will need
by lmg643 13y ago
Interesting point that big government provoked the advancement of the hyperloop idea - counterintuitive idea, and clearly yes. but any idea like this will need government cooperation. The real test of big government will be how they respond to the hyperloop.
magic response: "of course we may be wrong, we'll look into this immediately." and then they decide to build it.
likely answer: praise, perhaps even an evaluation, then disregard as unrealistic a year from now.
why would "big government" ignore this idea? fairly simple: risky and unproven, for a politician, in a career where risk is not related to upside; and probably more important is the ability to control $70bn in spending to private citizens and contractors - far more valuable to their careers (leading to donations and influence) than spending a smaller amount (a mere $7bn) on fewer contractors. For the most part, the hyperloop contractors would not be the same guys who have been donating to politicians for the past decade in support of the train.
so yes, big government and the natural corruption of a large budget (donations->spending with favored constituents) will likely lead to the status quo - a ludicrously overpriced train.
as far as political repercussions, california is not a two party state any more, so there's no one to capitalize on the idiocy of the folks in power. i guess, we reap what we sow.
- adventureartist 13y agoI wouldn't be so fast to make that declaration. Elon Musk, Tesla, and SpaceX are pretty influential players right now, and I don't think anyone reading this white paper are anything less than wide eyed at the possibility that the future of travel is written right here and we could build it, for cheaper than the current slow expensive system. Influential people and money people and politicians are all going to read this and say Sounds great. Elon Musk? I'm listening. 7 Billion? Go on. And scientists are going to chime in, and universities, and people always forget the global reactions. Momentum. I'm going to keep my faith that this idea has legs.
- purplelobster 13y agoI hope you're right, but in reality most people haven't even heard of Elon Musk. I've had to explain to many highly educated people what he has done, what SpaceX is, what Tesla is etc. While he's been rather successful so far, he's not in the clear when it comes to either of his companies right now, he's not exactly at the Gates level of success yet. I'm rooting for him though, he has the potential to be one of the most influential people in a long time if things go well.
- smoorman1024 13y agoA segment about the Hyperloop was actually on the NBC nightly news. I think Musk is becoming a household name.
- newbie12 13y agoMusk is not financially Gates but he's already had a greater impact. PayPal, Telsa, SpaceX, and even that Solar company could easily be more important than creating the most successful PC operating system. The PC boom would have happened without Gates but Musk is pioneering entirely new business categories.
- bobsil1 13y agoNot only new categories, but technically sexy ones. These aren't Intuit. In fact they're quite far from Zip2/PayPal.
- clarky07 13y agoNo he hasn't. He could, but not yet. We have other payment processors, car companies, solar companies, and we went to the moon over 4 decades ago. Musk is really awesome, but don't discount Gates. Frankly, his philanthropy might be more important than Windows, and the stuff that Musk has done.
- TWAndrews 13y agoIf the Gates Foundation really does eliminate polio and make any sort of dent in malaria, that sets a very high bar for Must to jump over.
- dntrkv 13y ago3 months ago, none of my non-tech friends knew who Elon Musk was. In the past month or so, I would say 50% of my friends now not only know who he is, but praise him and his work. I think that by the end of this year, you will be hard-pressed to find someone that doesn't know who he is.
- fluidcruft 13y agoSpeaking of Gates, it could be interesting if he or other technocrats got behind this.
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- bsbechtel 13y agoUm, pressure your representative to support this idea instead of a high-speed rail system?
- ewoodrich 13y agoIt was approved by a ballot measure, so in this case it may be the "idiocy" (or will) of the voter. http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_1A,_High-Speed_Rail_Act_%282008%29 http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition...
- mcintyre1994 13y agoI'm not from the area, so I don't know how such a ballot works but for voters who didn't have Musk-level engineering knowledge, was the choice the status quo of not fast trains and spending on fast trains?
- pxtang 13y agoIIRC, the choice was between no trains and a train. I think a lot of people voted for it so they had a cheaper alternative than planes and a less time/effort intensive alternative than driving.
- dice 13y agoAlso because fuck the TSA.
- Maxious 13y agoToo late: http://www.seattlepi.com/technology/businessinsider/article/The-TSA-Is-Expanding-Its-Reach-Far-Beyond-Airport-4713030.php http://www.seattlepi.com/technology/businessinsider/article/... > If you don't want to be searched at the train station, you have the freedom to not ride the train.
- kamjam 13y agoI wonder what the security checkpoints would be like on the HyperLoop if it ever got built? They are saying capsules could depart 30 seconds apart. Imagine is there was an attack in on of them, with several others travelling at high speed just behind. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23677205 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23677205 I'm sure there some contingency has been thought of, unfortunately it's just the world we live in these days :(
- abruzzi 13y agoThe problem is that, at least with the CA high speed rail system, the design is all theoretical at the moment. It may be a brilliant idea, but but moving from the core ideas in the document to actual working, build-able products, can be a slow process. And given the state of where CA is on their project, that may not put them on the same window.
- dllthomas 13y agoThe R&D can't happen in government, but in some ways that's better - government projects are slower than this needs to be. What we need is for someone(s?) with deep pockets to bank-roll prototypes &c.
- jarek 13y agoSounds vaguely like maglev a couple of decades ago. It too was a neat idea on paper.
- MAGZine 13y agoExcept test tracks have been built or are being built, and it's sure to become a reality sometime or another.
- jarek 13y agoSo we're all rooting for hyperloop to have test tracks in 2015, demo tracks in 2020, very limited real-life deployment in 2040, and sure to become inter-city mainstream reality sometime later? Some think we'll be on Mars by then ;)
- MAGZine 13y agoI somehow think that if people wanted it, it would come faster than 2040. We're working towards fusion power faster than that!
- 9999 13y agoJerry Brown's political career is coming to an end, so there are no long term political consequences for him. He's also traditionally been an opponent of government waste. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that he would choose an unproven but promising technology over our existing useless high speed rail project. The assembly is another matter. If you think hyperloop is interesting, write and call your state assembly member and encourage them to consider this plan, that's what I'll do.
- VladRussian2 13y ago>He's also traditionally been an opponent of government waste. he is in bed with gov employees unions (the unions are primary driving force behind 200-300K/year gov employees pensions (http://www.mercurynews.com/salaries/pensions http://www.mercurynews.com/salaries/pensions) with retirement age of 55, CA is something like $200B deep in that hole), and especially with prison guard union - of course huge prison population resulting from "toughness on crime" may not be viewed as government waste by some. Building a bridge or high-speed rail to nowhere - just a [large] peanut in that picture.
- dragonwriter 13y ago> the unions are primary driving force behind 200-300K/year gov employees pensions 200-300K/year (and higher) pensions are pretty much entirely executives who weren't union members, it has nothing to do with unions. e.g., the #1 highest: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/27/opinion/la-oe-cole-vernon-20101227 http://articles.latimes.com/2010/dec/27/opinion/la-oe-cole-v...
- VladRussian2 13y ago>executives who weren't union members, it has nothing to do with unions. http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=24566 http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/show_story.php?id=24566
- jarek 13y ago
- dllthomas 13y agoHow about spend the full amount, but on more links? That way, you're employing probably more people, both short term and long term.
- smadge 13y agoAre you seriously saying that government wont consider Hyperloop because they are averse to innovation? On the contrary, "big government" has been the largest engine of innovation the past century. NASA has put people into orbit, and on to the Moon, has launched the first space stations, and made several robotic probes to other planets and the depths of space. Musk founded SpaceX which has managed to do a fraction of the things NASA has decades after them. In 1972, the Rand corporation, financed by the United States, thoroughly researched a "Very High Speed Transit System" that is similar to Musk's proposal. Sure there will be political difficulties implementing something like The Very High Speed Transit System or Hyperloop, but realistically the government is the only entity that has the foresight, money, and motivation to undertake such a project.
- sitkack 13y agoNASA total budget over its lifetime: $790.0 B in 2007 dollars. Just the book cost of the wars since 2001, http://costofwar.com/ http://costofwar.com/ 1.45 T not including future costs (debt payments, health care, net drag on economy) are roughly 2 more entire lifetime-NASAs. Wow. How much innovation have those two wars earned us? How about large scale funding of science and technology is an "engine of innovation", whatever that term means.
- smadge 13y agoThat's what I'm advocating, that the government spend more money on science and technology. The government is able to take risks in investing in unproven technologies and sciences where industry can't, because they aren't concerned with profit. I'm not an apologist for the wars.
- ctdonath 13y agoProblem is, we don't have more money to spend on anything. The US government is spending twice revenue - not a position where you hemorrhage cash & credit with no concern for profit. (And no, it's not going to "stimulate the economy" back up to break-even.) On top of that, the government used to take such risks in unproven technologies, underlined by tolerating the non-trivial odds of spectacular lethal failure...but that was decades ago. Now it can't even make a bus door without plastering eighteen warning signs around it [1]. Exploratory spending is great when you have money to spare. We don't. Now we have to rely on Elon Musk et al to pursue outlier projects - and they only reason they can is because of the big literal payoff if it works. [1] - Have you counted 'em? I have. 18.
- meddlepal 13y agoThe reason this will never be built is because it's incredibly unproven. At least with HSR the unknowns are sort of understood and the costs can be calculated. Nobody knows what the unknown costs are with Hyperloop. Not to mention safety. Nobody is going to just trust Musk to say it's safe. There will be a decade of trials to test it before it even gets green light approval for a small practically useable section.
- dragonwriter 13y ago> as far as political repercussions, california is not a two party state any more The Republicans haven't yet adapted to the people of the State taking away their ability to roadblock budgets from the minority, which is a crutch they'd come to rely on to avoid dealing with the difficulty of trying to build a minimum winning coalition in CA while at the same time toeing the line of the national party. I'd be surprised though if they haven't started returning to being an effective opposition by the 2014 elections.
- mncolinlee 13y agoHaving run for state office three times in Minnesota, I can respond to some of this. Politicians aren't all afraid to take risks, especially when they believe a particular policy they like will live on and be remembered. Our former governor Jesse Ventura overcame incredible resistance and media scorn to get our first light rail line built. Almost all casual observers thought major health care reform was impossible in Washington. These things actually happened. The key to passing a good policy is to reduce the risk. Politicians love projects where someone else was the guinea pig for them and/or someone else pays for studies and prototypes. Usually, they look for other units of government that have done something very similar with great success. If I wanted to get Hyperloop to pass, I would first aim to table discussions on high speed rail for the proposed route. You would find allies among politicians who don't want to spend any money on transit, usually to appease highway contractors. Secondly, I would immediately aim to seek R&D money for a high-profile demonstration project with plenty of funding for a study to project potential costs and impacts. This effort should even begin before the high speed rail bidding is tabled. I would leverage the demonstration results in the media and build a grassroots and lobbying organization around support for a Hyperloop. Finally, I would seek advice from experts to craft a model bill with appropriate requirements for the bidding process.
- vannevar 13y agoThough I'm not sure you intended it, this is an excellent summary of why the US doesn't have a decent mass transit system. Even if you get past the formidable political opposition to any public transit system, you must contend with a coalition of that opposition plus an assortment of interests that want a different system, possibly because it looks better on paper (hey, Hyperloop!) but more commonly because it benefits them financially. So in the end, no system is built at all. If the high speed rail project is scrapped, it won't be in favor of Hyperloop. It will be in favor of doing nothing.
- ceol 13y agoThe US will never have a decent mass transit system due to its sheer size.