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Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations
- cryptoz 13y agoTSLA is currently up 21%! Wow, and still climbing... Edit: Flying past 27% in after hours trading.
- jakebellacera 13y agoWhen a company gets press like this, the amount of volume increases heavily.
- dusing 13y agoGroupon is up 13% today
- niggler 13y agoNow TSLA is up 21% (67.90 last trade)
- typicalrunt 13y agoI've never seen the fairness of after hours trading. The majority of people don't have access to it (that I've spoken to), yet that is when you see some major moves (up or down) in a stock. Congrats to Tesla for turning their first profit!
- enraged_camel 13y agoFrom Wikipedia: Trading outside these regular hours is not a new phenomenon but previously was limited to high net-worth investors and institutional investors like mutual funds.[2] The emergence of private trading systems, known as electronic communication networks or ECNs, has allowed individual investors to participate in after-hours trading. In other words, nothing unfair about it.
- adventured 13y agoThe majority of investors can easily get access to after hours trading these days. A simple Scottrade account comes with the ability to trade after hours.
- meric 13y agoThat's only because companies tend to release market sensitive information outside of trading hours. If you do it within trading hours, a trading halt must be in place. In which case, the major moves up or down of a stock is still outside of trading hours. Price changes are discrete, not continuous.
- onedognight 13y ago> The majority of people don't have access to it Schwab supports after hours trading from their accounts.
- 3am 13y agoA couple of interesting statistics about stocks that are easily available are related to how many people are shorting it (ie, someone borrows a share, sells it, and makes a profit if they can re-buy it at a later date to close the short position). In the case of TSLA the stock, as of Apr 15, almost 31 million shares were lent out to short sellers ("sold short"). That is out of 72 million shares on the market ("float"). At an average volume of 3 million shares traded per day (trailing 3 month average) it would take more that 10 trading days of nothing but short sellers buying shares on the open market to return to the people they borrowed them from ("cover"). Short trading unhedged is regarded as dangerous for this reason. If you buy a stock in the traditional way, if it goes to zero you only lose your investment. If you sell a share short, your losses (amount you have to re-buy it for minus the price you sold it for) is unbounded. Typically, this isn't collateralized by cash, but in money that brokers loan to traders ("margin"). If a broker sees that I have a really, really big loss on a short position, they might make me repay that money ("issue a margin call")... and depending on the situation, that might force a trader to cover their short position. Anyway, point is that this can lead to a bunch of short sellers driving up the price of a heavily short stock all at once because they've either decided to cut their losses or because of margin calls, called a "short squeeze". This usually isn't sustainable because it's a temporary supply/demand imbalance. Could be an tough day for a lot of people investing against Tesla tomorrow, but I wouldn't bet on the gains in TSLA the stock tomorrow/in after-hours trading lasting for a long time.
- enraged_camel 13y agoThe most amazing thing about your post is that 95% of your post went right over my head. And I consider myself a fairly intelligent person. :P (There's probably some interesting commentary in there somewhere about the complexity of financial markets and how it is probably bad for society to have a vast portion of our economic growth riding on something most people don't get.)
- maxerickson 13y agoIt's more jargon than it is complexity. Most people don't get electricity or internal combustion engines or computers or whatever, so that is kind of a scary standard.
- cloudwalking 13y agoThis is the first of many profitable quarters for Tesla. The Model S is a better car in every single regard (except for range), than any other car on the market. It is safer, faster, roomier, more fun to drive, has more storage, quieter, more convenient, and less polluting. Electric vehicles will displace combustion vehicles. Everything that makes a car, the electric car does better. Right now the electric vehicle market is small, but soon (one decade?) it will eclipse the combustion market. Tesla is ahead of ALL other vehicle manufacturers, and that lead will translate into significant market share. As the electric vehicle market grows, so will Tesla's value.
- mrchucklepants 13y agoEverything but engine sound. I will miss the deep, throaty growl of a large V-8.
- stdgy 13y agoIn the future, I suspect we'll see aftermarket outfitters touting externally facing audio equipment to imitate the sounds produced by high-powered combustion engines. I also suspect the majority of them will be sold to teenagers with fairly under-powered vehicles ;)
- koenigdavidmj 13y agoActually this exists, but not for cosmetic reasons. Hybrid cars on their motors are just so silent that they're worried that someone (probably someone blind) will be hit by them.
- ricardobeat 13y agoThis already exists. The Nissan Leaf emits some cool sci-fi sounds by default, and I heard a dealer mention it can be replaced with a large selection of sounds by specialized auto shops.
- nfriedly 13y ago
- mikeyouse 13y agoA good article to help understand the massive afterhours movement: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2N0DO2IH20130508 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/08/autos-tesla-idUSL2... High-Level Summary: There was a ton of short-selling interest on TSLA (due to expectations of a big earnings miss). Almost 27% of the 115mm shares outstanding are currently being borrowed by short sellers. TSLA has more short interest by percentage than 98% of US stocks. Everyone was really expecting the price to go down. Tesla reported earnings today at $.12/share, and upped their forward guidance. The consensus earnings estimates were $.04/share, so TSLA greatly surpassed expectations. To short a stock, you have to borrow a share from someone else, and then return that stock to them at a later date. Returning the stock is called 'Covering a short'. All those people who were betting against TSLA are now forced to pile back into the market to cover, but since so many shares were short to begin with, the number of people who have stock to sell is much lower than typical. This results in a 'short covering rally' where there is a lot of demand to buy shares and a small supply. Econ. 101 takes over and you see a big spike in the price.
- revelation 13y agoShort levels have been that high for much of the existence of TSLA. Noone was expecting the price to go down with this announcement specifically. What you are describing is a short squeeze, and it's still unclear if that is indeed what we are seeing. Many shorts have been unwilling to cover, even when having to pay up to 85% lending rates for stock. A proper short squeeze would not only spike the price, it will make it explode; Volkswagen became the most valuable company in the world at a share price of 1k$ through a short squeeze (even if only for a short time). Remember also that a short squeeze depends on long investors not taking profit. It only worked in VW because the majority of shares were held by institutions unwilling to reduce their stake and of course Porsche, who manufactured the squeeze.
- mikeyouse 13y agoThe straddle on May 10 announcement was something like 15%.. people were definitely expecting some movement.
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- olefoo 13y agoMeh, Teslas are boring status mobiles now. If you like your electric cars to be interesting and exciting. Order an Arcimoto [1] instead. 1. http://www.arcimoto.com/ http://www.arcimoto.com/
- toomuchtodo 13y agoAre they even in production? I know if I write a check I can get a Tesla.
- olefoo 13y agoI've driven one. They're fun, they tilt to the curve. And they're more practical for a single city-dweller. Also, whoever downvoted me... can we keep this civil please? That HACKER news is becoming a place where people downvote mentions of upstart disruptive competitors in an attempt to curry the favor of well funded established companies. Is just kind of, sad.
- cb33 13y agoI think people just disagree with your comment...
- olefoo 13y agoAnd that's awesome if they can talk about it like intelligent people, but drive by downvotes are more the domain of some other news site. Of course, it's probably because I mentioned status... which is the third rail of Bay Area niceness; I mean it's an absolute meritocracy; right?
- toomuchtodo 13y agoIt's because you compared a niche product from a company with no track record and no production timeline to a mass market product, from a company with a CEO that has a history of goal completion, and that is in full production.
- rdl 13y agoIf you've been in Silicon Valley for the past 6 months, this was obviously going to happen -- virtually everyone I know who could afford virtually any production supercar, and cares about cars, has or wants a Tesla. Not an R8, not a GTR, not a California, not a Panamera, not an M3, but a Tesla. As they ramp up their production (I think it's down to a few months wait), The only rich people (who own cars) not getting Teslas seem to be either totally non-car people (or just cheap on capital costs vs. cost-efficient on total costs), or those who live in the City without a garage parking spot. Solving the Tesla street parking charging issue would be the next big win -- you could probably get away with 480v supercharging at work for 2-6h/day and street parking at home, although weekends might be tough.
- grecy 13y agoDoes anyone driving any of those super cars you mention park on the street?
- rdl 13y agoSurprisingly often. If not routinely, they absolutely do during the day when visiting places.
- waterlesscloud 13y agoIt's not a supercar, but a guy in my neighborhood (in Los Angeles) parks his Bentley on the street. Me, I'd clean out my garage if I had a Bentley.
- rdl 13y agoBack when YC had demo days at YC's office, rather than at a nearby museum with a parking lot, there were a lot of amazing cars street parked for blocks. And at least one highly lulzy incident involving an SL65 and an asshole machinist dragging it with a forklift into the middle of a street.
- bitbckt 13y agoThere's a guy on my street (SF) who does the same thing. It seems either insane or haughty to me.
- anateus 13y agoThe last several months in Silicon Valley I do not remember the last time I went outside for more than 5 minutes and not seen a Tesla. I noticed about a week ago I stopped caring, much as I do not especially remark on noticing a Honda or a Ford. That's a good sign, though likely very geographically localized.
- msoad 13y agoMe to my wife when driving in SV: Do you know Tesla cars? They are amazing! My wife: No, I don't know about them. Me: Let me show you one (in two seconds) here is one. Look how beautiful is that! To find a Tesla in Silicon Valley you just need to turn your head up!
- jakebellacera 13y ago> though likely very geographically localized. Last week I drove from Sacramento to San Jose and it seemed as if the closer I got to SJ, the more Teslas I saw.
- dangrossman 13y ago> though likely very geographically localized I live a bit outside Philadelphia (but visit the city proper often), and haven't seen a Tesla here yet.
- johnward 13y agoI've seen 2 in Pittsburgh. I see one driving what I can estimate is ~30-40miles one way every day.
- southphillyman 13y agoLower Merion resident here. I see them from time to time in my area and on 476. Have not seen them in Philadelphia proper yet.
- Shebanator 13y agoThere are so many Model S's at google we call them "Palo Alto Camrys".
- clientbiller 13y agoDon't... Bet... Against... Elon...
- SPSteinbeck 13y agoShut... Up... You... Faggot...
- chuhnk 13y agoAsk HN: Will anyone be buying Tesla stock when the markets open tomorrow? I'm wondering whether its a good investment moving forward?
- encoderer 13y agoWait for profit takers to bring it down a little but yes, if you're willing to hold for the long term -- 5+ years at least -- I believe in it. I think a $100 price target is not absurd. Of coruse, Tesla is so comically far from becoming a mainstream car company that it's not for the feint of heart. It's not their products that will challenge them I don't think. It's the difficult of scaling a car company. No easy task.
- gfodor 13y agoI'd add it's also probably a good idea to wait for some bad news since the market is probably likely to over-react and anybody still skeptical will see that as an exit point to take profits.
- peterhajas 13y ago> This is Tesla's first profitable quarter. I suppose this isn't factoring in the countless enormous government subsidies. I don't really count this as "profitable".
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- matthewaustin 13y agoAh, well if you get to make up your own definitions of profitable, then I suppose they weren't. But if you use the actual definition of profitable, meaning they had more revenue than expenses in this quarter, then they were profitable.
- jonstjohn 13y agoIf you re-wrote company profits with all the subsidies, tax breaks, etc, factored in, you would see a much different profit landscape across the board.
- changdizzle 13y agoI refer to Elon Musk's tweet on April 25: "Seems to be some stormy weather over in Shortville these days" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/statuses/327446760219889665 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/statuses/327446760219889665
- jtlein 13y agoI guess it's a California thing. You have to believe in global warming (In the mid-west we have had 20 degrees below normal now for 3 months and snow of 14 inches in May). My practical side says the Tesla is nice but if fighting CO2 is your aim you could buy a $20K Honda accord and convert it to run on ammonia ( nearest practical gas to hydrogen). Ammonia is already piped all over the midwest and in contrast to grid power is almost all made from domestic natural gas. And with a loan of $450 million like Musk got I could build a home ammonia generator that takes in grid power to generate hydrogen and using nitrogen from the air. The small ammonia reactor is the only thing that needs to be developed (the hydrogen generator and nitrogen from air products are already off the shelf).
- deelowe 13y agoI think we'll start seeing very high mpg gasoline cars soon. Supercar makers are already demoing electronically controlled pneumatic valves and direct injection and doubly clutch gear boxes are now showing up on family sedans. Direct injection + independently variably valve timing + double clutch close ratio gear boxes + regenerative braking and plug-in hybrids should equate to extremely high mpg for gasoline based vehicles. I agree with the few here that have stated that tesla is in a SV bubble right now. It's the just hip thing to do, similar to the prius situation 8 or so years ago, but with much less volume due to the price point.
- CamperBob2 13y agoInteresting, I didn't know ammonia was all that combustible. Won't NoX emissions be a problem? Also, won't the fact that ammonia is almost stupefyingly toxic be a problem?
- chrisgd 13y agoClimate change can mean snow in May as well as heat in December.
- downandout 13y agoGAAP profit was $11 million. Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits sold to other automakers amounted to approximately $68 million. In other words, taxpayers gave $68 million to Tesla this quarter. Without this taxpayer gift, which will be drastically reduced going forward, they would have posted a loss of $57 million this quarter. Not fantastic.
- jstalin 13y agoIt seems that their business model is entirely dependent on government subsidies. So now that wealth is being transferred from general US taxpayers to the shareholders of Tesla.
- simonh 13y agoConsidering the $17.4Bn bailout of the conventional US car industry a few years ago it's small change. Personally I'd be a little more concerned about the $20Bn per year paid in farm subsidies, to an industry with median household incomes 17% higher than the national average, if I were a US citizen. At least the money going into Tesla is buying the US a lead in the future of automotive technology, instead of going towards further impoverishing third world farmers.
- cheapsteak 13y agoCould you explain how the money other automakers paid Tesla for ZEV credits is paid by taxpayers? Also why would this 'gift' be drastically reduced? I thought ZEV quotas were rising.
- smackfu 13y agoYes, I think the parent may be confusing the ZEV credits with tax credits. Car manufacturers (in California at least) have to make a certain number of cars with low and zero-emissions. For 2012, I think it's 13%. Tesla makes 100% of their cards as ZEV, so they take 87% of their credits and sell them to other manufacturers who don't sell enough low emissions vehicle, or who sell no ZEV. The important point is that these credits were created out of thin air, and don't cost the taxpayers anything. And their goal is to do exactly what they are doing... to get a certain amount of ZEVs vehicles out there, and to give manufacturers a financial reason to sell more, since they don't want to be buying those credits from Tesla.
- goggles99 13y agoI remember when Geo Metro's were popular. They got 50+ MPG. Then the fad ended and... Is Geo still around?
- codex 13y agoWithout the cash from selling California ZEV credits gross margin on the Model S would have actually decreased quarter over quarter. It will be interesting to see how it gets to 25% without ZEV, and whether Tesla needs to sell more stock to finance development of the Model X.