2 ms·

To anyone who owns BRK-B shares (or BRK-A if you have that kind of money), over the next decade your money will likely grow on par with if not at a slightly hig

To anyone who owns BRK-B shares (or BRK-A if you have that kind of money), over the next decade your money will likely grow on par with if not at a slightly higher rate than keeping it in an S&P 500 Index fund. Regardless of board or management changes, BRK will stay a better long term bet than an index fund. Both options have similar amounts of risk.

bitpush 8d ago
How are you this confident about the future?
- IshKebab 8d ago
  Easy, by not understanding it.
bluecalm 8d ago
I hold BRK stocks and I expect it to underperform the market on average (but also be a very good hedge in case of big downturn). BRK is in big part short term treasuries then a stock portfolio then a core business (insurance, energy, rail, manufacturing etc.). While it's reasonable to expect the core business to outperform there is no way the whole thing is a favorite to do so because cash is a big drag.
- throwaway2037 7d ago
  > but also be a very good hedge in case of big downturn Are you aware that BRK cratered during the 2009 stock market crash? During a crash, except gov't bonds, pretty much everything sells off equally. There is a joke on Wall Street after 2009: During a crash, correlation on all assets goes to one (1.0).
UncleOxidant 8d ago
Hasn't done so great since Buffett announced his retirement. Starting to recover lately.
throwaway2037 7d ago
This is a pretty bold claim, but it is HN talking about investments. From here you can compare BRK vs S&P 500 historical performance: https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gspc https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gs... In the last 10 years, their returns are nearly identical. However, each decade that you look back, BRK does better and better. But think about that: It's actually slowing down over the last 50 years. I predict will be equal or less the S&P 500 for the next two decades. BRK hardly invests in anything high tech (including bio-tech). They will be missing out on many hypergrowth opportunities.

bitpush 8d ago

How are you this confident about the future?

IshKebab 8d ago
Easy, by not understanding it.

bluecalm 8d ago

I hold BRK stocks and I expect it to underperform the market on average (but also be a very good hedge in case of big downturn). BRK is in big part short term treasuries then a stock portfolio then a core business (insurance, energy, rail, manufacturing etc.). While it's reasonable to expect the core business to outperform there is no way the whole thing is a favorite to do so because cash is a big drag.

throwaway2037 7d ago
> but also be a very good hedge in case of big downturn Are you aware that BRK cratered during the 2009 stock market crash? During a crash, except gov't bonds, pretty much everything sells off equally. There is a joke on Wall Street after 2009: During a crash, correlation on all assets goes to one (1.0).

UncleOxidant 8d ago

Hasn't done so great since Buffett announced his retirement. Starting to recover lately.

throwaway2037 7d ago

This is a pretty bold claim, but it is HN talking about investments. From here you can compare BRK vs S&P 500 historical performance: https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gspc https://www.alphaspread.com/comparison/nyse/brk.b/vs/indx/gs... In the last 10 years, their returns are nearly identical. However, each decade that you look back, BRK does better and better. But think about that: It's actually slowing down over the last 50 years. I predict will be equal or less the S&P 500 for the next two decades. BRK hardly invests in anything high tech (including bio-tech). They will be missing out on many hypergrowth opportunities.