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> Will AI replace developers? The Stanford data shows a tilt toward seniority rather than mass displacement: entry for 22 to 25 year olds is suffering, older wo

> Will AI replace developers? The Stanford data shows a tilt toward seniority rather than mass displacement: entry for 22 to 25 year olds is suffering, older workers are growing. WEF expects a net gain of 78 million jobs by 2030. As a 42 years old web developper, this situation gives me headaches. I feel both with new superpowers and dangerously threatened. I feel we will need much less developpers and yet I can imagine some years where a developper will be able to handle much larger projects.

vouaobrasil 13d ago
> I feel both with new superpowers and dangerously threatened. In some ways, having a superpower is not all that great because then you are forced by the prisoner's dilemma to use it. And if you think about it, it comes at a cost: a higher mental strain over a long period of time. To use a physical analogy: a workout machine at the gym is very likely to assist you in targeting specific muscles compared to just lifting stuff you need to lift, but it also allows you to push that specific muscle group harder and thus increase the chances of injury to that muscle group precisely because it's so targeted. I think AI is like that with the brain. (I'll add that it's perfectly possible to work out safely at the gym with lots of equipment. But I've spent years at the gym and I've seen a ton of injuries because the temptation to push a specific muscle group hard is there. And, AI is much worse because with AI, there is an economic incentive to push harder, whereas at the gym it's in your best interest to dial back...only sometimes people like to show off to their gym buddies.)
- stephen_cagle 13d ago
  I wonder if LLM's might be closer to the weight belt in terms of lifting? It is a tool that lets you exceed your unassisted limits. If you kept doing the other things you would be no worse for using it, but if you only train with it I am not sure you would be a very well rounded lifter. The weight belt lets you do a few lifts better, at potentially the cost of being weaker than would be required if you did that left unassisted? Might be a bad metaphor honestly. Aside (shower thought): A little of a tangent, but I have always felt that the weight belt is kind of odd in that it has become completely accepted to use one for the deadlift and squat. Like, why did we decide that this one form of brace is acceptable but others enhancements are not "real" weightlifting? Why not an incline plane? Why not a pulley? I'm not at all arguing for or against the usage of the weight belt. I just find it odd that it has become so accepted; seems curious how we decided to draw the line here and not there.
- ipsod 13d ago
  I don't get that experience at all. LLM's both relieve burden and improve speed. The only trouble I have with AI is when I run out. That, and I miss coding... but... this new thing is its own puzzle, and I still do lots of pseudo-code and such, to talk to the AI, which kind of scratches the itch.
- Synthetic7346 13d ago
  What's the AI equivalent of calisthenics, so you can train multiple muscle groups at once and reduce risk of injury?
Maxion 13d ago
I'm pretty convinced that manual coding will be done by late 2027 for at least webdev. At that point the optimal workflow will be coders controlling agents. Not too far after it will be coders controlling agents who control agents who do the work. We're in for a very tumultuous few years
- codenesium 13d ago
  It's not done now? I haven't written code in months.
  - aerodexis 13d ago
    yea - but did you read it?
  - orangedog 13d ago
    The huge apps that my coworkers build out with minimal human input makes me scared to be a web dev in this environment. Just way too much can get automated.
    - dakolli 13d ago
      Yeah completely unmaintainable code that cant handle more than 1k users before it collapses on itself. And quite probably so ugly its literally impossible to use.
      - orangedog 13d ago
        That only matters if you need to support 1k users. Tons of software doesn't and if you can spit out a web app in a few hours a lot of companies are going to do that. I'm sure there is still a pot for really high quality stuff but it's a tradeoff a lot of companies don't care. But the interfaces - they aren't ugly, they're very usable and complete, which is the main reason I think web dev is in trouble. It'd take me 10x the time to do it myself.
        13d ago
deleted 13d ago
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ozgrakkurt 13d ago
Wasn’t this already the trend before LLMs? I remember getting primarily tech lead or other high-senior position listings when doing job searches since at least a couple years

vouaobrasil 13d ago

> I feel both with new superpowers and dangerously threatened. In some ways, having a superpower is not all that great because then you are forced by the prisoner's dilemma to use it. And if you think about it, it comes at a cost: a higher mental strain over a long period of time. To use a physical analogy: a workout machine at the gym is very likely to assist you in targeting specific muscles compared to just lifting stuff you need to lift, but it also allows you to push that specific muscle group harder and thus increase the chances of injury to that muscle group precisely because it's so targeted. I think AI is like that with the brain. (I'll add that it's perfectly possible to work out safely at the gym with lots of equipment. But I've spent years at the gym and I've seen a ton of injuries because the temptation to push a specific muscle group hard is there. And, AI is much worse because with AI, there is an economic incentive to push harder, whereas at the gym it's in your best interest to dial back...only sometimes people like to show off to their gym buddies.)

stephen_cagle 13d ago
I wonder if LLM's might be closer to the weight belt in terms of lifting? It is a tool that lets you exceed your unassisted limits. If you kept doing the other things you would be no worse for using it, but if you only train with it I am not sure you would be a very well rounded lifter. The weight belt lets you do a few lifts better, at potentially the cost of being weaker than would be required if you did that left unassisted? Might be a bad metaphor honestly. Aside (shower thought): A little of a tangent, but I have always felt that the weight belt is kind of odd in that it has become completely accepted to use one for the deadlift and squat. Like, why did we decide that this one form of brace is acceptable but others enhancements are not "real" weightlifting? Why not an incline plane? Why not a pulley? I'm not at all arguing for or against the usage of the weight belt. I just find it odd that it has become so accepted; seems curious how we decided to draw the line here and not there.
ipsod 13d ago
I don't get that experience at all. LLM's both relieve burden and improve speed. The only trouble I have with AI is when I run out. That, and I miss coding... but... this new thing is its own puzzle, and I still do lots of pseudo-code and such, to talk to the AI, which kind of scratches the itch.
Synthetic7346 13d ago
What's the AI equivalent of calisthenics, so you can train multiple muscle groups at once and reduce risk of injury?

Maxion 13d ago

I'm pretty convinced that manual coding will be done by late 2027 for at least webdev. At that point the optimal workflow will be coders controlling agents. Not too far after it will be coders controlling agents who control agents who do the work. We're in for a very tumultuous few years

codenesium 13d ago
It's not done now? I haven't written code in months.
- aerodexis 13d ago
  yea - but did you read it?
- orangedog 13d ago
  The huge apps that my coworkers build out with minimal human input makes me scared to be a web dev in this environment. Just way too much can get automated.
  - dakolli 13d ago
    Yeah completely unmaintainable code that cant handle more than 1k users before it collapses on itself. And quite probably so ugly its literally impossible to use.
    - orangedog 13d ago
      That only matters if you need to support 1k users. Tons of software doesn't and if you can spit out a web app in a few hours a lot of companies are going to do that. I'm sure there is still a pot for really high quality stuff but it's a tradeoff a lot of companies don't care. But the interfaces - they aren't ugly, they're very usable and complete, which is the main reason I think web dev is in trouble. It'd take me 10x the time to do it myself.
      - 13d ago

deleted 13d ago

[deleted]

ozgrakkurt 13d ago

Wasn’t this already the trend before LLMs? I remember getting primarily tech lead or other high-senior position listings when doing job searches since at least a couple years