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Nike's destruction over the past 5 years was really surprised and until I read up about the whole "direct to consumer" fiasco it really helped me understand ano

Nike's destruction over the past 5 years was really surprised and until I read up about the whole "direct to consumer" fiasco it really helped me understand another trend I was a bit confused about. About 2-3 years, it felt like, out of nowhere everyone was wearing Hoka and On brand sneakers. In my entire life it felt like the Nike/Adidas duopoly was unbreakable, and then it felt suddenly that Hoka was everywhere. While Hoka probably executed extremely well, I imagine it was an incredibly lucky position Hoka found themselves in when all those retailers had to replace Nike with something. Maybe even allbirds would be in a better position today had they launched 3-4 years later. Edit: I just looked it up and it seems both Hoka and On were founded before Allbirds. Seems allbirds imploded (~2021), just as Nike was ceding all their retail space (also around 2021). Had they had another year, maybe they wouldn't have had to pivot into an AI datacenter company.

sph 12d ago
FWIW I have never heard or seen the Hoka brand in my life until now. I wouldn’t even try to google what On looks like. The first time I heard about Allbirds is when they pivoted to AI. We all live in our own bubbles.
- harshalizee 12d ago
  Today, you're one of the lucky 10000![1] For me personally, On shoes are probably the most comfortable pairs I've ever owned. Their waterproof sneakers are the only ones I've ever had that's actually fully waterproof. If you're looking for a decent pair of sneakers you should at least take a look at their Cloud line. [1] https://xkcd.com/1053/ https://xkcd.com/1053/
  - omnimus 12d ago
    On shoes are also very ugly. I don't think they have a single pair that has any style. I would love to try them but it looks like shoes for retirees.
    - dpark 12d ago
      > it looks like shoes for retirees This is in style now. My tween daughter and her peers all own shoes that look geriatric to my eyes. I see teenagers walking around in New Balance shoes that look like my dad would have owned them 20 years ago.
      - walthamstow 12d ago
        The film Crazy Stupid Love features Ryan Gosling telling Steve Carrell he dresses like a stale 40-something divorcee then throwing his New Balance meshy running sneakers off the balcony of the mall. That was 2011.
      - omnimus 12d ago
        This is actually not at all style of On shoes. The New Balance / Adidas / Nike 90s "dad shoes" have been cool for almost a decade now (Balenciaga released their "dad" sneaker in 2016). On shoes look like shoes for retirees right now. Teenagers don't wear On shoes.
        dpark 12d ago
        Fair. The kids are buying dad shoes from 20 years ago. On looks like dad shoes from right now.
    - dublinben 12d ago
      This model[0] is touted as one of their top three "bestsellers" and is completely unobjectionable, as far as contemporary sneakers go. It's a plain white, leather-looking tennis shoe that doesn't even have their brand's stupid characteristic sole that collects gravel. Even typically goofy looking Hoka will sell you something appropriate for all-day work wear, anti-slip soles and all.[1] It comes in black, white, and monochrome grey. Nike doesn't seem capable of making a shoe that looks like a normal person could wear it in real life. Most of them look more appropriate for a space station than planet earth. [0] https://www.on.com/en-us/products/the-roger-advantage-m-3mf3064/mens/white-white-shoes-3MF30641200 https://www.on.com/en-us/products/the-roger-advantage-m-3mf3... [1] https://www.hoka.com/en/us/mens-recovery-comfort-shoes/bondi-sr/1110520.html?dwvar_1110520_color=BBLC&dwvar_1110520_width=Regular https://www.hoka.com/en/us/mens-recovery-comfort-shoes/bondi...
- Bishonen88 12d ago
  A 5min 'best running shoes' session would mention both Hokas, ON's etc. That's an anecdote, not a bubble in my opinion. I have a counterexample where I have not worn any Hoka's but have seen/known of them. Have multiple pairs of On shoes.
- ivankra 12d ago
  YMMV but Hoka Bondi is the most comfortable pair of sneakers I've ever had in my life. I'm not going back to Nike. Haven't heard/seen much of them until this year too though.
  - bogdan 12d ago
    And gaviota is best for wide feet. They are really comfy
    - sph 12d ago
      Well, I guess I inadvertently got great recommendations for running shoes with my ignorance (and wide feet). Thanks. Cunningham’s Law strikes again.
- tverbeure 12d ago
  Never heard of Hoka either, so I asked my wife just now: “oh yes, I have a pair.”
- dkdbejwi383 12d ago
  Most races I've participated in or spectated at in the last few years you'd see Hoka on at least half the runners' feet.
- indigovole 12d ago
  On's commitment to avoiding search clicks goes beyond their name. Their logo deliberately looks more like 'qn' or 'nq' than 'on'. I _had_ a pair and couldn't remember or figure who made it for a while. they did lock up their domain name, which must have taken some doing.
- gregdeon 12d ago
  Interesting! Hoka is extremely popular in my circles. They make excellent running shoes for beginners and decent running shoes for more serious athletes. They're also very popular among folks like service workers and nurses who are on their feet all day. I was very sad to find that they don't fit my feet well.
allthetime 12d ago
Allbirds never made serious running shoes. Hoka grew out of the ultra running scene and broadened their offering.. On are European and went hard with their unusual sole design.
- throwaway2037 12d ago
  Hoka has a fairly unusual corporate history. They were founded in 2009 in Annecy, France. (Yeah, read that twice. No hate on Annecy, but that is a mega brand being started from a tiny French city!) Then in 2013, they were acquired by California-based Deckers Brands which is also the owner of UGG and Teva. The real question: How did they become the Lululemon of casual sneakers? Just like lots of women who don't do yoga and barely attend the gym, they cannot get enough Lululemon in their wardrobe. The same can be said for Hoka running shoes: All kinds of normies that barely exercise wear them anywhere and always.
  - rjsw 12d ago
    Hoka was founded by former Salomon employees, why would they want to move from Annecy?
    - arethuza 12d ago
      Indeed, Annecy is gorgeous and pretty close to some of the largest ski areas on the planet?
      - throwaway2037 12d ago
        Yeah, I totally agree. If I could found a 100M USD+ business from Annecy, that would be heaven on Earth!
  - baoluofu 12d ago
    I see a lot more of ON being the sneaker brand for people who don't look like they exercise that much. I exercise regularly and got Hoka Clifton 10s for running and daily walking and they are hands-down the best shoes I have had for that purpose. So much so that I immediately bought a second pair so I can alternate between them each day to hopefully keep them lasting longer. I tried on loads of different brands in the running shop and the Clifton 10 wides were definitely the best for my feet, despite my initial assumption that I would prefer ON cloud runners.
milchek 12d ago
Is this a US thing? In Australia all sports/shoe retailers have been stocking Nike the whole time. If I understand correctly folks are saying in the US Nike gave up its retail shelf space in favour of their own stores and online?
- dpark 12d ago
  Can’t speak for worldwide, but in the US Nike decided to aim for exclusivity and basically pulled their shoes from a ton of retailers. It went… not how they hoped.
  - darkwater 12d ago
    It would be great and funny to have access to the internal presentation about why they needed to pursue that and all the benefits. That kind of business decks are always so plastered with wishful thinking that really makes me wonder how business people can keep deceiving themselves like that in every single company they work.
    - zaptheimpaler 12d ago
      Probably went something like - we need infinite growth to appease the stock market morons - we can’t raise prices any more for our shoes - what if we cut out the middlemen retail stores and disintermediated to save money - we will be digital native, COVID is here, the world is digital - RIP.
      - motoxpro 12d ago
        Also, ironically, the pitch was supposed to be a win win: If we cut out the middleman and stop spending so much on sponsoring athletes and sports, we can pass those savings on to customers, bringing us more sales at lower cost to consumers and higher margin for us because our cost structure is lower. Turns out people don't always want lower-priced products.
        12d ago
omnimus 12d ago
Whats surprising to me is that all the brands you mentioned are just so ugly and simply not cool. Nike tries to position itself as Apple of sports but it probably doesn't work that well outside of high tech market because there are still many brands doing the high end at leas as well as them.
- freetime2 12d ago
  Probably because fitness-conscious (i.e. attractive) people started wearing them. And they are expensive enough to show status. Crazy thick soles have become pretty normalized recently. But I remember when I first bought my Hokas I felt a bit like I was wearing orthopedic shoes like my grandma used to wear. Now I wouldn’t think twice about wearing them out.
  - jahller 12d ago
    it's really interesting how Nikes style of shoes became unfashionable in the past 5-6 years. is it their focus on basketball and fitness shoes?
    - deleted 12d ago
      [deleted]
    - ericmay 12d ago
      I’m not quite sure but Nike really blew up back in the day with a focus on basketball via the Nike Jordan/Air Force One. More recently I just don’t understand their product line up. If I click on Men’s in the US there are over 700 shoes. How do I even pick? Hello, earth to Nike. Nike is a Greek god. Maybe lean in to that a bit more? Who is buying turds like this? https://www.nike.com/t/ava-edge-mens-shoes-8EA9wWpq/IM1973-004 https://www.nike.com/t/ava-edge-mens-shoes-8EA9wWpq/IM1973-0... [cherry-picked example but id say half their shoes follow this awful design pattern] Oh I get it “Inspired by the geometry of modern cities” they’re confused about good design and taking a hint from other dead brands like Hugo Boss or Burberry Outlet or maybe even Armani Exchange! That’s why richfluencers are buying ON and Hoka and Vuroi and Lululemon still.
mamonster 12d ago
>until I read up about the whole "direct to consumer" fiasco it really helped me understand another trend I was a bit confused about. In Switzerland, every decent sports store now has a whole treadmill with some sort of gait analysis thing and a dedicated guy that is going to pick a shoe for you based on that + your running level. Anecdotal evidence, but 80% of the time I see someone buying running shoes in Ochsner they end up using the treadmill and getting advice from the guy, and a lot of the time it they end up getting Hokas.
- mahrain 12d ago
  Having gone through this process what surprised me was that they were advising along brand lines: “Brooks are sturdy, ASICS are narrow shoes, Hoka have thick soles and a lot of bounce”. They didn’t have differentiation within a same brand.
  - yolo3000 12d ago
    No mention of heel drop? I thought Hoka's were in the low heel drop category. Or maybe it's not a thing anymore
    - chantepierre 12d ago
      Low-ish (4 to 6mm) but not really advertised.
    - arlattimore 12d ago
      It's a thing for sure, maybe just not screamed about. If you run in a shoe that is 10mm+ and then go to a 0mm like an Altra - it is wild how different it feels.
      - yolo3000 12d ago
        Yup, Nike and Asics were like 10mm, while Hoka and other cool brands are lower. Back when I was running this was the main differentiator
  - 12d ago
Onavo 12d ago
What's the best generic allbirds style shoe? I refuse to play for the branding premium.
legitster 12d ago
> In my entire life it felt like the Nike/Adidas duopoly was unbreakable, and then it felt suddenly that Hoka was everywhere. Man, I'm in such different circles than everyone. I've never heard of Hoka and I don't know any sneakerheads. Everyone I know is into Keens, Toms, or Sketchers.
- prawn 12d ago
  Hoka is everywhere amongst runners in Australia; it got noticeable marketshare very quickly. I think they actively do trial sessions with public running groups?
  - aembleton 12d ago
    > I think they actively do trial sessions with public running groups? Probably, they certainly do in the UK
  - jerlam 12d ago
    Many shoe manufacturers do this with running groups, it's good marketing. Unfortunately my oddly-shaped feet means I've had more bad than good experiences when trying to run a few miles in new shoes.
- boogieknite 12d ago
  i think one can be in Sketchers but who is into Sketchers?
  - freetime2 12d ago
    I have some Skechers slip-ins that I love. I live in Japan where you have to take off/put on shoes all the time at home, restuarants, doctors/dentists, gyms, etc, so they are incredibly convenient. Also very comfortable, and constructed about as well as a pair of Nikes costing twice as much. I am unapologetically into Skechers. Though I do try to seek out the ones without that big ugly "S" on the side.
    - 12d ago
jimbob45 12d ago
The problem with shoes is that there figuratively (and literally) is no one-size-fits-all. There are several elements of a shoe that can wreck your experience with it without you understanding why. - Heel drop, as others have said, can destroy your Achilles if you go too low. Too high and you can exacerbate hip issues. - Big feet? If your manufacturer doesn’t offer wide versions, you’re going to have a bad time. You still might if they only expand the upper without actually widening the lower (Nike pulls this shit). - Running on weird, slick surfaces? Better hope you have strong grip and traction (they’re not all equal by any stretch) - Running in a hot climate? Better hope for a breathable shoe or your blisters will wreck you. - Need stability elements? Or a carbon plate? Better hope you bought a stability shoe! Also keep in mind that there is research that those things can wreck your foot health long-term. - Ugh, I’m so confused, I’ll just get the most popular running shoe out there, the Nike Pegasus! Well, you might be in for a nasty surprise when you learn that it’s the only modern shoe that still contains literal airbags. Step on bark chips the wrong way and your shoe might pop! And that’s all before you get started on colorways. The idea that shoes are all equally good for everyone is as outdated as the idea that you can swap two people’s Chipotle orders and no one will notice.
weinzierl 12d ago
"In my entire life it felt like the Nike/Adidas duopoly was unbreakable, and then it felt suddenly that Hoka was everywhere." You mention Adidas as if they were in the same boat with Nike. While Adidas suffered from the Kanye West disaster this was a one time blunder and they rebound quickly. in Europe I see On on the rise too, but Adidas is omnipresent.
- ahartmetz 12d ago
  AFAIK, Adidas has been more niche* in the US, which makes sense given its German origin. I'm German and I don't recall a time when Adidas wasn't either #1 or #2 here. Kanye West barely registered. * It's reportedly associated with hip hop culture, for example. Widely popular brands don't have such specific associations.
  - rc5150 12d ago
    "It's reportedly associated with hip hop culture" Yeah about 35 years ago.
- nemothekid 12d ago
  In the US, Nike/Adidas were #1 and #2. Thats all I meant - I haven't seen any change in Adidas, if anything they are even more popular now and are probably the #1 sneaker brand I see in San Francisco. The Samba is incredibly popular, it's as salient to me as the "air force 1" used to be.
  - ggregoire 12d ago
    The Adizero is incredibly popular among runners too
throwawayffffas 12d ago
I went to one of Nike's flagship store in a major global city in a major retail street a few years ago. It was like a nightclub with very few shoes on a couple of walls and a couple on a pedestal. It was impossible to actually shop there. It was more akin to a branding showcase than an actual store.
- ButlerianJihad 12d ago
  There is a retail shopping mall here; it is not an outlet mall, but a Nike Store opened up and it feels like an outlet. It was bustling with a lot of people milling around. There were bags available at the front, which I thought were durable totes for sale, but turned out that they were shopping bags to hold your pre-purchase items? There were rows and rows of shoes to try, and a salesman was helping me for a while, but after trying 3 pairs I just got the feeling that the store was a dumping ground for the odd styles and odd sizes, and having figured out which size fit me, I left all the shoes there, and only purchased a lanyard, which was at least $25.
- sidewndr46 12d ago
  I saw this too. It felt like where corporate would showcase their shoes to a potential corporate merger or acquisition. Real shoe stores have huge inventory across dozens of specific shoes.
iamben 12d ago
Allbirds were just dreadfully uncool. Basically shoes manufactured for tech bros? Even with another 5 years, I'm not sure they would have taken the market Hoka and On did.
- jareklupinski 12d ago
  yea but so comfortable :( no other shoe could carry my feet for miles with no outwardly visible branding
jarym 12d ago
We keep reading different variations of the same story over and over - different companies and industries but make the same fatal mistakes. 1) Let the 'spreadsheet people' take over, every decision is now allegedly based on 'data' 2) Kill the innovation because they can’t put a $ value on it 3) Rake in a few years of fast profits and soak in glory 4) Company implodes, CEO rides into the sunset, board that should have protected the company somehow largely intact. Data wasn't the killer. Stupidity, greed and shortsightedness in roughly equal parts usually are.
- Frieren 12d ago
  > Data wasn't the killer. "Past performance does not guarantee future results" and yet people treats data as a crystal ball that can predict the future. Data can help a company to decide what to do next week with little though and great results. It cannot set a long-term strategy without a lot of interpretation, guessing and adaptability. That same very good short-term decision may have been the first step towards destruction.
- sushibowl 12d ago
  This is called The McNamara fallacy (if it can't be measured, it's not important). This and Goodhart's law are the bane of pure data-driven decision making.
  - hammock 12d ago
    There are some important corollaries to McNamara that need to be articulated. Something like “If you can’t measure it, we still know it’s important, we’re not idiots, McNamara was imprecisely defined in its common form” Yet at the same time, “If you can measure it, you can convince enough people it’s the only thing that’s important and then overfit to it”
  - bluefirebrand 12d ago
    My Dad was basically a tool salesman for most of my life. He was really, really good at it. and I don't know if he ever measured anything. He just talked to people and tried his best to give people what they say they want Crazy how successful he has been off of just that simple approach. It's something that drives me nuts about a lot of current product design strategies. Yes, sure. You can occasionally have a Steve Jobs style product visionary who delivers something that people never imagined But for most of us I think we'd see a lot more success just talking to customers and delivering what they ask for, instead of filtering thier thoughts through a "product owner" who winds up having us build something else My experience with a lot of current product direction advice is along the lines of "don't just give them what they ask for, because they don't know what they want. You have to figure out what they want and deliver that instead". I think this is a really stupid approach. If you are talking to people who "don't know what they want", then you have to find different people to talk to. In my experience the best ideas come from people who know exactly what they want. The job of product should be to find those people and ask them, not to talk to the wrong people and guess at what they "really want"
DoneWithAllThat 12d ago
Hoka is big in the running market but that’s basically all. Same with New Balance. I think where Hoka got lucky was with the explosion of popularity of running and Nike failing to understand their need to offer a fashion running product not just a performance running product. Hoka did and reaped massive rewards as a result.
- ifwinterco 12d ago
  New Balance were Dad shoes 10 years ago but somehow they are now fashionable in the UK (also Asics). I'd literally never heard of Hoka or On in my life though before this thread and they do not look fashionable
bellgrove 12d ago
Hoka makes excellent running shoes. How they managed to convince people they’re great every day shoes is a bit of a mystery to me.
JumpCrisscross 12d ago
> Nike's destruction over the past 5 years was really surprised Wendover did a good overview of Nike's strategic implosion a few months ago [1]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGhy62UZnbg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGhy62UZnbg
JeremyNT 12d ago
Hoka (like many other brands with running lineages) was careful not to devalue its brand. Nike has some quality products, but they also consistently released garbage products and stamped a swoosh on them. So there's the squeeze: people who want quality can go to a brand that's actually known for quality and avoid the guessing game, people who want garbage can get cheaper garbage drop shipped from China.
- coffeebeqn 12d ago
  They also hiked their prices on things like Jordan’s until they’re in a new price category $200+ and against really quite high quality shoes
BobAliceInATree 12d ago
Allbirds didn't really "pivot" into an AI datacenter. They sold off their shoe business at firesale to another company, which will still make & sell the shoes. Then the name and public listing remaining was basically a shell, and basically SPACed into the AI datacenter company with more funding.
rawoke083600 12d ago
Interesting and not saying you wrong lol. I live in South Africa (cape town), a modernish city by modern standards, but ive never heard of Hoka nor On Brand. In some ways that should be good news to them as clearly some untapped markets still
DivingForGold 12d ago
Go Woke - - - Go Broke.

sph 12d ago

FWIW I have never heard or seen the Hoka brand in my life until now. I wouldn’t even try to google what On looks like. The first time I heard about Allbirds is when they pivoted to AI. We all live in our own bubbles.

harshalizee 12d ago
Today, you're one of the lucky 10000![1] For me personally, On shoes are probably the most comfortable pairs I've ever owned. Their waterproof sneakers are the only ones I've ever had that's actually fully waterproof. If you're looking for a decent pair of sneakers you should at least take a look at their Cloud line. [1] https://xkcd.com/1053/ https://xkcd.com/1053/
- omnimus 12d ago
  On shoes are also very ugly. I don't think they have a single pair that has any style. I would love to try them but it looks like shoes for retirees.
  - dpark 12d ago
    > it looks like shoes for retirees This is in style now. My tween daughter and her peers all own shoes that look geriatric to my eyes. I see teenagers walking around in New Balance shoes that look like my dad would have owned them 20 years ago.
    - walthamstow 12d ago
      The film Crazy Stupid Love features Ryan Gosling telling Steve Carrell he dresses like a stale 40-something divorcee then throwing his New Balance meshy running sneakers off the balcony of the mall. That was 2011.
    - omnimus 12d ago
      This is actually not at all style of On shoes. The New Balance / Adidas / Nike 90s "dad shoes" have been cool for almost a decade now (Balenciaga released their "dad" sneaker in 2016). On shoes look like shoes for retirees right now. Teenagers don't wear On shoes.
      - dpark 12d ago
        Fair. The kids are buying dad shoes from 20 years ago. On looks like dad shoes from right now.
  - dublinben 12d ago
    This model[0] is touted as one of their top three "bestsellers" and is completely unobjectionable, as far as contemporary sneakers go. It's a plain white, leather-looking tennis shoe that doesn't even have their brand's stupid characteristic sole that collects gravel. Even typically goofy looking Hoka will sell you something appropriate for all-day work wear, anti-slip soles and all.[1] It comes in black, white, and monochrome grey. Nike doesn't seem capable of making a shoe that looks like a normal person could wear it in real life. Most of them look more appropriate for a space station than planet earth. [0] https://www.on.com/en-us/products/the-roger-advantage-m-3mf3064/mens/white-white-shoes-3MF30641200 https://www.on.com/en-us/products/the-roger-advantage-m-3mf3... [1] https://www.hoka.com/en/us/mens-recovery-comfort-shoes/bondi-sr/1110520.html?dwvar_1110520_color=BBLC&dwvar_1110520_width=Regular https://www.hoka.com/en/us/mens-recovery-comfort-shoes/bondi...
Bishonen88 12d ago
A 5min 'best running shoes' session would mention both Hokas, ON's etc. That's an anecdote, not a bubble in my opinion. I have a counterexample where I have not worn any Hoka's but have seen/known of them. Have multiple pairs of On shoes.
ivankra 12d ago
YMMV but Hoka Bondi is the most comfortable pair of sneakers I've ever had in my life. I'm not going back to Nike. Haven't heard/seen much of them until this year too though.
- bogdan 12d ago
  And gaviota is best for wide feet. They are really comfy
  - sph 12d ago
    Well, I guess I inadvertently got great recommendations for running shoes with my ignorance (and wide feet). Thanks. Cunningham’s Law strikes again.
tverbeure 12d ago
Never heard of Hoka either, so I asked my wife just now: “oh yes, I have a pair.”
dkdbejwi383 12d ago
Most races I've participated in or spectated at in the last few years you'd see Hoka on at least half the runners' feet.
indigovole 12d ago
On's commitment to avoiding search clicks goes beyond their name. Their logo deliberately looks more like 'qn' or 'nq' than 'on'. I _had_ a pair and couldn't remember or figure who made it for a while. they did lock up their domain name, which must have taken some doing.
gregdeon 12d ago
Interesting! Hoka is extremely popular in my circles. They make excellent running shoes for beginners and decent running shoes for more serious athletes. They're also very popular among folks like service workers and nurses who are on their feet all day. I was very sad to find that they don't fit my feet well.

allthetime 12d ago

Allbirds never made serious running shoes. Hoka grew out of the ultra running scene and broadened their offering.. On are European and went hard with their unusual sole design.

throwaway2037 12d ago
Hoka has a fairly unusual corporate history. They were founded in 2009 in Annecy, France. (Yeah, read that twice. No hate on Annecy, but that is a mega brand being started from a tiny French city!) Then in 2013, they were acquired by California-based Deckers Brands which is also the owner of UGG and Teva. The real question: How did they become the Lululemon of casual sneakers? Just like lots of women who don't do yoga and barely attend the gym, they cannot get enough Lululemon in their wardrobe. The same can be said for Hoka running shoes: All kinds of normies that barely exercise wear them anywhere and always.
- rjsw 12d ago
  Hoka was founded by former Salomon employees, why would they want to move from Annecy?
  - arethuza 12d ago
    Indeed, Annecy is gorgeous and pretty close to some of the largest ski areas on the planet?
    - throwaway2037 12d ago
      Yeah, I totally agree. If I could found a 100M USD+ business from Annecy, that would be heaven on Earth!
- baoluofu 12d ago
  I see a lot more of ON being the sneaker brand for people who don't look like they exercise that much. I exercise regularly and got Hoka Clifton 10s for running and daily walking and they are hands-down the best shoes I have had for that purpose. So much so that I immediately bought a second pair so I can alternate between them each day to hopefully keep them lasting longer. I tried on loads of different brands in the running shop and the Clifton 10 wides were definitely the best for my feet, despite my initial assumption that I would prefer ON cloud runners.

milchek 12d ago

Is this a US thing? In Australia all sports/shoe retailers have been stocking Nike the whole time. If I understand correctly folks are saying in the US Nike gave up its retail shelf space in favour of their own stores and online?

dpark 12d ago
Can’t speak for worldwide, but in the US Nike decided to aim for exclusivity and basically pulled their shoes from a ton of retailers. It went… not how they hoped.
- darkwater 12d ago
  It would be great and funny to have access to the internal presentation about why they needed to pursue that and all the benefits. That kind of business decks are always so plastered with wishful thinking that really makes me wonder how business people can keep deceiving themselves like that in every single company they work.
  - zaptheimpaler 12d ago
    Probably went something like - we need infinite growth to appease the stock market morons - we can’t raise prices any more for our shoes - what if we cut out the middlemen retail stores and disintermediated to save money - we will be digital native, COVID is here, the world is digital - RIP.
    - motoxpro 12d ago
      Also, ironically, the pitch was supposed to be a win win: If we cut out the middleman and stop spending so much on sponsoring athletes and sports, we can pass those savings on to customers, bringing us more sales at lower cost to consumers and higher margin for us because our cost structure is lower. Turns out people don't always want lower-priced products.
      - 12d ago

omnimus 12d ago

Whats surprising to me is that all the brands you mentioned are just so ugly and simply not cool. Nike tries to position itself as Apple of sports but it probably doesn't work that well outside of high tech market because there are still many brands doing the high end at leas as well as them.

freetime2 12d ago
Probably because fitness-conscious (i.e. attractive) people started wearing them. And they are expensive enough to show status. Crazy thick soles have become pretty normalized recently. But I remember when I first bought my Hokas I felt a bit like I was wearing orthopedic shoes like my grandma used to wear. Now I wouldn’t think twice about wearing them out.
- jahller 12d ago
  it's really interesting how Nikes style of shoes became unfashionable in the past 5-6 years. is it their focus on basketball and fitness shoes?
  - deleted 12d ago
    [deleted]
  - ericmay 12d ago
    I’m not quite sure but Nike really blew up back in the day with a focus on basketball via the Nike Jordan/Air Force One. More recently I just don’t understand their product line up. If I click on Men’s in the US there are over 700 shoes. How do I even pick? Hello, earth to Nike. Nike is a Greek god. Maybe lean in to that a bit more? Who is buying turds like this? https://www.nike.com/t/ava-edge-mens-shoes-8EA9wWpq/IM1973-004 https://www.nike.com/t/ava-edge-mens-shoes-8EA9wWpq/IM1973-0... [cherry-picked example but id say half their shoes follow this awful design pattern] Oh I get it “Inspired by the geometry of modern cities” they’re confused about good design and taking a hint from other dead brands like Hugo Boss or Burberry Outlet or maybe even Armani Exchange! That’s why richfluencers are buying ON and Hoka and Vuroi and Lululemon still.

mamonster 12d ago

>until I read up about the whole "direct to consumer" fiasco it really helped me understand another trend I was a bit confused about. In Switzerland, every decent sports store now has a whole treadmill with some sort of gait analysis thing and a dedicated guy that is going to pick a shoe for you based on that + your running level. Anecdotal evidence, but 80% of the time I see someone buying running shoes in Ochsner they end up using the treadmill and getting advice from the guy, and a lot of the time it they end up getting Hokas.

mahrain 12d ago
Having gone through this process what surprised me was that they were advising along brand lines: “Brooks are sturdy, ASICS are narrow shoes, Hoka have thick soles and a lot of bounce”. They didn’t have differentiation within a same brand.
- yolo3000 12d ago
  No mention of heel drop? I thought Hoka's were in the low heel drop category. Or maybe it's not a thing anymore
  - chantepierre 12d ago
    Low-ish (4 to 6mm) but not really advertised.
  - arlattimore 12d ago
    It's a thing for sure, maybe just not screamed about. If you run in a shoe that is 10mm+ and then go to a 0mm like an Altra - it is wild how different it feels.
    - yolo3000 12d ago
      Yup, Nike and Asics were like 10mm, while Hoka and other cool brands are lower. Back when I was running this was the main differentiator
- 12d ago

Onavo 12d ago

What's the best generic allbirds style shoe? I refuse to play for the branding premium.

legitster 12d ago

> In my entire life it felt like the Nike/Adidas duopoly was unbreakable, and then it felt suddenly that Hoka was everywhere. Man, I'm in such different circles than everyone. I've never heard of Hoka and I don't know any sneakerheads. Everyone I know is into Keens, Toms, or Sketchers.

prawn 12d ago
Hoka is everywhere amongst runners in Australia; it got noticeable marketshare very quickly. I think they actively do trial sessions with public running groups?
- aembleton 12d ago
  > I think they actively do trial sessions with public running groups? Probably, they certainly do in the UK
- jerlam 12d ago
  Many shoe manufacturers do this with running groups, it's good marketing. Unfortunately my oddly-shaped feet means I've had more bad than good experiences when trying to run a few miles in new shoes.
boogieknite 12d ago
i think one can be in Sketchers but who is into Sketchers?
- freetime2 12d ago
  I have some Skechers slip-ins that I love. I live in Japan where you have to take off/put on shoes all the time at home, restuarants, doctors/dentists, gyms, etc, so they are incredibly convenient. Also very comfortable, and constructed about as well as a pair of Nikes costing twice as much. I am unapologetically into Skechers. Though I do try to seek out the ones without that big ugly "S" on the side.
  - 12d ago

jimbob45 12d ago

The problem with shoes is that there figuratively (and literally) is no one-size-fits-all. There are several elements of a shoe that can wreck your experience with it without you understanding why. - Heel drop, as others have said, can destroy your Achilles if you go too low. Too high and you can exacerbate hip issues. - Big feet? If your manufacturer doesn’t offer wide versions, you’re going to have a bad time. You still might if they only expand the upper without actually widening the lower (Nike pulls this shit). - Running on weird, slick surfaces? Better hope you have strong grip and traction (they’re not all equal by any stretch) - Running in a hot climate? Better hope for a breathable shoe or your blisters will wreck you. - Need stability elements? Or a carbon plate? Better hope you bought a stability shoe! Also keep in mind that there is research that those things can wreck your foot health long-term. - Ugh, I’m so confused, I’ll just get the most popular running shoe out there, the Nike Pegasus! Well, you might be in for a nasty surprise when you learn that it’s the only modern shoe that still contains literal airbags. Step on bark chips the wrong way and your shoe might pop! And that’s all before you get started on colorways. The idea that shoes are all equally good for everyone is as outdated as the idea that you can swap two people’s Chipotle orders and no one will notice.

weinzierl 12d ago

"In my entire life it felt like the Nike/Adidas duopoly was unbreakable, and then it felt suddenly that Hoka was everywhere." You mention Adidas as if they were in the same boat with Nike. While Adidas suffered from the Kanye West disaster this was a one time blunder and they rebound quickly. in Europe I see On on the rise too, but Adidas is omnipresent.

ahartmetz 12d ago
AFAIK, Adidas has been more niche* in the US, which makes sense given its German origin. I'm German and I don't recall a time when Adidas wasn't either #1 or #2 here. Kanye West barely registered. * It's reportedly associated with hip hop culture, for example. Widely popular brands don't have such specific associations.
- rc5150 12d ago
  "It's reportedly associated with hip hop culture" Yeah about 35 years ago.
nemothekid 12d ago
In the US, Nike/Adidas were #1 and #2. Thats all I meant - I haven't seen any change in Adidas, if anything they are even more popular now and are probably the #1 sneaker brand I see in San Francisco. The Samba is incredibly popular, it's as salient to me as the "air force 1" used to be.
- ggregoire 12d ago
  The Adizero is incredibly popular among runners too

throwawayffffas 12d ago

I went to one of Nike's flagship store in a major global city in a major retail street a few years ago. It was like a nightclub with very few shoes on a couple of walls and a couple on a pedestal. It was impossible to actually shop there. It was more akin to a branding showcase than an actual store.

ButlerianJihad 12d ago
There is a retail shopping mall here; it is not an outlet mall, but a Nike Store opened up and it feels like an outlet. It was bustling with a lot of people milling around. There were bags available at the front, which I thought were durable totes for sale, but turned out that they were shopping bags to hold your pre-purchase items? There were rows and rows of shoes to try, and a salesman was helping me for a while, but after trying 3 pairs I just got the feeling that the store was a dumping ground for the odd styles and odd sizes, and having figured out which size fit me, I left all the shoes there, and only purchased a lanyard, which was at least $25.
sidewndr46 12d ago
I saw this too. It felt like where corporate would showcase their shoes to a potential corporate merger or acquisition. Real shoe stores have huge inventory across dozens of specific shoes.

iamben 12d ago

Allbirds were just dreadfully uncool. Basically shoes manufactured for tech bros? Even with another 5 years, I'm not sure they would have taken the market Hoka and On did.

jareklupinski 12d ago
yea but so comfortable :( no other shoe could carry my feet for miles with no outwardly visible branding

jarym 12d ago

We keep reading different variations of the same story over and over - different companies and industries but make the same fatal mistakes. 1) Let the 'spreadsheet people' take over, every decision is now allegedly based on 'data' 2) Kill the innovation because they can’t put a $ value on it 3) Rake in a few years of fast profits and soak in glory 4) Company implodes, CEO rides into the sunset, board that should have protected the company somehow largely intact. Data wasn't the killer. Stupidity, greed and shortsightedness in roughly equal parts usually are.

Frieren 12d ago
> Data wasn't the killer. "Past performance does not guarantee future results" and yet people treats data as a crystal ball that can predict the future. Data can help a company to decide what to do next week with little though and great results. It cannot set a long-term strategy without a lot of interpretation, guessing and adaptability. That same very good short-term decision may have been the first step towards destruction.
sushibowl 12d ago
This is called The McNamara fallacy (if it can't be measured, it's not important). This and Goodhart's law are the bane of pure data-driven decision making.
- hammock 12d ago
  There are some important corollaries to McNamara that need to be articulated. Something like “If you can’t measure it, we still know it’s important, we’re not idiots, McNamara was imprecisely defined in its common form” Yet at the same time, “If you can measure it, you can convince enough people it’s the only thing that’s important and then overfit to it”
- bluefirebrand 12d ago
  My Dad was basically a tool salesman for most of my life. He was really, really good at it. and I don't know if he ever measured anything. He just talked to people and tried his best to give people what they say they want Crazy how successful he has been off of just that simple approach. It's something that drives me nuts about a lot of current product design strategies. Yes, sure. You can occasionally have a Steve Jobs style product visionary who delivers something that people never imagined But for most of us I think we'd see a lot more success just talking to customers and delivering what they ask for, instead of filtering thier thoughts through a "product owner" who winds up having us build something else My experience with a lot of current product direction advice is along the lines of "don't just give them what they ask for, because they don't know what they want. You have to figure out what they want and deliver that instead". I think this is a really stupid approach. If you are talking to people who "don't know what they want", then you have to find different people to talk to. In my experience the best ideas come from people who know exactly what they want. The job of product should be to find those people and ask them, not to talk to the wrong people and guess at what they "really want"

DoneWithAllThat 12d ago

Hoka is big in the running market but that’s basically all. Same with New Balance. I think where Hoka got lucky was with the explosion of popularity of running and Nike failing to understand their need to offer a fashion running product not just a performance running product. Hoka did and reaped massive rewards as a result.

ifwinterco 12d ago
New Balance were Dad shoes 10 years ago but somehow they are now fashionable in the UK (also Asics). I'd literally never heard of Hoka or On in my life though before this thread and they do not look fashionable

bellgrove 12d ago

Hoka makes excellent running shoes. How they managed to convince people they’re great every day shoes is a bit of a mystery to me.

JumpCrisscross 12d ago

> Nike's destruction over the past 5 years was really surprised Wendover did a good overview of Nike's strategic implosion a few months ago [1]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGhy62UZnbg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGhy62UZnbg

JeremyNT 12d ago

Hoka (like many other brands with running lineages) was careful not to devalue its brand. Nike has some quality products, but they also consistently released garbage products and stamped a swoosh on them. So there's the squeeze: people who want quality can go to a brand that's actually known for quality and avoid the guessing game, people who want garbage can get cheaper garbage drop shipped from China.

coffeebeqn 12d ago
They also hiked their prices on things like Jordan’s until they’re in a new price category $200+ and against really quite high quality shoes

BobAliceInATree 12d ago

Allbirds didn't really "pivot" into an AI datacenter. They sold off their shoe business at firesale to another company, which will still make & sell the shoes. Then the name and public listing remaining was basically a shell, and basically SPACed into the AI datacenter company with more funding.

rawoke083600 12d ago

Interesting and not saying you wrong lol. I live in South Africa (cape town), a modernish city by modern standards, but ive never heard of Hoka nor On Brand. In some ways that should be good news to them as clearly some untapped markets still

DivingForGold 12d ago

Go Woke - - - Go Broke.