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Will this bring oil prices down in Europe? Oil tankers could still go to the mediteranian via the suez canal. This will not help asia, but I can imagine if it i

Will this bring oil prices down in Europe? Oil tankers could still go to the mediteranian via the suez canal. This will not help asia, but I can imagine if it is too dangerous the go through bab al-mandab strait it is more lucrative to sell the crude oil to europe at a discount?

alephnerd 15d ago
> Will this bring oil prices down in Europe ... This will not help Asia This hurts Europe more than Asia. The UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and others are similarly opposed to the Houthis having conducted airstrikes on the Houthis (eg. 2025) as well as helping target them directly or indirectly. And a large portion of global shipping is owned by Greek conglomerates - a country that is a close ally of Israel. Most GCC states also have some form of defense agreement with the UK or France. If those turn out to be meaningless, it reduces their incentive to cut preferential deals with European states. Additionally, this further enhances Turkiye and Pakistan's hand, as Saudi Arabia has signed defense pacts with both and Pakistan has threatened action against Iran yesterday if further incidents threaten Saudi Arabia. If they were able to dislodge the Houthis without direct European intervention, then it is a massive black stain on the EU's power projection capacity and it's claim that it should be treated as a great power. It also gives Turkiye additional leverage against the EU. Finally, the Houthis struck the East-West Pipeline [0]. Much of the KSA's oil is in Eastern Saudi Arabia around Dhahran. Most large Asian states like China, India, Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. European states lack access to GCC oil as a result of Perim island being controlled by the Houthis. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-reach-strategic-island-mouth-vital-shipping-lane-2026-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-rea...
- eagleal 15d ago
  Yeah the EU leadership has been really shortsighted on these past decades (especially since the 10s), especially in their strategic energy and industrial sectors. Be it the Ukranian conflict, the ME crisis, the NA wars and instabilities, etc. The EU is the one that geopolitically speaking lost the most. Unless they're full puppets for foreign interests, I simply do not understand how they could leave foreign actors to dictate policies that affect thier own territory and enterprises without any sort of critical thought. But even then, they could not have possibly been all mere puppets. And yet.
  - markus_zhang 15d ago
    I guess you only need maybe 20% of them to be puppets to mess around. It’s a lot easier to damage than to build.
  - alephnerd 15d ago
    The issue was 1990s-2000s Germany argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate Russia into the European fabric, but 1990s-2000s France+UK+Italy argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate the Mediterranean into the European fabric. When the UK left the EU and France+Italy were in the midst of their economic doldrums due to the Eurozone crisis, this left the hard power states within the EU comparatively weakened. But the collapse of Minsk II and the ongoing war in the Middle East led to a cascading crisis for a unified Europe.
    - eagleal 15d ago
      Minsk per the people that brokered it was just a temporary patch to prepare Ukraine for the invasion. So no. That's not it. It's business and by now it should be clear to anyone that there's no morality involved in this space. There's nothing wrong with Russia as energy partner, as long as you don't shoot yourself in the foot by blowing up the alternatives. South of EU had proper energy supplies from ME/NA. For example crisis in ME was mitigated by Russian energy or NA energy (Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, etc). The new hegemons like Turkey, Israel, etc came only later, yet we can't say they're Saints can we? Also to appease the US administration line a lot of green energy projects were put on hold, and were only restarted this year after the Hormuz situation. The only real explanation is shortsightness for personal interests (but even then you'd have to have all your capitals abroad), or being a tool for foreign interests.
  - fabian2k 15d ago
    It was cheaper, I don't think it's much more complex than that. And with fossil fuels, countries without significant local production are always dependent on someone else, with most potential suppliers being problematic in some way. Of course we should have gone for renewable energy more forcefully, but that wouldn't have resolved the issue. That change will take time, and you can't arbitrarily accelerate it.
- throwaway198846 15d ago
  > Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. 1.How do they pay Iran considering the sanctions? 2.Do you think EU shouldn't sanction Iran even though they violated NNPT and their terrible record on human rights because Iran can threaten them with a sufficient price? > a country that is a close ally of Israel Are they? They never sent a single weapon or soldier to help israel, they have no formal or informal mutual defense agreement. Israel buy no military equipment from Greece. You mistake mutual interest because of a common enemy - Turkey to close alliance.
  - alephnerd 15d ago
    1. Waivers, state owned enterprises, shell corporations, barter trades, and using their own currencies for transactions 2. I agree. I'm just being prosaic as to why European states are in the pickle they are today. 3. They are closely entwined via logistics, but Cyprus would be an even closer Israel-Cyprus ties. The reality is, the Saudi-Turkiye-Kuwait-Pakistan alliance is a direct reaction to the Israel-Greece-Cyprus-UAE-India cooperation or the now signed Israel-Greece-Cyprus trilateral.
    - throwaway198846 15d ago
      I see, thank you for the prompt response, I think calling them close allies is overstating it.
- inglor_cz 15d ago
  A Pakistan-Iran war was not on my bingo card.
  - alephnerd 15d ago
    Pakistan and Iran fought a skirmish in December 2024 [0] that was quickly deescalated, but Pakistan is increasingly misaligned with the IRGC as it's working closer with Iran's political leadership [1]. I don't expect a war to happen, but Iran will double down support for Afghanistan as well as lay the red carpet for India to continue operating in the country. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cross-border_skirmishes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cro... [1] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...
briffle 15d ago
most large tankers are too large for both the Suez and Panama Canals.
- sonotathrowaway 15d ago
  There are tankers built specifically for the Suez Canal
  - computomatic 15d ago
    Suezmax tankers, panamax, etc. Anything bigger needs to go around
  - estearum 15d ago
    Which are already being used to transit the Suez Canal.
jonplackett 15d ago
This is part of the Houthis preventing Saudi Arabia from exporting any oil at all. So no I don’t think it’s gonna make oil lower. Higher probably. But oil is doing very weird things.
markvdb 15d ago
No. A cynic might think a significant part of this half-arsed Iran war was: - make sure fuel prices increase globally - The US economy is relatively well-shielded from the fallout by its own fossil fuel sources, local and in colonies like Venezuela. - export more US fossil fuels, especially to Europe, at inflated prices. US insiders reap the profits. - further kneecap European competitiveness in energy intensive sectors, steal market share. Oh well, small gift to China here too, but still a net win for the US.
- watwut 15d ago
  I just dont think these guy are even capable to plan that much.
  - p-e-w 15d ago
    Then you probably believe that the US government only consists of the half dozen clowns you see on TV every day.
    - deleted 15d ago
      [deleted]
    - discreteevent 15d ago
      That's the point this time around. They went full authoritarian and purged all the competent people.
      - Art9681 15d ago
        That's just the media noise. Yea there were purges. But its a big leap to go from "some" to "all" the best people. Government is the largest employer in the country. The nonsense you see constantly by politicians and other leaders is a tiny fraction of what the government workforce is. This is why despite the chaos you see in the media, life hasn't changed much for the great majority of people all things considered. The government remains functional where it needs to be.
skeeter2020 15d ago
I've never seen oil prices decrease due to any regional disruption; the market is global. If the price in Alberta went up when the Straight closed, I wouldn't hold my breathe for Europe in this scenario.
- serf 15d ago
  >I've never seen oil prices decrease due to any regional disruption; the market is global. oil spiked and then crashed during the gulf war & the iraq war in 03. the gulf war probably because of western price control methods kicking in, the iraq war because of an increase in confidence that the region would produce oil after western 'securing' of oil fields allowing further volume investment from the UAE and friends. I guess it really just depends on what the definition of 'regional disruption' is.
epolanski 15d ago
Oil is sold globally. It doesn't matter if in Texas wells are producing it at a penny for barrel, if the global prices are high that oil is going to be sold to Philippinos, Japanese, Italians or South Africans. So, at the same time, it doesn't matter if some new routes open or close, it doesn't particularly favor one or the other buyer, it's still sold globally on a bid.
- echelon 15d ago
  Until we bar export.
  - bijowo1676 15d ago
    why would Exxon allow export ban and lose exorbitant profits ?
  - epolanski 15d ago
    What's next? Full blown communism? In any case, bad idea if other retaliate with their exports. Also, US cannot really use the oil it produces, because it can refine very little of it. Any export ban would require massive investments.
    - QDwQ1 14d ago
      Yes, the US was a full-blown communist nation until 2015, when Congress repealed the long-standing ban on exports of crude oil.
- chasd00 15d ago
  i don't see why deals can't change. It's just a contract, the IRS could create a tax incentive for US producers to sell to US refineries at a discount. US producers could do it on their own if they so chose as well.
  - epolanski 15d ago
    I don't understand how do you think that would work and who would pay the bill.
haunter 15d ago
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/james-franco-first-time https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/james-franco-first-time
danans 15d ago
> if it is too dangerous the go through bab al-mandab strait it is more lucrative to sell the crude oil to europe at a discount? I suspect they would sooner curtail production rather then sell at a discount due to route restrictions.
- Paradigma11 15d ago
  Not really. It is very hard and expensive to get these oil well pumping again. That is why we had negative oil prices during covid. Plus, when we are talking about the Gulf states, they have extremely low production cost. The discount would be against world prices, not production cost.
talon8635 15d ago
Aren’t these groups working with, no against, China? And against, not with, Western Europe? So being prices down where, in eastern Europe?
jcranmer 15d ago
VLCCs are too large to fit through the Suez Canal. I don't know how much of Saudi export is using VLCCs versus Suezmax or smaller tankers, but I've heard that much of the Red Sea oil export is currently going through Bab al-Mandab, not that I have a source on hand.
seatac76 15d ago
I wouldn’t count on safe Med passage, I think last month a drone attacked a ship in Egypt. And the channel to Suez isn’t exactly wide or out of range for Houthis. GCC will have to talk to Iran now, there is no reasonable way out of this quagmire other than a regional accommodation with Iran. Talk about a regression but here we are.
voxleone 15d ago
New routes and suppliers are entering the stage. Brazil is increasingly emerging as a strategically important, geographically diversified source of crude oil. Its growing offshore production and status as a net exporter make it an attractive alternative to Middle Eastern supply, particularly when geopolitical disruptions threaten oil flows through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Brazil isn't risk-free. There are environmental, political and logistical risks, but its oil production is geographically removed from the principal Middle Eastern conflict zones and its exports can help diversify global supply. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-refiner-sinopec-boost-oil-imports-outside-gulf-2026-08-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-refiner-sino... https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why-oil-importers-are-learning-live-with-longer-trade-routes-2026-09-03/?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why... https://www.thetimes.com/business/energy/article/hormuz-crisis-fuelling-rise-new-oil-players-qw0hl90hj?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.thetimes.com/business/energy/article/hormuz-cris...
MBCook 15d ago
Why wouldn’t they go up? Instability is instability. Oil is fungible. There’s no reason to think someone else won’t escalate this further disrupting supplies even more. That will push prices up. Even if they don’t, if oil can’t get through this straight it will have to go somewhere else, which will increase shipping traffic and demand for “your oil” right? And wouldn’t that also push up prices?
toss1 15d ago
Not today. The Iranian-backed Houthis also struck the Saudi East-West oil pipeline [0], pumping stations and refining capability. Reductions in export output initially estimated around 700,000 barrels per day now missing from the market. [0] https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Oil-Output-and-Key-Pipeline-Hit-as-Attacks-Cut-Supply.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Oil...
ovi256 14d ago
No, this could increase diesel and gasoline prices as much as 50% by Christmas

alephnerd 15d ago

> Will this bring oil prices down in Europe ... This will not help Asia This hurts Europe more than Asia. The UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, and others are similarly opposed to the Houthis having conducted airstrikes on the Houthis (eg. 2025) as well as helping target them directly or indirectly. And a large portion of global shipping is owned by Greek conglomerates - a country that is a close ally of Israel. Most GCC states also have some form of defense agreement with the UK or France. If those turn out to be meaningless, it reduces their incentive to cut preferential deals with European states. Additionally, this further enhances Turkiye and Pakistan's hand, as Saudi Arabia has signed defense pacts with both and Pakistan has threatened action against Iran yesterday if further incidents threaten Saudi Arabia. If they were able to dislodge the Houthis without direct European intervention, then it is a massive black stain on the EU's power projection capacity and it's claim that it should be treated as a great power. It also gives Turkiye additional leverage against the EU. Finally, the Houthis struck the East-West Pipeline [0]. Much of the KSA's oil is in Eastern Saudi Arabia around Dhahran. Most large Asian states like China, India, Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. European states lack access to GCC oil as a result of Perim island being controlled by the Houthis. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-reach-strategic-island-mouth-vital-shipping-lane-2026-09-11/ https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-rea...

eagleal 15d ago
Yeah the EU leadership has been really shortsighted on these past decades (especially since the 10s), especially in their strategic energy and industrial sectors. Be it the Ukranian conflict, the ME crisis, the NA wars and instabilities, etc. The EU is the one that geopolitically speaking lost the most. Unless they're full puppets for foreign interests, I simply do not understand how they could leave foreign actors to dictate policies that affect thier own territory and enterprises without any sort of critical thought. But even then, they could not have possibly been all mere puppets. And yet.
- markus_zhang 15d ago
  I guess you only need maybe 20% of them to be puppets to mess around. It’s a lot easier to damage than to build.
- alephnerd 15d ago
  The issue was 1990s-2000s Germany argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate Russia into the European fabric, but 1990s-2000s France+UK+Italy argued it was in Europe's best interest to integrate the Mediterranean into the European fabric. When the UK left the EU and France+Italy were in the midst of their economic doldrums due to the Eurozone crisis, this left the hard power states within the EU comparatively weakened. But the collapse of Minsk II and the ongoing war in the Middle East led to a cascading crisis for a unified Europe.
  - eagleal 15d ago
    Minsk per the people that brokered it was just a temporary patch to prepare Ukraine for the invasion. So no. That's not it. It's business and by now it should be clear to anyone that there's no morality involved in this space. There's nothing wrong with Russia as energy partner, as long as you don't shoot yourself in the foot by blowing up the alternatives. South of EU had proper energy supplies from ME/NA. For example crisis in ME was mitigated by Russian energy or NA energy (Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon, etc). The new hegemons like Turkey, Israel, etc came only later, yet we can't say they're Saints can we? Also to appease the US administration line a lot of green energy projects were put on hold, and were only restarted this year after the Hormuz situation. The only real explanation is shortsightness for personal interests (but even then you'd have to have all your capitals abroad), or being a tool for foreign interests.
- fabian2k 15d ago
  It was cheaper, I don't think it's much more complex than that. And with fossil fuels, countries without significant local production are always dependent on someone else, with most potential suppliers being problematic in some way. Of course we should have gone for renewable energy more forcefully, but that wouldn't have resolved the issue. That change will take time, and you can't arbitrarily accelerate it.
throwaway198846 15d ago
> Japan, and South Korea have continued operations in Iran that allowed them continued passage. 1.How do they pay Iran considering the sanctions? 2.Do you think EU shouldn't sanction Iran even though they violated NNPT and their terrible record on human rights because Iran can threaten them with a sufficient price? > a country that is a close ally of Israel Are they? They never sent a single weapon or soldier to help israel, they have no formal or informal mutual defense agreement. Israel buy no military equipment from Greece. You mistake mutual interest because of a common enemy - Turkey to close alliance.
- alephnerd 15d ago
  1. Waivers, state owned enterprises, shell corporations, barter trades, and using their own currencies for transactions 2. I agree. I'm just being prosaic as to why European states are in the pickle they are today. 3. They are closely entwined via logistics, but Cyprus would be an even closer Israel-Cyprus ties. The reality is, the Saudi-Turkiye-Kuwait-Pakistan alliance is a direct reaction to the Israel-Greece-Cyprus-UAE-India cooperation or the now signed Israel-Greece-Cyprus trilateral.
  - throwaway198846 15d ago
    I see, thank you for the prompt response, I think calling them close allies is overstating it.
inglor_cz 15d ago
A Pakistan-Iran war was not on my bingo card.
- alephnerd 15d ago
  Pakistan and Iran fought a skirmish in December 2024 [0] that was quickly deescalated, but Pakistan is increasingly misaligned with the IRGC as it's working closer with Iran's political leadership [1]. I don't expect a war to happen, but Iran will double down support for Afghanistan as well as lay the red carpet for India to continue operating in the country. [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cross-border_skirmishes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iran%E2%80%93Pakistan_cro... [1] - https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediation-new-irgc-leaders-crisis-04-23-2026/ https://quwa.org/pakistan-defence-news/pakistan-iran-mediati...

briffle 15d ago

most large tankers are too large for both the Suez and Panama Canals.

sonotathrowaway 15d ago
There are tankers built specifically for the Suez Canal
- computomatic 15d ago
  Suezmax tankers, panamax, etc. Anything bigger needs to go around
- estearum 15d ago
  Which are already being used to transit the Suez Canal.

jonplackett 15d ago

This is part of the Houthis preventing Saudi Arabia from exporting any oil at all. So no I don’t think it’s gonna make oil lower. Higher probably. But oil is doing very weird things.

markvdb 15d ago

No. A cynic might think a significant part of this half-arsed Iran war was: - make sure fuel prices increase globally - The US economy is relatively well-shielded from the fallout by its own fossil fuel sources, local and in colonies like Venezuela. - export more US fossil fuels, especially to Europe, at inflated prices. US insiders reap the profits. - further kneecap European competitiveness in energy intensive sectors, steal market share. Oh well, small gift to China here too, but still a net win for the US.

watwut 15d ago
I just dont think these guy are even capable to plan that much.
- p-e-w 15d ago
  Then you probably believe that the US government only consists of the half dozen clowns you see on TV every day.
  - deleted 15d ago
    [deleted]
  - discreteevent 15d ago
    That's the point this time around. They went full authoritarian and purged all the competent people.
    - Art9681 15d ago
      That's just the media noise. Yea there were purges. But its a big leap to go from "some" to "all" the best people. Government is the largest employer in the country. The nonsense you see constantly by politicians and other leaders is a tiny fraction of what the government workforce is. This is why despite the chaos you see in the media, life hasn't changed much for the great majority of people all things considered. The government remains functional where it needs to be.

skeeter2020 15d ago

I've never seen oil prices decrease due to any regional disruption; the market is global. If the price in Alberta went up when the Straight closed, I wouldn't hold my breathe for Europe in this scenario.

serf 15d ago
>I've never seen oil prices decrease due to any regional disruption; the market is global. oil spiked and then crashed during the gulf war & the iraq war in 03. the gulf war probably because of western price control methods kicking in, the iraq war because of an increase in confidence that the region would produce oil after western 'securing' of oil fields allowing further volume investment from the UAE and friends. I guess it really just depends on what the definition of 'regional disruption' is.

epolanski 15d ago

Oil is sold globally. It doesn't matter if in Texas wells are producing it at a penny for barrel, if the global prices are high that oil is going to be sold to Philippinos, Japanese, Italians or South Africans. So, at the same time, it doesn't matter if some new routes open or close, it doesn't particularly favor one or the other buyer, it's still sold globally on a bid.

echelon 15d ago
Until we bar export.
- bijowo1676 15d ago
  why would Exxon allow export ban and lose exorbitant profits ?
- epolanski 15d ago
  What's next? Full blown communism? In any case, bad idea if other retaliate with their exports. Also, US cannot really use the oil it produces, because it can refine very little of it. Any export ban would require massive investments.
  - QDwQ1 14d ago
    Yes, the US was a full-blown communist nation until 2015, when Congress repealed the long-standing ban on exports of crude oil.
chasd00 15d ago
i don't see why deals can't change. It's just a contract, the IRS could create a tax incentive for US producers to sell to US refineries at a discount. US producers could do it on their own if they so chose as well.
- epolanski 15d ago
  I don't understand how do you think that would work and who would pay the bill.

haunter 15d ago

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/james-franco-first-time https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/james-franco-first-time

danans 15d ago

> if it is too dangerous the go through bab al-mandab strait it is more lucrative to sell the crude oil to europe at a discount? I suspect they would sooner curtail production rather then sell at a discount due to route restrictions.

Paradigma11 15d ago
Not really. It is very hard and expensive to get these oil well pumping again. That is why we had negative oil prices during covid. Plus, when we are talking about the Gulf states, they have extremely low production cost. The discount would be against world prices, not production cost.

talon8635 15d ago

Aren’t these groups working with, no against, China? And against, not with, Western Europe? So being prices down where, in eastern Europe?

jcranmer 15d ago

VLCCs are too large to fit through the Suez Canal. I don't know how much of Saudi export is using VLCCs versus Suezmax or smaller tankers, but I've heard that much of the Red Sea oil export is currently going through Bab al-Mandab, not that I have a source on hand.

seatac76 15d ago

I wouldn’t count on safe Med passage, I think last month a drone attacked a ship in Egypt. And the channel to Suez isn’t exactly wide or out of range for Houthis. GCC will have to talk to Iran now, there is no reasonable way out of this quagmire other than a regional accommodation with Iran. Talk about a regression but here we are.

voxleone 15d ago

New routes and suppliers are entering the stage. Brazil is increasingly emerging as a strategically important, geographically diversified source of crude oil. Its growing offshore production and status as a net exporter make it an attractive alternative to Middle Eastern supply, particularly when geopolitical disruptions threaten oil flows through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Brazil isn't risk-free. There are environmental, political and logistical risks, but its oil production is geographically removed from the principal Middle Eastern conflict zones and its exports can help diversify global supply. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-refiner-sinopec-boost-oil-imports-outside-gulf-2026-08-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-refiner-sino... https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why-oil-importers-are-learning-live-with-longer-trade-routes-2026-09-03/?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why... https://www.thetimes.com/business/energy/article/hormuz-crisis-fuelling-rise-new-oil-players-qw0hl90hj?utm_source=chatgpt.com https://www.thetimes.com/business/energy/article/hormuz-cris...

MBCook 15d ago

Why wouldn’t they go up? Instability is instability. Oil is fungible. There’s no reason to think someone else won’t escalate this further disrupting supplies even more. That will push prices up. Even if they don’t, if oil can’t get through this straight it will have to go somewhere else, which will increase shipping traffic and demand for “your oil” right? And wouldn’t that also push up prices?

toss1 15d ago

Not today. The Iranian-backed Houthis also struck the Saudi East-West oil pipeline [0], pumping stations and refining capability. Reductions in export output initially estimated around 700,000 barrels per day now missing from the market. [0] https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Oil-Output-and-Key-Pipeline-Hit-as-Attacks-Cut-Supply.html https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Oil...

ovi256 14d ago

No, this could increase diesel and gasoline prices as much as 50% by Christmas