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I don't think Zitron is wrong, exactly. He's just early. There are a lot of analysts who have faced the same criticism over the past 10-15 years. IMO the issue

by sfblah 1mo ago

I don't think Zitron is wrong, exactly. He's just early. There are a lot of analysts who have faced the same criticism over the past 10-15 years. IMO the issue is that they fail to understand the staggering size and scope of the government fiscal + monetary interventions across those years. Essentially, the government has jammed all the risk into the future to repeatedly rescue near-term results. I think something similar is happening with e.g. Amodei's predictions of mass unemployment due to AI. It won't happen in the immediate term, because deficit spending removes the economic incentive for firms to pare down their workforces. All that said, I don't think these people are "wrong," per se. They're just early. When the sh*t hits the fan on all this, it's going to be a big problem. And, for example, companies whose primary business is collecting money for Internet ads will come face to face with the reality of how low value their products are. I have some insight into this, as I work for such a firm, and I know the true extent of the bot traffic out there.

dcre 1mo ago
Macrofinance expert Nathan Tankus has an excellent post on why the financing situation around the AI boom is just not big enough to mess up the financial system. https://www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-zitron-ai-bond-issuance-is-not-ais-subprime-mortgage-crisis/ https://www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-zitron-ai-bond-issuan...
- d34db33ts 1mo ago
  [dead]
- sfblah 1mo ago
  I agree that the specific amounts invested in AI aren't enough to cause a calamity directly. The problem is you have the vise of a stock-market decline on one side (something basically everyone thinks is impossible), and AI-induced unemployment on the other side (something a lot of commentators, including Zitron sometimes, seem to think won't happen). Those two things in tandem would be worse than 2009 by a multiple. I doubt the US government will be able to bail it out.
blargey 1mo ago
You can make that claim for the general case that genAI capabilities will plateau or fishy financing in the sector will cause trouble at some point, but not for the specific talking heads that haven't constrained themselves to that sort of "broad future trajectory" prediction. FTA: > Note that I didn't attempt to catalogue statements that are nonsensical or were simply factually incorrect statements at the time, such as his December 2024 claim that “Generative AI's products have effectively been trapped in amber for over a year.” January 2026 claim that "[models are] basically the same as they were a year ago. They have the same efficacy". Zitron has not only made forward-looking statements that AI capabilities will not improve, he's also consistently made backwards-looking statements that capabilities have not improved which, while obviously false at the time, seem to play well to his base (along with his other false statements). If you connect all his statements together, it's implied that AI had the same capabilities in January 2026 as they did in December 2023 (and if you connect later statements, it's actually implied that capabilities in August 2026 are the same as in December 2023, though to be fair to Zitron he frequently contradicts himself and has also admitted to limited improvement at times).
- sfblah 1mo ago
  Yes. I was specifically referring to Zitron's circular-financing complaints. I can't defend his separate claims that AI just isn't that useful. If he were involved in the tech industry, he'd know how preposterous those claims are.
inferniac 1mo ago
No, hes been extremely wrong multiple times, he should not be treated seriously Its silly to say hes just early, when his predictions give specific timelines that don't work at all - "so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud" — on OpenAI forecasting $11.6B for 2025 (https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/) actual: $13.07B. source is his own scoop (https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/) - "artificial intelligence has three quarters to prove itself before the apocalypse comes" — Mar 2024 - "If OpenAI doesn’t either reduce their $8.5bn operating costs to $1bn or less and raise at least $5bn in the next year, they will die." — Jul 2024 2025 costs: $34B - Generative AI “isn’t getting much more efficient” (Jul 2024 ). OpenAI’s frontier-model API price fell from $30/$60 per million input/output tokens for GPT-4 to $4/$20 for GPT-5.6 Sol, alongside major capability gains. - “I would be shocked if [Musk’s] wealth doesn’t return to something more like he had in 2019 or 2020” (Dec 2022 ). Musk is now worth approximately $873 billion , several times his wealth when Zitron wrote this. sauce https://x.com/pitdesi/status/2093783287097602052 https://x.com/pitdesi/status/2093783287097602052
- sfblah 1mo ago
  I think it's fair to call his specific predictions "early." I'm saying his timelines are too short. Like almost all bearish market commentators, he doesn't understand the scope of the government stimulus. This is a systemic problem in market commentary. But, don't kid yourself. If the US stops massive deficit spending, a lot of what Zitron's saying moves forward on the timeline.
  - enraged_camel 1mo ago
    >> I think it's fair to call his specific predictions "early." I'm saying his timelines are too short. That means his predictions were either wrong, or meaningless.
  - adventured 1mo ago
    The US can safely reduce its deficit spending by $1 trillion and absolutely nothing big will happen. The US typically adds that much annual GDP every 16-24 months at this point. The notion that somehow the gigantic ~$31 trillion economy will fall apart if the outsized deficits don't continue, is very absurd. The exact same things were said of the Bush deficits. The US economy was supposedly dead in 2009-2010. Here in 2026 the economy is 50% larger inflation adjusted and it has left most of Europe in the dust. The housing bubble contagion was much worse than anything we're sitting on now with AI spend. Why do I say $1 trillion instead of $2 trillion? There are plausible scenarios where increased taxes bring down the deficits (the Dems will take the House + Senate + Presidency, we'll see how much taxes go up), there's no plausible scenario where the deficits go away completely.
atleastoptimal 1mo ago
What predictions would you say he is not wrong, but just early about? If his issue is that he is accurate on something shady going on with the finances of AI companies but the effects are mitigated due to government intervention, he should say. Your explanation gives him more credit than I think he deserves. He has been unambiguously incorrect many times over the past years in the time scales over which he makes predictions. In general, claiming that a prediction is just early in an unfalsifiable claim. It allows no admission of being incorrect whether you are correct or incorrect in a given moment. If you are right, then good, you've made a correct claim. If you're wrong, just claim there are clandestine corrective forces keeping the disaster you are predicting at bay. Either way you make it out clean and still have some sense of legitimacy.
blitzar 1mo ago
Being early is being wrong.
- goatlover 1mo ago
  Being wrong about when a financial bubble will burst is different than being wrong that there is a financial bubble. That's the question, because if AI is driving a bubble, then it will burst at some point.
  - deleted 1mo ago
    [deleted]
matherial 1mo ago
> I don't think Zitron is wrong, exactly. He's just early. By that metric, so was Nostradamus. The apocalypse is coming for sure, we're just quibbling about the timeline. Realistically, timing is everything. You don't need to get it precisely right, but you also don't get a pass if you, for example, keep predicting an imminent recession through a decade of unprecedented growth.
- gizajob 1mo ago
  "Being right at the wrong time is indistinguishable from being wrong” - Howard Marks.
  - CamperBob2 1mo ago
    Worse, actually, because the knowledge that you're right will keep you from changing course.
joshcsimmons 1mo ago
"Early" works for an open-ended bubble thesis. It does not rescue dated claims that already failed. Google's 500 million Gemini-user goal had an end-of-2025 deadline. Zitron called it so unrealistic that Sundar Pichai should be fired. Google reported more than 650 million monthly users by October. "AI had already peaked" is also a claim about the state of the technology at that time. Agent and coding benchmarks moved sharply after it. The fact that every technology eventually peaks does not make a past claim that it already peaked correct. The bubble may still burst. That would validate the bubble thesis. It would not retroactively fix the prediction record. btw Zitron has the only fan base that has come after me with doxxing and death threats so far. Truly misery loves company!
- Zigurd 1mo ago
  Some numbers have a lot of squish to them. Gemini can't be called a failure. But Copilot is a flop and yet Microsoft can probably show you similar numbers to what Gemini has.
  - achompas 1mo ago
    But we’re talking about Gemini, which is one of Dan’s point: the surface area is so large that any prediction is almost laughable. Zitron’s prediction here is laughable in fact because he claims both (1) Pichai is jamming AI everywhere and (2) the 500M number is impossible. Those statements are immediately contradictory to anyone who understands the scale of Google’s products.
- dofm 1mo ago
  > The bubble may still burst. That would validate the bubble thesis. It would not retroactively fix the prediction record. If it does not burst it will be because specific efforts have been taken to deflate it in the face of concerns like those he is raising. The bubble may not burst for example if the securitization of AI debt really happens. Then when it happens it won't be an "AI bubble" that bursts, it will be a full-on collapse of the US economy. Like when 2008 happened it wasn't really about mortgages anymore.
elonfboy 1mo ago
Did you read the post? The author cited very clearly a plethora of very specific predictions made by Zitron that were verifiably and factually wrong. False. Incorrect. Not “early”.
Zigurd 1mo ago
After looking at Nvidia's orderbook, it's a reasonable conclusion that nothing bad will happen for at least another year. In which case Ed Zitron is off by at least a year. But there are enough signs of trouble that could happen soon: Oracle debt is junk. OpenAI might not be on a viable trajectory to IPO. One or both of those could collapse the lower quality data center companies. Zitron is probably overconfident about a crash in the short term. Probably.
- adventured 1mo ago
  Oracle fits in Nvidia's pocket at this point: $67b sales, $22b op income. Vs of course Nvidia: $302b sales, $197b op income. Oracle was never as big of a deal as that brief market cap run implied. The herd pushed it up for no reason. The comparison to Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are pretty similar. Oracle fits in their pockets too. Who cares if their debt is junk. Ellison has nearly wrecked that ship on numerous occasions over the decades. He went on an elaborate acquisition binge in the previous epoch, buying his way to the next stage (preventing Oracle from being market-eliminated, or acquired), and that was an incredible mess that took a long time to sort. He's doing the same move now, trying to spend to stay on the board as the world rapidly changes under his feet.
  - dofm 1mo ago
    > Who cares if their debt is junk. Non-rhetorical answer to your rhetorical question, but: The near future of the political right wing of the USA is dependent on the Ellisons staying afloat to create an impervious right-wing media sphere that would survive the end of Fox. The Paramount-Skydance/Warner merger is now delayed until 2027. Trump/the GOP needs that merger to go ahead, but if Larry's debt position worsens it really might not. So you can expect the executive branch to push for the USA to backstop Oracle's debt in some way, whether directly or indirectly (taking some sort of stake in OpenAI to allow it to guarantee Oracle gets most of its money, for example — anything to get the credit rating back up). It will be the first stage of this becoming a problem for the American taxpayer.
    - meta_gunslinger 29d ago
jongjong 1mo ago
I recall a time when Google was struggling to monetize ads and then something changed and they started becoming profitable. The narrative was about improved targeting. I think it might have helped a little but I never fully bought this argument. I don't think I've ever bought a product which was advertised to me online and I was using some of these platforms for years. I'm probably a liability to them; using up compute but not clicking on ads or buying anything. Also when I ran social media ads many years back, I never got any users out of it. It literally seemed like mostly bot traffic back then; I can't imagine how bad the situation would be now with LLMs.
johnfn 1mo ago
Zitron is wrong, not "early", and the post has an extremely long list of examples.
- meta_gunslinger 29d ago
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sarjann 1mo ago
Not sure about being early when it comes to points about models reaching the peak of their capability. Honestly, I don't understand how he's qualified (in terms of knowledge) to make such claims.
bawolff 1mo ago
in fairness, if you make the same prediction over and over again, you will probably be right eventually by sheer random chance.
HDBaseT 1mo ago
"I believe we're reaching the upper limits about what generative AI can do and how accurate its outputs can be." This was said in February 2024. This is months before GPT-4o released. GPT 4.5 was released a year later. I don't know anyone holding on to models of GPT 4.5 caliber, yet know 4o. ChatGPT 4o and 4.5 score 8 and 14 points on Artificial Analysis benchmarks. [1] For perspective, Qwen 3.6 27B, which can be ran on single GPU setups, scores 3-5x that on modern benchmarks. I don't know why anyone would even make a claim like that in the first place. It's like saying "Computers are never going to get faster". I feel like we could run out of sand and still have faster machines over time. Just a silly thing to say. [1] https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=muse-spark-1-2%2Cgemini-3-5-flash-lite%2Cinkling%2Ck-exaone-2-0-0803%2Cglm-5-3-flash%2Cminimax-m3%2Cnemotron-3-5-lightning%2Ccommand-a-plus%2Cgpt-5-6-luna%2Cmuse-glimmer%2Cnvidia-nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b%2Csolar-open2-250b%2Ca-x-k2%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cqwen3-8-2-4t-a95b%2Cclaude-4-5-haiku-reasoning%2Cqwen3-8-27b%2Cmotif-3%2Cgemini-3-7-flash%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5-6-terra%2Cgrok-4-6%2Cclaude-fable-5%2Cglm-5-3%2Cgpt-5-6-sol%2Cmistral-medium-3-5%2Cgpt-5-5-pro%2Cgpt-oss-120b%2Ckimi-k3%2Cgpt-4o-chatgpt%2Cgpt-4-5 https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=muse-spark-1-2%2Cgemin...
daishi55 1mo ago
I don’t think you read the article, which documents many cases of him being wrong For example saying in 2024 that LLMs had peaked. That’s not early, that is already, definitively wrong.
raincole 1mo ago
> He's just early The whole point of making predictions is timing. I can tell you the US dollar will continue to devalue (a 100% accurate prediction). But it's a worthless statement unless I can tell you when and how much.
alastairr 1mo ago
"Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong" Tim O' Reilly

by sfblah 1mo ago

dcre 1mo ago

Macrofinance expert Nathan Tankus has an excellent post on why the financing situation around the AI boom is just not big enough to mess up the financial system. https://www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-zitron-ai-bond-issuance-is-not-ais-subprime-mortgage-crisis/ https://www.crisesnotes.com/sigh-no-ed-zitron-ai-bond-issuan...

d34db33ts 1mo ago
[dead]
sfblah 1mo ago
I agree that the specific amounts invested in AI aren't enough to cause a calamity directly. The problem is you have the vise of a stock-market decline on one side (something basically everyone thinks is impossible), and AI-induced unemployment on the other side (something a lot of commentators, including Zitron sometimes, seem to think won't happen). Those two things in tandem would be worse than 2009 by a multiple. I doubt the US government will be able to bail it out.

blargey 1mo ago

You can make that claim for the general case that genAI capabilities will plateau or fishy financing in the sector will cause trouble at some point, but not for the specific talking heads that haven't constrained themselves to that sort of "broad future trajectory" prediction. FTA: > Note that I didn't attempt to catalogue statements that are nonsensical or were simply factually incorrect statements at the time, such as his December 2024 claim that “Generative AI's products have effectively been trapped in amber for over a year.” January 2026 claim that "[models are] basically the same as they were a year ago. They have the same efficacy". Zitron has not only made forward-looking statements that AI capabilities will not improve, he's also consistently made backwards-looking statements that capabilities have not improved which, while obviously false at the time, seem to play well to his base (along with his other false statements). If you connect all his statements together, it's implied that AI had the same capabilities in January 2026 as they did in December 2023 (and if you connect later statements, it's actually implied that capabilities in August 2026 are the same as in December 2023, though to be fair to Zitron he frequently contradicts himself and has also admitted to limited improvement at times).

sfblah 1mo ago
Yes. I was specifically referring to Zitron's circular-financing complaints. I can't defend his separate claims that AI just isn't that useful. If he were involved in the tech industry, he'd know how preposterous those claims are.

inferniac 1mo ago

No, hes been extremely wrong multiple times, he should not be treated seriously Its silly to say hes just early, when his predictions give specific timelines that don't work at all - "so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud" — on OpenAI forecasting $11.6B for 2025 (https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/) actual: $13.07B. source is his own scoop (https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/) - "artificial intelligence has three quarters to prove itself before the apocalypse comes" — Mar 2024 - "If OpenAI doesn’t either reduce their $8.5bn operating costs to $1bn or less and raise at least $5bn in the next year, they will die." — Jul 2024 2025 costs: $34B - Generative AI “isn’t getting much more efficient” (Jul 2024 ). OpenAI’s frontier-model API price fell from $30/$60 per million input/output tokens for GPT-4 to $4/$20 for GPT-5.6 Sol, alongside major capability gains. - “I would be shocked if [Musk’s] wealth doesn’t return to something more like he had in 2019 or 2020” (Dec 2022 ). Musk is now worth approximately $873 billion , several times his wealth when Zitron wrote this. sauce https://x.com/pitdesi/status/2093783287097602052 https://x.com/pitdesi/status/2093783287097602052

sfblah 1mo ago
I think it's fair to call his specific predictions "early." I'm saying his timelines are too short. Like almost all bearish market commentators, he doesn't understand the scope of the government stimulus. This is a systemic problem in market commentary. But, don't kid yourself. If the US stops massive deficit spending, a lot of what Zitron's saying moves forward on the timeline.
- enraged_camel 1mo ago
  >> I think it's fair to call his specific predictions "early." I'm saying his timelines are too short. That means his predictions were either wrong, or meaningless.
- adventured 1mo ago
  The US can safely reduce its deficit spending by $1 trillion and absolutely nothing big will happen. The US typically adds that much annual GDP every 16-24 months at this point. The notion that somehow the gigantic ~$31 trillion economy will fall apart if the outsized deficits don't continue, is very absurd. The exact same things were said of the Bush deficits. The US economy was supposedly dead in 2009-2010. Here in 2026 the economy is 50% larger inflation adjusted and it has left most of Europe in the dust. The housing bubble contagion was much worse than anything we're sitting on now with AI spend. Why do I say $1 trillion instead of $2 trillion? There are plausible scenarios where increased taxes bring down the deficits (the Dems will take the House + Senate + Presidency, we'll see how much taxes go up), there's no plausible scenario where the deficits go away completely.

atleastoptimal 1mo ago

What predictions would you say he is not wrong, but just early about? If his issue is that he is accurate on something shady going on with the finances of AI companies but the effects are mitigated due to government intervention, he should say. Your explanation gives him more credit than I think he deserves. He has been unambiguously incorrect many times over the past years in the time scales over which he makes predictions. In general, claiming that a prediction is just early in an unfalsifiable claim. It allows no admission of being incorrect whether you are correct or incorrect in a given moment. If you are right, then good, you've made a correct claim. If you're wrong, just claim there are clandestine corrective forces keeping the disaster you are predicting at bay. Either way you make it out clean and still have some sense of legitimacy.

blitzar 1mo ago

Being early is being wrong.

goatlover 1mo ago
Being wrong about when a financial bubble will burst is different than being wrong that there is a financial bubble. That's the question, because if AI is driving a bubble, then it will burst at some point.
- deleted 1mo ago
  [deleted]

matherial 1mo ago

> I don't think Zitron is wrong, exactly. He's just early. By that metric, so was Nostradamus. The apocalypse is coming for sure, we're just quibbling about the timeline. Realistically, timing is everything. You don't need to get it precisely right, but you also don't get a pass if you, for example, keep predicting an imminent recession through a decade of unprecedented growth.

gizajob 1mo ago
"Being right at the wrong time is indistinguishable from being wrong” - Howard Marks.
- CamperBob2 1mo ago
  Worse, actually, because the knowledge that you're right will keep you from changing course.

joshcsimmons 1mo ago

"Early" works for an open-ended bubble thesis. It does not rescue dated claims that already failed. Google's 500 million Gemini-user goal had an end-of-2025 deadline. Zitron called it so unrealistic that Sundar Pichai should be fired. Google reported more than 650 million monthly users by October. "AI had already peaked" is also a claim about the state of the technology at that time. Agent and coding benchmarks moved sharply after it. The fact that every technology eventually peaks does not make a past claim that it already peaked correct. The bubble may still burst. That would validate the bubble thesis. It would not retroactively fix the prediction record. btw Zitron has the only fan base that has come after me with doxxing and death threats so far. Truly misery loves company!

Zigurd 1mo ago
Some numbers have a lot of squish to them. Gemini can't be called a failure. But Copilot is a flop and yet Microsoft can probably show you similar numbers to what Gemini has.
- achompas 1mo ago
  But we’re talking about Gemini, which is one of Dan’s point: the surface area is so large that any prediction is almost laughable. Zitron’s prediction here is laughable in fact because he claims both (1) Pichai is jamming AI everywhere and (2) the 500M number is impossible. Those statements are immediately contradictory to anyone who understands the scale of Google’s products.
dofm 1mo ago
> The bubble may still burst. That would validate the bubble thesis. It would not retroactively fix the prediction record. If it does not burst it will be because specific efforts have been taken to deflate it in the face of concerns like those he is raising. The bubble may not burst for example if the securitization of AI debt really happens. Then when it happens it won't be an "AI bubble" that bursts, it will be a full-on collapse of the US economy. Like when 2008 happened it wasn't really about mortgages anymore.

elonfboy 1mo ago

Did you read the post? The author cited very clearly a plethora of very specific predictions made by Zitron that were verifiably and factually wrong. False. Incorrect. Not “early”.

Zigurd 1mo ago

After looking at Nvidia's orderbook, it's a reasonable conclusion that nothing bad will happen for at least another year. In which case Ed Zitron is off by at least a year. But there are enough signs of trouble that could happen soon: Oracle debt is junk. OpenAI might not be on a viable trajectory to IPO. One or both of those could collapse the lower quality data center companies. Zitron is probably overconfident about a crash in the short term. Probably.

adventured 1mo ago
Oracle fits in Nvidia's pocket at this point: $67b sales, $22b op income. Vs of course Nvidia: $302b sales, $197b op income. Oracle was never as big of a deal as that brief market cap run implied. The herd pushed it up for no reason. The comparison to Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are pretty similar. Oracle fits in their pockets too. Who cares if their debt is junk. Ellison has nearly wrecked that ship on numerous occasions over the decades. He went on an elaborate acquisition binge in the previous epoch, buying his way to the next stage (preventing Oracle from being market-eliminated, or acquired), and that was an incredible mess that took a long time to sort. He's doing the same move now, trying to spend to stay on the board as the world rapidly changes under his feet.
- dofm 1mo ago
  > Who cares if their debt is junk. Non-rhetorical answer to your rhetorical question, but: The near future of the political right wing of the USA is dependent on the Ellisons staying afloat to create an impervious right-wing media sphere that would survive the end of Fox. The Paramount-Skydance/Warner merger is now delayed until 2027. Trump/the GOP needs that merger to go ahead, but if Larry's debt position worsens it really might not. So you can expect the executive branch to push for the USA to backstop Oracle's debt in some way, whether directly or indirectly (taking some sort of stake in OpenAI to allow it to guarantee Oracle gets most of its money, for example — anything to get the credit rating back up). It will be the first stage of this becoming a problem for the American taxpayer.
  - meta_gunslinger 29d ago

jongjong 1mo ago

I recall a time when Google was struggling to monetize ads and then something changed and they started becoming profitable. The narrative was about improved targeting. I think it might have helped a little but I never fully bought this argument. I don't think I've ever bought a product which was advertised to me online and I was using some of these platforms for years. I'm probably a liability to them; using up compute but not clicking on ads or buying anything. Also when I ran social media ads many years back, I never got any users out of it. It literally seemed like mostly bot traffic back then; I can't imagine how bad the situation would be now with LLMs.

johnfn 1mo ago

Zitron is wrong, not "early", and the post has an extremely long list of examples.

meta_gunslinger 29d ago
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sarjann 1mo ago

Not sure about being early when it comes to points about models reaching the peak of their capability. Honestly, I don't understand how he's qualified (in terms of knowledge) to make such claims.

bawolff 1mo ago

in fairness, if you make the same prediction over and over again, you will probably be right eventually by sheer random chance.

HDBaseT 1mo ago

"I believe we're reaching the upper limits about what generative AI can do and how accurate its outputs can be." This was said in February 2024. This is months before GPT-4o released. GPT 4.5 was released a year later. I don't know anyone holding on to models of GPT 4.5 caliber, yet know 4o. ChatGPT 4o and 4.5 score 8 and 14 points on Artificial Analysis benchmarks. [1] For perspective, Qwen 3.6 27B, which can be ran on single GPU setups, scores 3-5x that on modern benchmarks. I don't know why anyone would even make a claim like that in the first place. It's like saying "Computers are never going to get faster". I feel like we could run out of sand and still have faster machines over time. Just a silly thing to say. [1] https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=muse-spark-1-2%2Cgemini-3-5-flash-lite%2Cinkling%2Ck-exaone-2-0-0803%2Cglm-5-3-flash%2Cminimax-m3%2Cnemotron-3-5-lightning%2Ccommand-a-plus%2Cgpt-5-6-luna%2Cmuse-glimmer%2Cnvidia-nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b%2Csolar-open2-250b%2Ca-x-k2%2Cdeepseek-v4-pro%2Cqwen3-8-2-4t-a95b%2Cclaude-4-5-haiku-reasoning%2Cqwen3-8-27b%2Cmotif-3%2Cgemini-3-7-flash%2Cclaude-opus-5%2Cgpt-5-6-terra%2Cgrok-4-6%2Cclaude-fable-5%2Cglm-5-3%2Cgpt-5-6-sol%2Cmistral-medium-3-5%2Cgpt-5-5-pro%2Cgpt-oss-120b%2Ckimi-k3%2Cgpt-4o-chatgpt%2Cgpt-4-5 https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=muse-spark-1-2%2Cgemin...

daishi55 1mo ago

I don’t think you read the article, which documents many cases of him being wrong For example saying in 2024 that LLMs had peaked. That’s not early, that is already, definitively wrong.

raincole 1mo ago

> He's just early The whole point of making predictions is timing. I can tell you the US dollar will continue to devalue (a 100% accurate prediction). But it's a worthless statement unless I can tell you when and how much.

alastairr 1mo ago

"Being too early is indistinguishable from being wrong" Tim O' Reilly