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> unless one considers China and Taiwan to be the same countries The fact that the CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in T

> unless one considers China and Taiwan to be the same countries The fact that the CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in Taiwan might suggest that the CCP considers that it can make China and Taiwan one country, at a time of the CCP's choosing.

amelius 1mo ago
That act could throw us all back into the dark ages, though.
bdhdhduuyd 1mo ago
They already consider it as one country. The CCP sees Taiwan as a province of China.
- manithree 1mo ago
  Or mainland China is occupied west Taiwan.
  - wasfgwp 1mo ago
    “West Taiwan”? Why not just say ROC instead of inventing nonsense names..
  - queenkjuul 1mo ago
    And the US is occupied west Britain?
    - gnfargbl 1mo ago
      No. Treaty of Paris, 1783.
pydry 1mo ago
They're intentional about economic integration because it will in theory make unification easier without a war.
yieldcrv 1mo ago
Its the opposite China isn’t going to invade China until after we get our semiconductors up and running in Arizona for real (because US won’t have to think about that situation ever again) removing dependence imperils that island, CCP already has an EUV machine so the inevitable sanctions and export controls on ASML’s in Europe won’t matter either
- 0cf8612b2e1e 1mo ago
  It technically does not matter today. Sure the SOTA fabs only exist in a few places, but it’s not like a 2010/2015/2020 era chip is unusable trash. All of which are more geographically distributed.
  - cgio 1mo ago
    For any critical workload a chip is considered trash after 5-7 years. They still run , of course, but increased incidents on platforms that are supposed to be 99.99 are hard to work with. Now if you mean there’s unused stock of those , that would maybe work, but I am not aware of significant unused stocks.
    - 0cf8612b2e1e 1mo ago
      I am talking about making new chips on older nodes. If China can only build 7nm, but TSMC is at 3nm, that’s unfortunate, but they will survive.
      - yieldcrv 1mo ago
        I agree, a move on Taiwan sets semiconductor industry back like 5 years at this point, down from what I’d say was 10 just last year yeah equity asset values are going to tank but US will get serious about the supply chain immediately (which is already very much in progress), plus all the older nodes to alleviate some pressure off of the active compute demands
m00x 1mo ago
I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. They would lose all of TSMC if they do any military actions. It's not the fact that the CCP thinks that they can make Taiwan and China a country, it's the the fact that most of China does in fact consider them as one country. Taiwan is ready to defend themselves, but are very happy keeping their relationship with China the way it is.
- YetAnotherNick 1mo ago
  My bet would be that invasion wouldn't look like quick war, but slow control of political power either through light force like economic blackmail, or through something similar to what US did with Venezuela. Now that US has already opened the gate to labelling nation head as drug seller, this just eases things for China.
  - conception 1mo ago
    Also the US has very publicly shown they don’t have the ability to effectively wage war over any period of time.
    - sailfast 1mo ago
      Yes and no. The Iran war is deeply unpopular and won’t even pass congressional approval for money. It’s being fought from pocket change budgets because they know they can’t pass a funding bill for it. Also not the same kind of war. Any period time? US waged war for 20+ years in Afghanistan. Pretty effectively! To what end? Not an end an army can really achieve so… there you are. But a war that might actually be popular? To save the world from communist dictators and make sure we have chips for our precious devices? I wouldn’t count out the United States. Or nuclear weapons, which still exist and are a thing.
      - queenkjuul 1mo ago
        Ah yeah that $1T a year for the last forever is just pocket change
nl 1mo ago
> CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in Taiwan This whole idea of collapsing everything to some single semi-military geo-political concern is naive and not at all how the world works. Of course there are people in China who would prefer Xiaomi did all their manufacturing inside China, and there are others who prefer to build stronger economic ties between Taiwan and China to make Taiwan economically dependent on China. There are others who want Xiaomi to dominate world mobile markets by any means necessary. There are others who want Xiaomi to make the most profit possible, and still others who want Chinese firms to race to match US companies technology on every dimension. These concerns are all interlinked and play out over years in lots of micro decisions.
antris 1mo ago
China and Taiwan are considered one country, even according to US https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12503 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12503 How do you make one country into one country? It's already one country and is treated as such by even countries that consider China an adversary
- KPGv2 1mo ago
  > China and Taiwan are considered one country, even according to US Your link does not say what you think it does. My guess is you read the first sentence and saw "one-China police" and stopped. But the US's one-China policy is not the same thing as China's one-China principle. The US's one-China policy is that (continental) China is a single China governed by the PRC. It's silent on Taiwan. But, considering the laws we have on the books declaring our commitment to ensuring the sovereignty of Taiwan, it's a hard row to hoe to get to "the US considers Taiwan to be territory the PRC has a right to control." The US has an unofficial relationship with Taiwan simply to shut the CCP up. It's like when your partner is complaining about something you did, silence doesn't mean you agree that you messed up. Sometimes it just means you don't want a fight right now.
  - nixon_why69 1mo ago
    [dead]
  - antris 1mo ago
    > The US's one-China policy is that (continental) China is a single China governed by the PRC. It's silent on Taiwan Oh really? https://2021-2025.state.gov/countries-areas/taiwan/ https://2021-2025.state.gov/countries-areas/taiwan/ >The 1979 U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the Joint Communique, the U.S. recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. https://2021-2025.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://2021-2025.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ >The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence Doesn't sound like silence to me. >But, considering the laws we have on the books declaring our commitment to ensuring the sovereignty of Taiwan, it's a hard row to hoe to get to "the US considers Taiwan to be territory the PRC has a right to control." You're moving the goal posts. Sovereignty isn't the same as being a country. States in the US have some sovereignty and their own governance and international relations too, but it wouldn't be correct to say that the US consists of 50 independent countries. Also, using the word right sounds a bit like muddying the waters. You could argue the United States government doesn't have the right to control their land, as it has been stolen from the indigenous people. But that doesn't mean United States is not an independent country that controls the area within its borders.
eru 1mo ago
> The fact that the CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in Taiwan might suggest that the CCP considers that it can make China and Taiwan one country, at a time of the CCP's choosing. I'm not so sure. I would say that perhaps it's an indication that the CCP is ok with the status quo. The PR Chinese might be able to take Taiwan's land, but they can't conceivable take Taiwan's economy, at least not by force.

amelius 1mo ago

That act could throw us all back into the dark ages, though.

bdhdhduuyd 1mo ago

They already consider it as one country. The CCP sees Taiwan as a province of China.

manithree 1mo ago
Or mainland China is occupied west Taiwan.
- wasfgwp 1mo ago
  “West Taiwan”? Why not just say ROC instead of inventing nonsense names..
- queenkjuul 1mo ago
  And the US is occupied west Britain?
  - gnfargbl 1mo ago
    No. Treaty of Paris, 1783.

pydry 1mo ago

They're intentional about economic integration because it will in theory make unification easier without a war.

yieldcrv 1mo ago

Its the opposite China isn’t going to invade China until after we get our semiconductors up and running in Arizona for real (because US won’t have to think about that situation ever again) removing dependence imperils that island, CCP already has an EUV machine so the inevitable sanctions and export controls on ASML’s in Europe won’t matter either

0cf8612b2e1e 1mo ago
It technically does not matter today. Sure the SOTA fabs only exist in a few places, but it’s not like a 2010/2015/2020 era chip is unusable trash. All of which are more geographically distributed.
- cgio 1mo ago
  For any critical workload a chip is considered trash after 5-7 years. They still run , of course, but increased incidents on platforms that are supposed to be 99.99 are hard to work with. Now if you mean there’s unused stock of those , that would maybe work, but I am not aware of significant unused stocks.
  - 0cf8612b2e1e 1mo ago
    I am talking about making new chips on older nodes. If China can only build 7nm, but TSMC is at 3nm, that’s unfortunate, but they will survive.
    - yieldcrv 1mo ago
      I agree, a move on Taiwan sets semiconductor industry back like 5 years at this point, down from what I’d say was 10 just last year yeah equity asset values are going to tank but US will get serious about the supply chain immediately (which is already very much in progress), plus all the older nodes to alleviate some pressure off of the active compute demands

m00x 1mo ago

I've lived in Taiwan for a large part of my life. They would lose all of TSMC if they do any military actions. It's not the fact that the CCP thinks that they can make Taiwan and China a country, it's the the fact that most of China does in fact consider them as one country. Taiwan is ready to defend themselves, but are very happy keeping their relationship with China the way it is.

YetAnotherNick 1mo ago
My bet would be that invasion wouldn't look like quick war, but slow control of political power either through light force like economic blackmail, or through something similar to what US did with Venezuela. Now that US has already opened the gate to labelling nation head as drug seller, this just eases things for China.
- conception 1mo ago
  Also the US has very publicly shown they don’t have the ability to effectively wage war over any period of time.
  - sailfast 1mo ago
    Yes and no. The Iran war is deeply unpopular and won’t even pass congressional approval for money. It’s being fought from pocket change budgets because they know they can’t pass a funding bill for it. Also not the same kind of war. Any period time? US waged war for 20+ years in Afghanistan. Pretty effectively! To what end? Not an end an army can really achieve so… there you are. But a war that might actually be popular? To save the world from communist dictators and make sure we have chips for our precious devices? I wouldn’t count out the United States. Or nuclear weapons, which still exist and are a thing.
    - queenkjuul 1mo ago
      Ah yeah that $1T a year for the last forever is just pocket change

nl 1mo ago

> CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in Taiwan This whole idea of collapsing everything to some single semi-military geo-political concern is naive and not at all how the world works. Of course there are people in China who would prefer Xiaomi did all their manufacturing inside China, and there are others who prefer to build stronger economic ties between Taiwan and China to make Taiwan economically dependent on China. There are others who want Xiaomi to dominate world mobile markets by any means necessary. There are others who want Xiaomi to make the most profit possible, and still others who want Chinese firms to race to match US companies technology on every dimension. These concerns are all interlinked and play out over years in lots of micro decisions.

antris 1mo ago

China and Taiwan are considered one country, even according to US https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12503 https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12503 How do you make one country into one country? It's already one country and is treated as such by even countries that consider China an adversary

KPGv2 1mo ago
> China and Taiwan are considered one country, even according to US Your link does not say what you think it does. My guess is you read the first sentence and saw "one-China police" and stopped. But the US's one-China policy is not the same thing as China's one-China principle. The US's one-China policy is that (continental) China is a single China governed by the PRC. It's silent on Taiwan. But, considering the laws we have on the books declaring our commitment to ensuring the sovereignty of Taiwan, it's a hard row to hoe to get to "the US considers Taiwan to be territory the PRC has a right to control." The US has an unofficial relationship with Taiwan simply to shut the CCP up. It's like when your partner is complaining about something you did, silence doesn't mean you agree that you messed up. Sometimes it just means you don't want a fight right now.
- nixon_why69 1mo ago
  [dead]
- antris 1mo ago
  > The US's one-China policy is that (continental) China is a single China governed by the PRC. It's silent on Taiwan Oh really? https://2021-2025.state.gov/countries-areas/taiwan/ https://2021-2025.state.gov/countries-areas/taiwan/ >The 1979 U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the Joint Communique, the U.S. recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. https://2021-2025.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://2021-2025.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ >The United States approach to Taiwan has remained consistent across decades and administrations. The United States has a longstanding one China policy, which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-China Joint Communiques, and the Six Assurances. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence Doesn't sound like silence to me. >But, considering the laws we have on the books declaring our commitment to ensuring the sovereignty of Taiwan, it's a hard row to hoe to get to "the US considers Taiwan to be territory the PRC has a right to control." You're moving the goal posts. Sovereignty isn't the same as being a country. States in the US have some sovereignty and their own governance and international relations too, but it wouldn't be correct to say that the US consists of 50 independent countries. Also, using the word right sounds a bit like muddying the waters. You could argue the United States government doesn't have the right to control their land, as it has been stolen from the indigenous people. But that doesn't mean United States is not an independent country that controls the area within its borders.

eru 1mo ago

> The fact that the CCP is relaxed about core Chinese companies running their manufacturing in Taiwan might suggest that the CCP considers that it can make China and Taiwan one country, at a time of the CCP's choosing. I'm not so sure. I would say that perhaps it's an indication that the CCP is ok with the status quo. The PR Chinese might be able to take Taiwan's land, but they can't conceivable take Taiwan's economy, at least not by force.