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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
- WarOnPrivacy 3mo agoIn the plus column, we've had a healthy rainy season in the SE US. And while storms seem to move slower than before, we're not yet overwhelmed by stall+flood events.
- antonymoose 3mo agoHave we? Most all of South Carolina is in a drought. We experienced an exceptionally dry Spring and have had good but not sufficient rains all summer.
- camd32 3mo agoYeah and the west is so extremely dry.
- mathgeek 3mo agoHas seemed pretty normal here in central Florida as far as rain goes.
- WarOnPrivacy 3mo ago> Has seemed pretty normal here in central Florida as far as rain goes. We're defiantly in the rainy side of the scale. https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/products-services/data/statewide-averages/precipitation https://climatecenter.fsu.edu/products-services/data/statewi... As for this seasons storms in WCFL, every week I see storms that barely move - often just sitting in place for an hour or more. It's a change from the historical lines that marched across the state.
- mathgeek 3mo agoInteresting. Here it's been pretty much the daily 10-minute storm and not much more. Those numbers you linked would lead me to believe we're trending around last year.
- mapotofu 3mo ago[flagged]
- bamboozled 3mo agoCome to Japan and say it
- chasd00 3mo agoLooking forward to Fall rain in North Texas. Summer can’t get over soon enough.
- mh- 3mo agoI'm in Waco right now and the car said it was 107 today. If one more person says "but it's a dry heat"...
- doublerabbit 3mo agoIt's just wet heat.. humid here. Just back-breaking humidity. London has been terrible, 40c (104f). You step out of the shower and within minutes you're stepping back in for another.
- mh- 3mo agoThat's brutal for London. Sorry. Hopefully it cools down soon there. It's humid here (50-60%) but public spaces are all ice cold indoors. I'm just here for a graduation, fly out tomorrow.
- nvahalik 3mo agoA little south from you. Car said 102. Some of that depends on where you are. Parking lot, vs say, at the lake or rural areas.
- burnt-resistor 3mo agoCar temperature sensors tend to be inaccurate because they're often in the Sun or some other place affected by baking a car not in a garage. Check a thermometer in the shade. The weather data stations reported an average of 101 ℉ / 38 ℃ for Waco. It's hot, and especially feels worse with Southern subtropical humidity. OTOH, 101 in California with 0-15% humidity, it would just be a bit annoying. Higher humidity makes heat qualitatively exponentially worse until it's a sauna.
- ChrisMarshallNY 3mo ago
- Noaidi 3mo agoPeople really don’t appreciate yet. How really bad this situation is and will be. They’re talking about 1.76°C higher temperatures next year because of this El Niño. Those are climate change temperatures that are not supposed to be around until 2035. So it’ll give us a sneak peek into our future. But the biggest effect and this is noted by many insurance companies now is going to be in places like India. But this is something the world has never seen and I mean that literally so I don’t expect it to be anything but really bad and you should be ready.
- lukeify 3mo agoIt was inevitable we'd get to the point where climate change began substantially disrupting ecology and human livelihoods. Looks like we're ahead of schedule. People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen.
- gottorf 3mo ago> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen. The rhetoric is all well and good, but if you look at the numbers according to the WMO[0], deaths from climate-related hazards have been dropping steadily in the 50-year period from 1970 to 2019, even as atmospheric CO2 went from ~326ppm to ~410ppm and the world population more than doubled. That's not a per capita decrease; it's an absolute decrease, from over 50k deaths worldwide the 70s to fewer than 20k in the 2010s. All of this is due to the increased ability of humans to deal with what the climate might throw at them, mostly due to cheap energy unlocked by fossil fuels during that time. Remember, there are no countries that are both rich and have a low per capita energy usage. Surplus energy allows humans to build the infrastructure that makes them more resilient to disasters. If I had to wager, more people will suffer and die in the coming decades from efforts to combat climate change (i.e. hamstring energy production and usage) than from climate change itself. You can already see this in the anti-air conditioning sentiment in parts of Europe. [0]: https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/57564 https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/57564
- gmuslera 3mo agoRemember that this is just a piece of the complex system that is the global climate. And over it, there are more systems affected, including human ones like food production or economy. Something this extreme may cause from a severe disruption or a permanent instability in those systems, specially considering feedback loops in all of them.
- bamboozled 3mo agoAll we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.
- simulator5g 3mo agoAh yes it could have been so easy: All we needed to do was convince everyone in the world to behave a certain way.
- coldbrewed 3mo agoExactly, kinda like what we did with CFCs! Granted fossil fuels are much more ubiquitous than CFCs and comparatively more difficult to replace, but we have prior art for changing industrial practices in the interest of improving climate conditions.
- anigbrowl 3mo agoThat was an awful lot simpler, int aht we (or rather governments) just had to lean on a small number of manufacturers and tell them to find alternatives for CFCs in their products. Nobody was up in arms saying 'my hairspray isn't the same without CFCs' or whatever. I'll bet the majority of consumers never even noticed the difference.
- marcosdumay 3mo ago> Nobody was up in arms saying 'my hairspray isn't the same without CFCs' or whatever. Oh, boy. There was a huge number of loud people complaining about that. And worst thing is that most of them only knew about the CFCs being replaced years after it stopped being in sprays.
- anigbrowl 3mo agoMy memory was that once satellite imagery of the ozone hole became available and it suddenly became something you could actually plot on a map the serious debate suddenly ended and complaining about 'they took our CFCs' became a kook issue. But looking up old media coverage, I see that dissatisfaction entrepreneurs like Rush Limbaugh aggressively milked the issue and then recycled successful tropes in other contexts.
- bix6 3mo agoGreat write up but bummed to not see any info about the waves. It’s been a bonkers summer!
- dluan 3mo agoI don't know enough about climate science, but south swell usually is the result of west-to-east storms coming off of Australia. In Hawaii, this summer's south swell has been extremely consistent big swells. I imagine it's something like the west coast off South America heating up causes the balance of the southern hemisphere off Africa to counteract that.
- dgellow 3mo agoHere is an article about the heat wave in Europe: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/excessive-heat-dome-heatwave-western-europe-mid-august-2026-mk/ https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/excessive-heat-...
- mitjam 3mo agoI think you might be on to something: I am by no means a weather enthusiast or expert, nor do I live in California: the El Niños building up in 1997 and 2015 had similar seasons, 2023 not, the current fast onset and wave seasons (durable good surfable waves in winter) match especially well with 2015. 2023 was the exception but also slower onset. Also La Niña winters also had good winter conditions, but not as durable. So good surf conditions in NorCal outside of La Niña winters might be a visceral leading indicator for fast onset El Niño.
- mlsu 3mo agoCheck out stormsurf001 on YouTube. He’s been tracking the development of the El Niño for months now. I (SoCal) kinda hate El Niño. Seems like it always means way more weather (blown out days) and most reefs around here are maxed out beyond overhead. It’s nice to get lots of groundswell but I’ll take 2-3 and high pressure over 6-7 and rainy any day.
- jauntywundrkind 3mo agoMeanwhile West Antarctic ice shelf barely clutching on. No direct link, but click the "anomaly" map button just underneath the map. Hello all these similar 10+ °C anomalies that have sat around. Some colder spots too that have hung around! But yikes. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
- jauntywundrkind 3mo agoSorry, just below the graph, just above the map. I at least think of El Nino kind of running into South, building up in the Pacific. But the heat cuts across, then down, and pools in Antarctica here, is how I read it.
- izend 3mo agoThe strongest El Niño ever caused a massive famine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...
- greesil 3mo ago[flagged]
- culi 3mo agoTo be fair, we didn't have the World Food Programme in 1877 which lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. That being said, the existing energy crisis and fertilizer crisis can significantly compound the negative impacts of this El Niño even if we are able to anticipate it.
- huijzer 3mo ago> lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. If by “us” you mean big corporations, which will then buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later, then I agree.
- roenxi 3mo agoIf you think that is going to happen, you can buy up some supplies and store them yourself. I have relatives with some impressive and substantial pantries because they're prepared to be snowed in for an extended period of time. Running out of food is possible the least novel problem humanity has ever encountered. And what would you rather happen? If they don't store up a surplus then everyone will run out of food and prices will go up anyway. If there is less food because of a drought, prices are going up. If corporations start building up a stockpile then prices aren't going to go up as much as if there were no reserves. TLDR; Yes. Good. It is a great day when there is food available at the local supermarket.
- hvb2 3mo ago
- animanoir 3mo ago[dead]
- xrd 3mo agoI really tried to get through this. But sentences like this were confusing to me: In simple terms, the ocean surface anomalies are just the surface footprint of this massive subsurface warm core.
- ddxv 3mo agoThe author is saying the surface of the ocean (where it's easiest to measure temps, so we do that the most) is the 'footprint' or the full colum of warm water below it. Additionally, like a footprint the surface area it represents might be smaller too as warm water continues to rise.
- wat10000 3mo agoTo use an extremely inappropriate metaphor, they’re saying the warm temperatures at the surface are just the tip of the iceberg.
- sans_souse 3mo agoYea, I will admit my imagination started to go off as I read that
- AnIrishDuck 3mo agoArea vs volume. If these are the temperatures on the surface, think of the depths. There is a whole additional dimension to multiply (integrate) across. The added energy is far greater than you might think simply by looking at the surface.
- mitjam 3mo agoI stumbled across this too but going back to the picture made the sentence easy to understand. Maybe the sentence would have worked better if it was located before the picture. (The picture shows a ramp going up to the right deep under the ocean surface - the subsurface warm core)
- da_chicken 3mo agoI don't find that sentence confusing, but I definitely found the article poorly written. Here's the sixth nearly identical map and now let's repeat the exact same thing already stated five times or more while including one new sentence of detail. The density of actual information in the writing is so low that it's hard to follow. The article is so repetitive and padded out with empty prose that I found myself ignoring whole paragraphs. It's like the author decided to describe what an el niño is, then describe what an el niño is, then describe a super el niño, then describe what an el niño is, then describe what an el niño is, then describe what an el niño is, then describe the possible consequences of a super el niño, then describe what an el niño is, then describe what an el niño is, and finally describe what an el niño is.
- dstanko 3mo ago[flagged]
- hananova 3mo agoIt doesn't set cookies so it doesn't have to ask.
- tzs 3mo agoIt sets several cookies. Did you mean to say it doesn't set the kind of cookies for which permission is required?
- hananova 3mo agoI did not see any cookies on my machine. Maybe it sets cookies outside of the EU?
- tzs 3mo agoIt uses a session cookie to remember that you are logged in. Commenting requires being logged in, so it definitely tried to set one on your machine. Maybe you've got an extension or something that prevents the cookie from actually getting stored?
- hananova 3mo agoI think you and I interpreted "this site" differently. I interpreted it as the site being linked to, this referring to the subject of the comment. I think you're interpreting it as hacker news? At this point I'm not sure what was actually meant. The website of the article doesn't set any cookies on my machine, and HN's session cookie likely doesn't need ePrivacy directive consent since it's actually functional.
- Skinney 3mo agoIt only has to ask if the cookies are used for behaviour not relevant for the site (like specialized ads), so it probably doesn’t have to ask.
- martyvis 3mo agoWe're expecting a dry and hot spring and summer this year in Australia (and our winter has been milder than average to boot). https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-31/nsw-el-nino-weather-extreme-heat-australia/106973840 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-31/nsw-el-nino-weather-e...
- Madmallard 3mo agoSomeone pin this and keep it mind for the actual weather patterns that happen later this year and compare the two.
- livinglist 3mo agoI was scuba diving on a liveaboard in the Galápagos around May this year. The water was so warm that even a 5mm wetsuit made me feel hot, which is unusual for the Galápagos, where divers typically wear 7mm wetsuits or drysuits.
- voidfunc 3mo agoFantastic, might mean I get to golf all winter up here in New England if it stays warm enough thanks to this.
- camillomiller 3mo agoWhat in the content farm is this linked website!?
- hbiki 3mo ago[flagged]
- Chris660 3mo agoI found myself moved by this recent interview with Prof. Kevin Anderson on the topic of climate change (and associated politics): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBFos_T7cT0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBFos_T7cT0 He paints quite a bleak picture of the situation we are in (I tend to agree), but there's also a glimmer of hope in there.
- birdsongs 3mo agoThis was a really great listen, thank you!
- boredumb 3mo agoWe've been on and off with water service because of it, we've got a bit of rain the last few days but the resovoirs in Puerto Rico were looking real skinny last week. Nothing humbles you like coming inside from doing yard work in the August Caribbean sunshine to realize your shower isn't running. RIP to my tomatos.
- ludicrousdispla 3mo agoCan you get water from your air conditioning unit, or is it just too dry there?
- boredumb 3mo agoYup! I have a line running from it to water one of our beds, it's been raining so it's about as muggy as it gets today.
- maxglute 3mo agoNeeds a TLDR Canadian winter generally: less snow, milder, above normal temp South ontario/quebec more snow.
- WheatMillington 3mo agoAs a New Zealander - oh no please stop threatening me with a warm dry summer.
- dev1ycan 3mo agoLima, Peru... daytime and night time temps are +8-+3 (single day, might be the coldest of the year) degrees celcius, usually should be like 18-16 celcius daytime, it's at 26-21 (single day, might be the coldest of the year) with +6-+8 being the most common... already past mid winter and there hasn't been a single "cold" day yet. Pelicans are mass starving so are sea lions as cold based fish have left the shores, no long sleeves or sheets needed to sleep, it's been summer prety much all year... never seen this in 31 years of life... supposedly 98 was bad although this one is projected to be worse... summer temps might hit 39-34 celcius on average if things keep going this way when normally you have 31-27 degrees during summer, considering most houses don't have air conditioning I can definitely see a lot of heat related deaths happening and a potential food crisis forming.
- tsoukase 3mo agoI am also up in the mountains. I confirm it's the warmest summer for four consecutive times. Something happened in 2023. We may call it a tipping point. Although I enjoy milder winters (goodbye skiing), the summers are not mild anymore.
- Transformanshen 3mo ago[dead]
- djha-skin 3mo agoThis feels ai generated, and doesn't get to the promised point of "what does it mean for us" forecasting in Europe or much more than a few sentences for the US.
- ZeroDayDreamer 3mo agoThe 1877 El Niño killed millions. We have better tech now, but also more people and more fragile supply chains. Not sure which side wins
- futevolei 3mo agoAre you asserting that supply chains in the year 2026 are more fragile than in 1877?