5 ms·

Yeah + the world was much different than it is today. It trivializes the risk by saying we have seen it before and we were okay when its a fundamentally differe

Yeah + the world was much different than it is today. It trivializes the risk by saying we have seen it before and we were okay when its a fundamentally different problem in many aspects.

Macha 3mo ago
Also fails to distinguish between “society came out of it fine” (generally true) and “individuals came out of it fine” (much more mixed of a track record)
- rayiner 3mo ago
  Yes. And individuals largely don’t come out fine. We have this notion of “retraining” but that’s not real. It’s like how studies show it’s very hard to make friends as an adult. Most people whose jobs were shipped overseas in deindustrialization never recovers.
  - lesuorac 3mo ago
    > We have this notion of “retraining” but that’s not real. While I haven't been "retrained" my understanding was the real issue that it's lip-service. Like the Department of Labor doesn't actually show up to a closed down factory with staff to train people in some other vocation.
  - logicchains 3mo ago
    University-educated "Knowledge workers" should be much more capable of learning new things than the average factory production line worker.
  - nemo44x 3mo ago
    We create 25% more new jobs that never existed before than jobs that are forever destroyed as obsolete every year. In the USA.
    - pjmlp 3mo ago
      An yet the unemployment numbers are as they are, because even when wanting to get them, those jobs aren't made available due to ridiculous hiring practices, or any other set of reasons that leave empty slots.
  - victorbjorklund 3mo ago
    It’s harder to go from 30 years as an assembly worker to a career as a developer than go from developer to say product manager or whatever roles will survive.
    - adrianN 3mo ago
      In companies where I worked there were about two dozen developers for every product manager, sometimes more.
      - victorbjorklund 3mo ago
        That’s why I said ”or whatever role”
    - ryanbrunner 3mo ago
      1. There's far less product managers 2. What makes you so sure that product managers won't be automated away? The breathless pronouncements from the people running these companies aren't that there won't be software developers, it's that there won't be knowledge workers.
      - victorbjorklund 3mo ago
        That’s why I said ”whatever” roles. Doubt you think no a single role will exist in 10 years?
        pjmlp 3mo ago
        As someone that as teenager observe traditional shoe factories being automated away, or the production being sent offshore, the robot factory can function with 10% of the original staff, or even less. Now for the sake of argument multiply the 90% of the employees that were laid off, with the amount of companies that do the same, there aren't enough roles whatever those may be for everyone else now at the job center.
chongli 3mo ago
How is the GGP post (by Animats) trivializing the risk? They're saying "it's a survival issue" and saying the printers became homeless and struggling to feed themselves. Sounds much more like a warning than a dismissal to me. If 40-50% of the workforce ends up like that then we're living in a post-apocalyptic wasteland failed state.
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- rayiner 3mo ago
  > If 40-50% of the workforce ends up like that then we're living in a post-apocalyptic wasteland failed state. I a lot less than that. Most people don’t have jobs that can be done remotely, which I think is a good proxy for the ceiling of who can be replaced by AI. Almost nobody on my block besides me is going to be replaced (beer brewer, several nurses, navy servicemen, cops, and teachers).
  - Recurecur 3mo ago
    I think you’re failing to factor in the rapid improvement in robotics. I was at the hospital a few days ago, and was pondering the numerous nurses who were wheeling around portable nursing stations with monitors and various types of equipment. They’d stop at a room, take a patient’s blood pressure (among various other things), type some notes, and move on. I can easily imagine most nursing tasks being subsumed by robotics. The same goes for brewers, soldiers, cops, and teachers. Soldier, cop, and teacher robots are already being tested, or actually deployed…and it’s early yet. If a safe, highly dense source of power is developed, that will vastly accelerate the process. At best, there will be far fewer humans involved, monitoring the robots, much as software engineers are now monitoring the agentic AIs. I’m not sure how human society will adapt. The optimistic view (championed by Elon Musk) is that we’re headed for a “Star Trek economy” of essentially endless abundance for everyone. I hope things play out somewhere along those lines… I’ve personally been impacted very heavily by LLM technology. Two of my major skills, coding and writing, have been greatly devalued by it. I’m relying on one of the truly core human traits to compensate - adaptability. That’s an area where LLMs currently lag far behind. We’ll see how things go from here… ;-)
soulofmischief 3mo ago
Right now, many people do not own property and are one missed paycheck away from homelessness.
- rayiner 3mo ago
  [flagged]
  - soulofmischief 3mo ago
    I evicted someone from my home just a couple months ago and the process took one month. I'm not sure what "Do you mean in absolute terms?" is asking, but I think it's generally wise to follow the Hacker News guidelines here: > Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith
    - rayiner 3mo ago
      My wife did court appointed mediation of landlord tenant disputes. The rule of thumb was that if the person was less than a year arrears in rent, the landlord wasn’t going to see anything and the best course was to write off the unpaid rent.
      - freejazz 3mo ago
        It sure is convenient when you just completely make up counterfactuals to suit yourself
        rayiner 3mo ago
        Why would you accuse me of making it up? E.g., https://www.evictpro.us/blog/how-long-does-eviction-take-in-maryland https://www.evictpro.us/blog/how-long-does-eviction-take-in-.... This says that in Maryland, a typical timeline for a contested eviction is 90-150 days. Why do people always fight with a fabricated strawman of what the situation is like for poor people? Some hypothetical world where unemployment insurance, Medicaid, renter protections, etc., don't exist?

Yeah + the world was much different than it is today. It trivializes the risk by saying we have seen it before and we were okay when its a fundamentally different problem in many aspects.

Macha 3mo ago

Also fails to distinguish between “society came out of it fine” (generally true) and “individuals came out of it fine” (much more mixed of a track record)

rayiner 3mo ago
Yes. And individuals largely don’t come out fine. We have this notion of “retraining” but that’s not real. It’s like how studies show it’s very hard to make friends as an adult. Most people whose jobs were shipped overseas in deindustrialization never recovers.
- lesuorac 3mo ago
  > We have this notion of “retraining” but that’s not real. While I haven't been "retrained" my understanding was the real issue that it's lip-service. Like the Department of Labor doesn't actually show up to a closed down factory with staff to train people in some other vocation.
- logicchains 3mo ago
  University-educated "Knowledge workers" should be much more capable of learning new things than the average factory production line worker.
- nemo44x 3mo ago
  We create 25% more new jobs that never existed before than jobs that are forever destroyed as obsolete every year. In the USA.
  - pjmlp 3mo ago
    An yet the unemployment numbers are as they are, because even when wanting to get them, those jobs aren't made available due to ridiculous hiring practices, or any other set of reasons that leave empty slots.
- victorbjorklund 3mo ago
  It’s harder to go from 30 years as an assembly worker to a career as a developer than go from developer to say product manager or whatever roles will survive.
  - adrianN 3mo ago
    In companies where I worked there were about two dozen developers for every product manager, sometimes more.
    - victorbjorklund 3mo ago
      That’s why I said ”or whatever role”
  - ryanbrunner 3mo ago
    1. There's far less product managers 2. What makes you so sure that product managers won't be automated away? The breathless pronouncements from the people running these companies aren't that there won't be software developers, it's that there won't be knowledge workers.
    - victorbjorklund 3mo ago
      That’s why I said ”whatever” roles. Doubt you think no a single role will exist in 10 years?
      - pjmlp 3mo ago
        As someone that as teenager observe traditional shoe factories being automated away, or the production being sent offshore, the robot factory can function with 10% of the original staff, or even less. Now for the sake of argument multiply the 90% of the employees that were laid off, with the amount of companies that do the same, there aren't enough roles whatever those may be for everyone else now at the job center.

chongli 3mo ago

How is the GGP post (by Animats) trivializing the risk? They're saying "it's a survival issue" and saying the printers became homeless and struggling to feed themselves. Sounds much more like a warning than a dismissal to me. If 40-50% of the workforce ends up like that then we're living in a post-apocalyptic wasteland failed state.

deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
rayiner 3mo ago
> If 40-50% of the workforce ends up like that then we're living in a post-apocalyptic wasteland failed state. I a lot less than that. Most people don’t have jobs that can be done remotely, which I think is a good proxy for the ceiling of who can be replaced by AI. Almost nobody on my block besides me is going to be replaced (beer brewer, several nurses, navy servicemen, cops, and teachers).
- Recurecur 3mo ago
  I think you’re failing to factor in the rapid improvement in robotics. I was at the hospital a few days ago, and was pondering the numerous nurses who were wheeling around portable nursing stations with monitors and various types of equipment. They’d stop at a room, take a patient’s blood pressure (among various other things), type some notes, and move on. I can easily imagine most nursing tasks being subsumed by robotics. The same goes for brewers, soldiers, cops, and teachers. Soldier, cop, and teacher robots are already being tested, or actually deployed…and it’s early yet. If a safe, highly dense source of power is developed, that will vastly accelerate the process. At best, there will be far fewer humans involved, monitoring the robots, much as software engineers are now monitoring the agentic AIs. I’m not sure how human society will adapt. The optimistic view (championed by Elon Musk) is that we’re headed for a “Star Trek economy” of essentially endless abundance for everyone. I hope things play out somewhere along those lines… I’ve personally been impacted very heavily by LLM technology. Two of my major skills, coding and writing, have been greatly devalued by it. I’m relying on one of the truly core human traits to compensate - adaptability. That’s an area where LLMs currently lag far behind. We’ll see how things go from here… ;-)

soulofmischief 3mo ago

Right now, many people do not own property and are one missed paycheck away from homelessness.

rayiner 3mo ago
[flagged]
- soulofmischief 3mo ago
  I evicted someone from my home just a couple months ago and the process took one month. I'm not sure what "Do you mean in absolute terms?" is asking, but I think it's generally wise to follow the Hacker News guidelines here: > Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith
  - rayiner 3mo ago
    My wife did court appointed mediation of landlord tenant disputes. The rule of thumb was that if the person was less than a year arrears in rent, the landlord wasn’t going to see anything and the best course was to write off the unpaid rent.
    - freejazz 3mo ago
      It sure is convenient when you just completely make up counterfactuals to suit yourself
      - rayiner 3mo ago
        Why would you accuse me of making it up? E.g., https://www.evictpro.us/blog/how-long-does-eviction-take-in-maryland https://www.evictpro.us/blog/how-long-does-eviction-take-in-.... This says that in Maryland, a typical timeline for a contested eviction is 90-150 days. Why do people always fight with a fabricated strawman of what the situation is like for poor people? Some hypothetical world where unemployment insurance, Medicaid, renter protections, etc., don't exist?